Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Victor, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
While most areas will only experience partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight...lake snows will be found east of both lakes. This will especially be the case east/southeast of Lake Ontario where additional significant accumulations can be expected.

Off Lake Erie...

Lake Erie ice has significantly expanded over the past 5 days, but the area of deep water from Long Point to Sturgeon Point is still largely open. Furthermore, sensible heat flux from the lake to the atmosphere still occurs through slush ice and new, thin ice.

The best period of lake enhancement has occurred and the area of lake enhancement will move south across the Boston Hills and into the western Southern Tier, before weakening overnight. Occasional light lake effect snow showers will persist across the higher terrain east of the lake overnight through Friday, with light additional accumulations.

Additional accumulations well south and east of Buffalo will run 2 to 4 inches in most persistent snows.

Late Friday afternoon through Friday night, if anything remains of the lake effect snow it will move northward towards Buffalo. Expect this to be very weak, with just a few scattered light snow showers and minimal accumulation.

Off Lake Ontario...

A well defined plume of moderate to heavy snow centered on the Tug Hill plateau will push south across Oswego county during the remaining overnight hours. This plume contains snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour...but SLR of 25:1 should limit the impact of the quickly accumulating fluffy snow.

Friday, the strong band over central or southern Oswego County early in the morning will quickly weaken and move farther southwest, with much weaker lake effect snow showers drifting southwest across Cayuga and Wayne counties. This may produce a few inches locally from the east side of Rochester across Wayne and Cayuga counties.
Farther west, a few snow showers will produce minor accumulations along the lakeshore from the west side of Rochester into portions of Orleans and eastern Niagara counties.

Friday evening, boundary layer flow will begin to back, allowing a band of snow to consolidate and strengthen again near the southeast corner of the lake. This will likely take the form of an anticyclonically curved band within rapidly backing boundary layer flow near a low level ridge. These bands typically only produce heavy snow very close to the lakeshore. This may bring another round of accumulating snow to Oswego County Friday night, before moving north out over Mexico Bay and weakening by daybreak Saturday.

Outside of expiring the advisory for northern Erie County, have kept all the existing advisory and warning headlines in place. It's possible that a Winter Weather Advisory will be needed for Northern Cayuga and Wayne counties depending on the intensity of the band.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Zonal flow becomes established across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. A fast moving shortwave will pass by to our north within this zonal flow Saturday through Saturday night.
Temperatures will moderate a bit Saturday just ahead of the cold front with highs found in the mid to upper 20s. We will also see chances (30% to 50%) for some snow showers as the front nears.
This will occur with the arrival of a supportive 40 to 45 knot LLJ
Additionally
sfc winds will slowly increase Saturday in the afternoon with gust up to 30 mph.

A secondary front is advertised to cross the Lower Lakes Saturday night
Again
we will see some scattered snow showers with it. CAA behind this front will then generate some measure of a lake response as H850 T's fall briefly to -13C/-15C. Favorable westerly (270) flow across Lake Ontario will then support the 'best' shot at seeing accumulating snows east of lake Ontario (Tug Hill) on Sunday. There, we 'potentially' could see accumulations of +7 inches. Off Lake Erie...a shorter fetch and rapidly warming mid-levels by Sunday afternoon will 'likely' limit accumulations. It's also worth noting that Lake Erie has accumulated a significant amount of 'ice' (around 75% covered).

Any lake snows will begin to lift north Sunday evening/night and then fall apart all together. This will occur as mid-levels further warm and drier air works into the region
Otherwise
brief quite period ahead of the next shortwave approaching the region. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid teens.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Large scale troughing will remain in place for most of the long term period with several shortwave troughs also tracking across the region within the larger trough. With this pattern, the potential for both synoptic snow from passing clipper systems and lake effect snow between passing clippers, is expected for much of next week. There is still too much uncertainty for timing among the different guidance packages, but most of the forecast models have this pattern setup for at least the first half of next week.

Temperatures for the period will remain mostly below normal, with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s for Monday. Day-to-day cooling will bring temperatures down to the teens to upper 20s by Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions will be found across the region overnight...
but lake snows east of the lakes will produce times of LIFR to MVFR conditions at sites like KJHW. Additional lake snow showers will produce brief IFR to MVFR vsbys at KROC.

On Friday...cigs will range from 2500-3500 ft across the region.
Lake snows southeast of the lakes will persist with localized vsbys of 1-3SM. This snow will move back to the north late in the day and Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR/MVFR during the day, then another round of lake enhanced snow east/northeast of the lakes Saturday night with local IFR/LIFR.
Sunday...Lake effect snow mainly east of Lake Ontario with local IFR/LIFR. MVFR/VFR elsewhere.
Monday...Local IFR in lake enhanced snow east of Lake Ontario, VFR/MVFR elsewhere. Windy.
Tuesday...IFR with snow likely. Windy.

MARINE
Moderate southwesterlies will continue on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario for much of tonight...and this will maintain the widespread small craft advisories. Winds will become northwest overnight and gradually diminish towards daybreak.

Another period of elevated winds will develop Saturday from the southwest ahead of another cold front, becoming westerly later Saturday night and Sunday. West winds may increase to near 30 knots on Lake Ontario Sunday, producing high end Small Craft Advisory conditions. Even stronger southwest winds are possible Monday, with a period of Gales possible.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ006.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ007.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ008.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ043>045.