Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Victor, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cool weather and periods of showers will continue through Thursday night.

2) A notable warming trend will start Friday, then gain momentum over the weekend with summer-like heat by early next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool weather and periods of showers will continue through Thursday night.

Deepening mid and upper level trough will continue to dig from the central Great Lakes into the lower Great Lakes region tonight. In the process, the mid level circulation will close off as the system becomes vertically stacked. This will act to slow the systems' progression as it drifts slowly southeastward, eventually right over NYS later tonight. The associated surface low will drift slowly southward across NYS later tonight.

Expect a west to east drying trend in the wake of the cold front this evening for much of the area. However, the cold front is expected to stall out just east of the area tonight, keeping the potential for a few shower going east of Lake Ontario through much of the overnight. Meanwhile, as the mid level and associated surface low slowly pivot southeast across NYS, cool moist W to NW flow on the back side of the system will combine with some limited lake enhancement to bring chances for showers back in across far western NY late tonight, especially across favored upslope areas.

A mid level closed low will gradually move southeast across NY/PA on Thursday. The associated surface low just north of Lake Ontario in the morning will dissipate, giving way to secondary coastal cyclogenesis near the New York Bight by Thursday afternoon. The conveyor of deep moisture with this system will be well east of the area over eastern NY and New England Thursday, leaving more shallow wrap around moisture over the eastern Great Lakes. Cool air aloft, steepening lapse rates, and increasing northwest upslope flow will support a few showers at times, with the best coverage likely found across the western Southern Tier and Lewis County.

A few showers will continue tomorrow night into early Friday morning, with the best coverage east of Lake Ontario in closer proximity to Atlantic moisture advecting westward around the northern periphery of the vertically stacked low off the southern New England coast. Additional rainfall amounts will be light. Rain chances then mostly end by daybreak Friday as drier high pressure ridges in from the southwest.

Well below normal temperatures are expected tomorrow, with highs only in the low to mid 50s for lower elevations and upper 40s for higher terrain, close to 15 degrees below average. Lows Thursday night will drop back into the low to mid 40s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A notable warming trend will start Friday, then gain momentum over the weekend with summer-like heat by early next week.

The very cool temperatures Thursday will give way to the start of a warming trend by Friday as the mid level low moves away, with some sunshine and weak warm advection beginning. Highs will recover into the 60s and close to average by Friday afternoon.

A notable pattern change will begin across the CONUS this weekend and mature early next week as a trough digs into the Rockies, forcing a downstream ridge to build eastward across the central and eastern CONUS. Persistent warm advection will bring an extended period of above average warmth starting Saturday and lasting through at least Tuesday. Highs over the weekend will be in the 70s, with 80s for Monday and Tuesday away from lake influences. Some of the normally warmer locations may reach the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday.

In addition to the building warmth, it will be relatively dry through the period with just a low chance of a few spotty showers from Saturday through Monday from passing weak shortwaves. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms may arrive by late Tuesday or Tuesday night as a cold front moves through the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Cool weather will move into the region behind a cold front through Thursday. Widespread MVFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR or below tonight. LIFR conditions are expected across the higher terrain.
Showers will move back into western NY late tonight, with periods of showers possible through Thursday.

Flight conditions will remain IFR or below for most areas Thursday.
Improvement will be across the Finger Lakes region, possibly reaching KROC by afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Areas of IFR/MVFR with showers likely at times.

Friday...A chance of showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario. Areas of MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

MARINE
Winds associated with a passing cold front are expected to continue to bring low end Small Craft Advisory level winds to the area through the evening.

Winds are expected to weaken to below SCA levels later this evening and into the overnight as the passing sfc low and associated pressure gradient weakens. Winds are expected to remain below advisory levels through the weekend.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043-044.