Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Victor, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Center of surface low pressure will remain nearly stationary just west of Lake Ontario through the remainder of the day. Spokes of energy will continue to rotate around this feature, supporting waves of mainly light rain to spread across the region. Two main bands of rain late this morning are focused across far western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region, and will only slowly translate eastward and northward respectively through the afternoon.

This low will gradually shift east into western New York tonight before giving way to a coastal low heading northeastward along the Atlantic coastline. All of this said, expect periods of rain to continue through tonight. Rainfall amounts today and tonight will average between a quarter of an inch to a half of an inch. With regards to temperatures, don't expect much of a diurnal curve due to the blanket of cloud cover and rain.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The broad/deep mid level low will continue to make a very slow eastward progression from the Great Lakes Friday to New England Saturday, before reaching the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday morning.
Chilly, moist cyclonic flow will persist across the eastern Great Lakes through the period, supporting a continuation of a very unsettled pattern.

Rain will still be quite widespread Friday with organized forcing in the DPVA regime just ahead of the mid level circulation, and low level convergence along a well defined WNW to ESE oriented trough and axis of deformation. Overall, forcing will be a little weaker than the past few days, so expect a downward trend in rainfall amounts.

Rainfall should become more showery later Friday night through Saturday night as the best forcing and moisture move east of the area and into New England. Nonetheless, deep wrap around moisture and cool air aloft will support the likelihood of showers at times.

Temperatures will remain well below average through the period.
Highs Friday will struggle to reach the lower 50s even at lower elevations, with temperatures staying in the 40s across higher terrain. Saturday will be a few degrees warmer with less rain coverage, but still a solid 15F below average.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The very slow moving closed low will remain over the Canadian Maritimes Sunday. While the deeper moisture and forcing will have moved well east of our area, cyclonic northwest flow and another passing shortwave on the western flank of the system will still support some cloud cover and the chance of a few showers, especially in the afternoon inland from the lakes as lapse rates steepen with diurnal heating beneath the cold pool aloft.

High pressure will begin to build into the Great Lakes on Memorial Day Monday, which will be the best day of the holiday weekend with mainly dry weather outside of a spotty afternoon shower inland from the lakes. Temperatures will begin to rebound, with highs back into the 60s.

The dry weather will not last long, as another mid level closed low will take shape over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes by the middle of next week. Model guidance begins to diverge on the timing of this system, with the slower ECMWF still offering some chance of dry weather Tuesday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to suggest a likelihood of rain by Tuesday night or Wednesday as the mid level low makes a close pass over the eastern Great Lakes.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR/IFR conditions now predominant across western and north-central NY and will persist through the remainder of the day, with some LIFR across the interior higher terrain of the Southern Tier. Brief periods of VFR will also be possible across the lower terrain sites if low decks scatter out from time to time with changing wx conditions. Center of surface low pressure will remain nearly stationary just west of Lake Ontario through the remainder of the day. Spokes of energy will continue to rotate around this feature, supporting waves of mainly light rain to spread across the region.
Two main bands of rain late this morning are focused across far western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region, and will only slowly translate eastward and northward respectively through the afternoon.

Degraded flight conditions will continue through tonight as the surface low ever so slowly edges east across western NY, along with periodic rounds of light rain. If anything, flight conditions will likely worsen overnight with more in the way of lower terrain IFR and higher terrain LIFR.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday.. MVFR to IFR with showers.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

MARINE
A nearly stationary surface low spinning just west of Lake Ontario today will slowly shift east and weaken as it crosses western NY tonight before ultimately becoming absorbed by a strengthening coastal low riding up the Atlantic coast tonight and Friday. This will promote fresh to moderate westerlies across Lake Erie tonight through Friday evening supporting a period of Small Craft Advisories on the eastern shores.

Elevated persistent westerlies will linger through the holiday weekend bringing choppy conditions at times, however winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Monday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Friday night for LEZ040-041.