Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saratoga Springs, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Our coastal low continues to exit north/east into the Gulf of Maine early this morning, taking the organized bands rain with it. However, plenty of low-level moisture will remain trapped underneath the low-level inversion seen on the 00 UTC ALY sounding today as broad troughing persist aloft. We therefore will unfortunately not see improvements to our sensible weather today as cloudy skies, unseasonably cool temperatures and patchy drizzle/very light showers persist through this morning. As our coastal low matures, the parent trough shifting east of the Great Lakes will absorb this secondary shortwave. This will result in an inverted trough axis developing to our west and as it pivots eastward through the our area this afternoon into tonight, expecting a more organized area of rain to progress from the Southern Tier and Catskills eastward into the mid- Hudson Valley, Capital District into western New England before lifting northward. We increased QPF amounts compared to the previous forecast to 0.10 to 0.20" mainly along and north of I-90 as latest guidance indicates a tightening baroclinic zone develops, supporting a more organized area of rain. Steady rain this evening gradually weakens as the trough axis shifts further east but light showers continue overnight, especially along the favored western facing slopes of the southern Greens, Taconics, and northern Catskills, as westerly flow along the southern periphery of the broad troughing aloft continues.

Otherwise, temperatures today will once again fall well below normal by roughly 20 degrees and struggle to rise out of the low to mid 50s. Given widespread clouds and showers tonight, not expecting much a diurnal temperature change with overnight lows in the 40s (upper 30s in the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens).

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Broad troughing persists aloft on Saturday and with the cool pool overhead, expecting diurnally and cold air advection driven isolated to scattered showers. The highest potential for showers will be in the western facing slopes of the western Adirondacks, southern Greens, Taconics, and northern Catskills as northwest flow off Lake Ontario also advects lake moisture south/eastward. Areas south/east of the Capital District have the highest potential to remain mainly dry and just out of the reach of daytime showers as showers weaken as they leave the terrain. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies once again with somewhat breezy west to northwest winds as high pressure building into the Great Lakes tightens the sfc pressure gradient aloft. The breezy winds should enhance boundary layer mixing a bit so that temperatures end up a few degrees warmer compared to the previous few days, especially in the mid- Hudson Valley which should remain dry. Even still, temperatures should end up 10 - 15 degrees below normal.

We finally trend milder by Sunday as north-northwest winds advect a milder air mass that spills overtop an omega block setting up over the Rockies. Even though the cold pool and core of the trough that has plagues us the past few days drifts into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday, broad troughing persists over the Northeast and, if you can believe it, yet another shortwave from Ontario rotates along its southern periphery. This maintains slight chance and chance POPs (15 - 40% chance) for showers, especially during the afternoon when the stronger forcing for ascent from the incoming shortwave/tough axis pushes into our region. Otherwise, skies should breaks for some limited sun ahead of the shortwave and with warmer temperatures aloft and somewhat breezy northwest winds continuing, boundary layer mixing should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s (50s higher terrain). While this is still cooler than normal for late May, it is an improvement compared to the recent stretch of chilly weather.

Note that despite the chance for showers in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday this holiday weekend, we are not expecting a washout and there will be dry periods, especially in valley areas. Most incoming showers should be isolated to scattered in nature and last for a relatively short period. The exception is the higher terrain areas of the western/southern Adirondacks, Taconics, northern Catskills and southern Green, especially western facing slopes, where rain showers should be more persistent and where we have a more pessimistic forecast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The Memorial Day forecast is becoming more optimistic as guidance continues to trend drier. Though some showers may be unavoidable especially early Monday afternoon, given the energy pulsing about the western flank of the persistent upper low off the coast of Nova Scotia, NBM probabilities for 12-hour precipitation of at least 0.01" peak only at 15-40%. The greatest probabilities lie in Southwest Adirondacks and Southern Greens where upslope enhancement could overcome counteracting subsidence from an incoming surface high. That said, without much in the way of forcing and warming temperatures aloft, any showers will be very light and highly scattered in nature. And, decreasing cloud coverage across much of the region throughout the day with high temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s will certainly make for more pleasant conditions to those of late.

Shower activity ceases late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening as high pressure builds in from the west. Regionwide dry conditions will then persist through at least Tuesday with temperatures moderating into the mid/upper 60s to mid 70s. The remainder of the extended forecast retains a fair amount of uncertainty in terms of our next chances for rain. There are clear signals in the guidance that indicate the development of another closed low pressure system in the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains by Tuesday morning, but the depictions of the evolution of this system are varied such that some sources keep us dry into Wednesday and others produce rain by Wednesday morning. Additionally, there are hints at a weak disturbance producing light showers ahead of this main system, but this solution, too, is variable amongst the guidance. Therefore, capped PoPs at slight chance to chance beginning Wednesday through Thursday. Regardless of the outcome, this does not look to be impactful rain. At this point it is more a question of spatial spread. Highs Wednesday will primarily be in the 60s with Thursday's values similar to those of Tuesday. Lows throughout the period will largely be in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06z Saturday.. MVFR to VFR conditions prevail across the terminals this morning with low stratus prominent courtesy of multiple adjacent low pressure systems supplying moisture into the region. This past evening's showers have significantly decreased in spatial coverage and will continue to do so over the next couple of hours before filling back in again later this morning and this afternoon. With the atmosphere beginning to moisten, any VFR ceilings are anticipated to gradually lower to MVFR heights by this afternoon/evening especially at KPOU and KPSF and with rainfall at KALB and KGFL. Winds throughout the period will generally be light and variable at KALB and KGFL with sustained speeds remaining under 10 kt. KPOU and KPSF look to have a bit more directionally focused wind out of the west to west-southwest also at sustained speeds below 10 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.