Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saratoga Springs, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Continued high confidence in dry conditions persisting until the end of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong surface high around 1035 hPa will slowly shift south and east of NY and New England tonight through tomorrow.
The surface anticyclone will yield ideal radiational cooling conditions with mostly clear/clear skies and light to calm winds for chilly lows to fall into the 20s to lower 30s. Our forecast was a blend of the NBM/MAV guidance. The surface high moves over the Mid Atlantic States on Sunday. The strong subsidence from the high will allow for mostly sunny skies and temps to moderate to near to slightly above normal readings to close the weekend.
PWATS will still run 1 to 2 STDEVs below normal based on the latest NAEFS guidance. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s in the valleys and 50s to around 60F over the higher terrain. Temps will be slightly milder in the 30s with a few upper 20s on Sunday night with the mid and upper level flow trending zonal with the mid level ridge axis more surpressed over the MS Valley. Some patchy valley fog may form with dewpoints rising some and light winds. The approaching cold front will be moisture starved to open the week bringing some clouds with a few light showers for the western Adirondacks. Max temps rise above normal into the mid/upper 50s to mid and spotty upper 60s across the region before the frontal passage.

Post frontal cold advection follows Mon night into Tue with a strong Canadian anticylone building in once again with more dry weather for Tue through the mid week with temps near to slightly below normal. A warm front with some clouds and limited moisture drifts through Thu with milder weather to close the week. Another cold front with limited low-level moisture approaches on Friday. A few light showers or sprinkles may impact locations north and west of the Capital Region, but most locations will be going on close to two weeks without measurable rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 00Z/Monday, mainly VFR conditions are expected. However, there is a slight chance (10-20%) that ground fog could develop along the nearby Mohawk River and drift to KALB between 09Z-13Z/Sun. A period of IFR/LIFR conditions would be possible should this occur. Calm/light and variable winds through Sunday morning will trend into the southwest to west at less than 6 KT by afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Monday through Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.