Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Phelps, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cold weather will continue through tonight, with scattered snow showers lasting through this afternoon.

2) Dry and warming temperatures expected Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold weather will continue through tonight, with scattered snow showers lasting through this afternoon.

GOES water vapor imagery shows a deep upper level trough across the Great Lakes region this morning. A pool of anomalously cold air for mid-April will drift across the area today. Temperatures at 850mb are expected to reach -11C this morning before increasing tonight. Following a chilly start, high temperatures will only reach the mid 30s to low 40s today, which is 15 to 20 degrees below normal. As surface high pressure and drier air move into the region, mostly clear skies and light winds will allow overnight temperatures to fall into the 20s, with some teens possible across the Saint Lawrence/Black River Valley.

A cold front is moving through southern New York State early this morning. A narrow band of moderate snow will continue to move southeast across the western Southern Tier, while a northerly flow maintains the chance of lake enhanced and upslope snow showers south of Lake Ontario and over the higher terrain. A coating of snow on grassy/elevated surfaces is possible in these snow showers this morning. Today, steepening low- level lapse rates and diminishing low- level moisture will support isolated to scattered snow showers across the region. However, with drier air moving in, coverage is expected to be less than Sunday. No accumulation is expected during the daytime hours. Dry conditions are expected across the region tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather along with warming temperatures expected after Wednesday.

High pressure will bring mainly dry weather Tuesday with temperatures beginning to modify. Given H850 T's will still be - 8C to -2C expect highs in the 40s across the North Country with a range 50s near 60F elsewhere. A shortwave will then quickly dive southeast Tuesday eve/night through the northwest flow bringing with it a chance of a few light showers.

After that...it looks dry Wednesday with temperatures continuing to modify. Unsettled weather potentially returns Friday eve and then may last into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front is moving across western NY early this morning. An area of snow showers extends for the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes region and will continue to move southeastward. Most of this activity is south of BUF/IAG/ROC, however snow showers will continue at KJHW through 9z.

Additional snow showers are expected to develop south-southeast of Lake Ontario and across the higher elevations later this morning.
Surface high pressure and drier air will build into the region this afternoon and showers will come to an end. Flight conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR in snow showers through the morning.

Widespread VFR conditions are expected tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance of rain showers mainly late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of afternoon showers.

MARINE
Elevated northwest winds and waves will diminish on the Lakes through this morning. Winds will back and increase this afternoon resulting in another brief round of 15-20 knot winds across eastern portions of Lake Ontario. Lighter winds will then follow tonight as the axis of surface high pressure crosses the Lower Great Lakes.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for central and eastern Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ043>045.