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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1248 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Overnight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely overnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Rain.
Friday night..Southeast winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers overnight.
Saturday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Showers during the day.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers.
Monday..West winds around 10 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Monday night.
the water temperature off buffalo is 47 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 301506 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1006 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure builds in briefly today bringing dry and warmer weather through the first half of tonight. A series of low pressure systems will then bring several rounds of unsettled weather to the region from Friday right through the start of the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Weak high pressure builds across the region today resulting in mainly sunny skies. Stubborn lake clouds northeast of Lake Ontario will continue to break up from southwest to northeast this morning, with mainly sunny skies eventually developing here as well. It will breezy again today, however continued weak warm air advection will give temperatures a boost with highs mid to upper 40s lower elevations and mainly upper 30s across the higher terrain.

Dry and breezy conditions to start off tonight. A cold front trailing a weak area of low pressure moving through central Quebec will slowly approach the region overnight. Although much of the region will remain dry, the front may get close enough and with some help from the Lakes may see a few showers develop from the Niagara Frontier to the eastern Lake Ontario region during the second half of the overnight. Otherwise, a mild night on tap by the start of meteorological winter standards with lows only bottoming out in the mid to upper 30s.

Our weather deteriorates on Friday as southern stream system rides along the aforementioned boundary bringing a steady (mainly) rain to our region. Perhaps some wet flakes mixing in on the hilltops, but not expected to amount to much of anything. Plenty of moisture with this system, however it is a quick mover which will help limit rainfall amounts, with average basin rainfall of 0.25"-0.40" during the day. High temperatures will be mainly in the low to mid 40s with some mid and upper 30s across the higher terrain, coolest Tug Hill and western Dacks where a few wet flakes will be possible.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A low amplitude...Pacific based flow over the country at the start of this period will amplify during the course of the weekend. This will GUARANTEE above normal temperatures for our forecast area...
especially Saturday night and Sunday when the mercury will average a solid 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The milder than normal weather to start the month of December will be accompanied by fairly unsettled conditions though
Fortunately for most of us
this will translate into the bulk of the expected pcpn falling in liquid form.
The details...

As we open this period Friday evening...a robust shortwave will be in the process of exiting our region via the Adirondacks and New England. Widespread mixed pcpn east of Lake Ontario at that time will taper off to showers during the overnight. A second shortwave will quickly follow in its wake though...and this feature will be accompanied by a weak sfc reflection that will approach from the the Lower Ohio valley. A modest 35-40 kt LLJ ahead of the sfc low will ride up and over a well defined baroclinic zone that will result in fairly deep frontogenetic forcing. This will support fairly widespread rain showers or even a period of steady rain over the western counties as we push through the wee hours of Saturday morning.

After daybreak Saturday...the weak sfc low and attendant mid level shortwave will pass over the forecast area by early afternoon. The aforementioned frontogenetic forcing will continue to support widespread showers...but this activity will wane during the course of the afternoon as mid level drying and the onset of subsidence will build across the region. We can expect fairly mild weather though...as afternoon temperatures should range from the lower 40s across the North country to between 45 and 50 over the western counties.

While there may a few leftover showers over the Eastern Lake Ontario region Saturday night...the passing crest of a broad mid level ridge should be able to keep the bulk of the region pcpn free.

Conditions will then deteriorate on Sunday...as a loosely organized southern stream storm system will make its way across the Ohio valley to the Mid Atlantic states. While there is a fair amount of uncertainty to the track of this system with the GFS actually tracking it to our northwest and most other packages pushing it by to our south...there is fairly high confidence that it will be too 'warm' aloft to support anything other than liquid pcpn. The bulk of the pcpn will fall during the second half of Sunday into Sunday evening.

Notably colder air will work its way back across our region in the wake of the system late Sunday night. If the GFS scenario works out...it could become quite breezy with gusts approaching 40 mph.
Will half step this with the more southern solution (which is favored) for now
Otherwise
the pcpn will gradually taper off overnight with some snow mixing in. A couple inches of accumulation cannot be ruled our east of Lake Erie and especially over the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A phasing of the two jets during this time frame will result in general troughiness over the Great Lakes region...while a burgeoning ridge will become established over the western conus. This should allow our temperatures to settle to near...or just a bit below normal.

In regards to pcpn...a cyclonic flow of chilly air (H85 ~ -7c)
Monday and Monday night will support scattered mixed rain and snow showers over the bulk of the forecast area with likely pops found east/southeast of both lakes. Problematic snow accumulations are not anticipated.

A shortwave ridge and a narrow wedge of sfc high pressure will cross the region on Tuesday. Mid level dry air and a low subsidence inversion associated with this synoptic set up will limit any nuisance shower activity...even southeast of both lakes.

A weak cold front is forecast to cross the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night or Wednesday with additional snow shower activity...although moisture should be limited.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Lingering low VFR CIGS at KART will completely erode by 17z.
Otherwise, widespread VFR with only passing cirrus level clouds through this afternoon and evening. SSW/SW winds gusting 20-30 knots from late this morning on at all terminals.

VFR to start this evening. A cold front will then approach from the northwest tonight, with low VFR/MVFR CIGS moving back in from NW to SE second half of tonight. Strong LLJ off the deck this evening, but winds should continue to mix enough to mitigate true LLWS conditions through the first half of tonight, before the stronger winds aloft exit east later tonight as surface winds come down as well.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR/MVFR with rain showers.
Saturday...Restrictions likely in widespread rain and possible fog.
Sunday and Monday...Restrictions possible in scattered to numerous rain showers, possibly mixed with snow for higher terrain.

MARINE
Strong southwest flow will continue to keep winds and waves above headline criteria through early Friday morning, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for all but the lower Niagara River and Saint Lawrence River at this time. Southwest winds will ramp back up today for the upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor for which a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for this morning through the first half of tonight.

Winds and waves subside Friday into the weekend with conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ020-040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ042>045.

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