Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Victor, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1.) Dry weather expected today before another round of showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight into Wednesday.

2.) Primarily dry weather returns Wednesday night through Friday night.

3.) Periodic showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend through Monday.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1...Dry weather expected today before another round of showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight into Wednesday.

A high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the central Great Lakes this morning and then crests over our region this afternoon and early evening. Stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge is expected to promote dry weather.
Considerable clearing and weak or calm surface winds accompanying the ridge should contribute to lows reaching the 50's to lower 60's around daybreak. Steam fog will continue to form in the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region early this morning.
Patchy radiation fog should also form during the same time period, especially inland from Lakes Erie and Ontario, amidst lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall. Fog will dissipate via the onset of diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer shortly after daybreak. Highs are forecast to reach the 70's to lower 80's late this afternoon.

The ridge at the surface and aloft exits E'ward tonight and allows a warm front to sweep N'ward through Western and Central NY. Simultaneously, cyclonic W'erly flow aloft becomes established over our area and embedded shortwave disturbances traverse Western and Central NY. The cyclonic W'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances will continue to affect our area on Wednesday, when a cold front should sweep SE'ward through Western and Central NY. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected after midnight tonight through Wednesday as weak to perhaps moderate CAPE, included elevated CAPE, is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent along the upper- reaches of the warm front and ahead of shortwave trough axes; low- level convergence and moist ascent along the surface warm front, surface cold front, and surface trough axes attendant to the shortwave troughs. Lows should reach mainly the 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Wednesday morning and be followed by daytime highs in the 70's to 80F.

Key Message 2...Primarily dry weather returns Wednesday night through Friday night.

A ridge should build from the north-central United States and vicinity Wednesday night through Thursday, crest E'ward across our area Thursday night into Friday morning, and then exit E'ward later Friday through Friday night. Primarily fair weather is expected in Western and Central NY as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. However, a few rain showers associated with moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the departing cold front may impact the Western Southern Tier and southern Finger Lakes Wednesday evening. Overnight lows should reach the upper 40's to near 60F around daybreak Thursday as the cooler air mass overspreads our region behind the cold front and the building ridge is accompanied by easing surface winds and considerable clearing. Steam fog is expected in our river and lake valleys during the late evening hours of Wednesday and especially during the predawn hours through shortly after daybreak on Thursday. At least patchy radiation fog should also form during the same time period, especially inland from Lakes Erie and Ontario, amidst lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall. Highs should reach the 70's late Thursday afternoon. Mainly clear sky, light or calm surface winds, and lower humidity should promote efficient nocturnal cooling Thursday night and allow lows to reach the mid 40's to upper 50's around daybreak Friday. Additional river and lake valley steam fog is expected, especially during the predawn hours through shortly after daybreak on Friday morning. Mainly clear sky and the development of low-level WAA along the backside of the departing ridge should be accompanied by highs in the mid 70's to lower 80's late Friday afternoon and lows in the 50's to lower 60's around daybreak Saturday.

Key Message 3...Periodic showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend through Monday.

Cyclonic flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect Western and Central NY this weekend through Monday. Initially SW'erly cyclonic flow aloft should veer to NW'erly on Sunday and remain NW'erly on Monday as the axis of a deep mid/upper-level trough moves from near the western Great Lakes to near the NY/New England border between daybreak Saturday and sunset Monday evening. At the surface, our CWA should reside in net troughing through the period. A warm front should drift N'ward through Western and Central NY on Saturday through Saturday night and be followed by the E'ward passage of a cold front on Sunday.

Periodic and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected as at least weak CAPE, including elevated CAPE, is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and ahead of shortwave trough axes; low-level convergence/moist ascent along the surface fronts and surface trough axes attendant to the shortwave troughs. Near to slightly above-average highs on Saturday and lows Saturday night should be followed by primarily below-average air temperatures Sunday and especially Monday. Behind the cold front, the air mass may be cold and moist enough to support the development of at least isolated lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms over and generally east or southeast of the ~23C to ~24C eastern Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
At the surface, a high pressure ridge builds from the central Great Lakes today and then begins to exit E'ward this evening through 12Z/Wed. A cold front continues to approach from the northwest and should reach far-western Lake Ontario and eastern Lake Erie, north and west of KERI, by 12Z/Wed. Our regional surface winds should trend SW'erly to W'erly around 5 to 10 knots through the TAF period.

Primarily fair weather and VFR are expected through 12Z/Wed.
However, there are two exceptions:

1.) Areas of fog with MVFR to LIFR, especially along and near the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region, will dissipate by 13Z/Tues.

2.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front may impact Western and Central NY between ~08Z/Wed and 12Z/Wed. Brief MVFR to LIFR and brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 knots are possible with these showers and especially storms.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to LIFR are expected.

Wednesday Night through Friday Night...Dry weather and mainly VFR likely, although localized fog with MVFR to LIFR VSBY in/near river/lake valleys is possible around daybreak on Thursday and Friday.

Saturday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to LIFR are possible.

MARINE
Wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected during the rest of this week. A high pressure ridge builds from the central Great Lakes this morning and will be accompanied by primarily N'erly winds. During this afternoon through evening, the ridge axis moves E'ward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and causes winds to back to SW'erly. On Wednesday, a cold front will sweep SE'ward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and cause SW'erly winds to veer to NW'erly to N'erly. Behind the cold front, a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through Friday and causes winds to become variable in direction. The ridge should exit E'ward from the lakes Friday night through Saturday and allow a warm front to drift N'ward through the area. The warm front passage should cause mainly E'erly to SE'erly winds to veer to S'erly to SW'erly.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.