Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for University at Buffalo, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of this writing the bulk of the warm advective pcpn has cleared areas south of Lake Ontario...with just some additional spotty light rain and snow expected across the Finger Lakes at times overnight.
Meanwhile further northeast...light to occasionally moderate snow continues across the North Country. This will persist into early Sunday morning...with some rain also eventually mixing in across the lower elevation as boundary layer temps warm. Expect up to another another 2-4" there through early Sunday...with the greatest amounts across the Tug Hill Plateau, and the lowest amounts across the lower elevations.

Otherwise...a 55+ knot low level jet will cross the Lower Great Lakes overnight. The warm advection pattern will keep low level lapse rates weak, but nonetheless, there may be enough mixing close to Lake Erie to support surface wind gusts in the 45-50 mph range from the Chautauqua County shoreline northward across the Niagara Frontier. The same low level jet will cross areas farther east, but even less favorable thermal profiles in the boundary layer will likely prevent stronger gusts from mixing down. Expect gusts of 25- 35 mph for the rest of the area. The low level jet will exit Sunday, and winds will quickly diminish as the eastern Great Lakes becomes situated in a col between systems by late afternoon.

Sunday, there may still be some light snow east of Lake Ontario early, but this will exit by late morning. If the precipitation lasts long enough into the day, it may mix with a little rain as temperatures warm. Otherwise, the rest of the day will be mainly dry with plenty of clouds lingering. It will turn notably warmer, with highs in the lower 40s on the lake plains and mid to upper 30s for higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Any remaining lake induced precipitation will end Sunday night as warm advection processes take over across the region. Lows Sunday night will be found in the 20s to low 30s.

Winter will hit the pause button Monday as a warmer air mass advects into the region. It will also bring with it some rain which will help to begin to melt some of the snow pack on the ground.

A compact mid-level wave tracking through the Ohio Valley Monday will bring the first wave of precipitation through the area. Given continuing strong deep layer warm advection ahead of the approaching attendant surface low, this event should be all be in the form of rain for most locales. There may be enough colder air at the onset to allow for some wet snow flakes east of Lake Ontario. This should be short-lived for lower elevations, but may remain mixed with wet snow on the top of the Tug Hill region
Overall
rainfall amounts with this first wave will range from a 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch over area basins. Given that these amounts are manageable, no hydro issues will likely occur but it will serve to start the process of ripening up the snowpack a bit.

Otherwise...given the milder airmass working into the region temperatures will rise into low to mid 40s across the forecast area.

This first wave moves off to our northeast Monday evening. There may still be some lingering showers ahead of the next system but most locales will see a reprieve. Have kept just low end PoPs for Monday night.

Another round of 'rain' arrives Tuesday and then last into Tuesday night. A deep mid-level trough and a couple surface waves will bring what looks like to be a rather damp raw day Tuesday. With this update...latest guidance shows another 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch, with slightly higher amounts across our far eastern locales. That said...there is still some variability in model QPF amounts. Taking a look at NAEFS/GEFS/HEFS most all Ensemble River Forecasts keep area creeks and rivers below action stage but there will be some rises. Its worth noting that SWE values are in the 4 to 6 inch range
At this point
there is a low threat of creek and river flooding, but certainly poor drainage ponding of water is likely with the snowmelt and rain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
For the lake snows, synoptic moisture and lake parameters will be favorable for again heavy lake snows east of the Lakes.
Wednesday night through Thursday are the most favorable period with EQL levels back up over 10K feet on a westerly flow. There is some hint in the models that the band of snow will lift northward towards Buffalo/Watertown for Friday, but at the same time dry air advection with an incoming surface high will lower favorable lake effect snow parameters.

A warm air front may bring some precipitation to our region to start next weekend, with deep southerly flow allowing for temperatures to be above normal.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Aside from some spotty leftover light rain and snow across the Finger Lakes...areas south of Lake Ontario will remain dry overnight...with general VFR conditions giving way to redeveloping MVFR stratus (with some IFR across the higher terrain) from north to south late tonight and early Sunday morning. This stratus will then remain in place through the rest of Sunday and Sunday evening...with some temporary brief improvement back to lower- end VFR possible across portions of far western New York overnight.

East of Lake Ontario, warm frontal snow and associated IFR/brief LIFR will continue overnight...then will gradually wind down during Sunday morning while mixing with some light rain across the lower elevations
Following this
low stratus will then persist through the rest of Sunday with MVFR across the lower elevations...and IFR across the higher terrain. Some limited improvement back to VFR will then be possible in the vicinity of KART after late Sunday evening.

Finally, a strong 55+ knot low level jet will cross the Lower Great Lakes overnight. The stronger winds aloft will partially mix down to the surface, especially across far Western NY where gusts of 35-40+ knots are expected, including at KBUF/KIAG. Elsewhere, gusts of 25- 35 knots will be common overnight through early Sunday. Low level wind shear will occur where surface winds are not gusty, mainly across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Winds will then diminish quickly from west to east during Sunday following the departure of the low level jet.

Outlook...

Monday.. MVFR/IFR with periods of rain.
Tuesday...Areas of MVFR, with rain developing late.
Tuesday night and Wednesday.. MVFR/IFR with rain changing to wet snow from west to east.
Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers...and heavier lake effect snow/LIFR possible east of the lakes.

MARINE
Low pressure will pass by just north of the Great Lakes tonight through early Sunday, with a warm front moving east across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. The pressure gradient will tighten as the low passes by, and a 55+ knot low level jet will move across the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring a period of gale force winds to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight through early Sunday. Winds will quickly diminish Sunday afternoon as the system moves off into the Canadian Maritimes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ001-002- 010>012-019-085.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ020.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ062.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ063>065.