Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saratoga Springs, NY
September 23, 2023 9:47 AM EDT (13:47 UTC)
Sunrise 6:42AM Sunset 6:52PM Moonrise 3:46PM Moonset 12:00AM
Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 231059 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 659 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
SYNOPSIS
Clouds gradually thicken and lower from south to north today as Tropical Storm Ophelia impacts the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Lots of dry air in the Northeast ahead of the system will keep most of the region dry this morning before showers push northward this afternoon with winds turning a bit breezy. Areas north of Interstate 90 will likely remain dry. Showers turn light and intermittent tonight before showers increase in coverage and turn steady on Sunday with the highest rain amounts again south of Interstate 90.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:50am, forecast is track with rain showers pushing into Southeast NY with NYS mesonet stations showing a few hundredths of rain reaching the ground. Given the latest trends, the initial band of showers should reach Litchfield, Dutchess and Ulster County by 12 - 14 UTC with showers gradually pushing northward this morning. Areas from the Capital District northward should stay dry this morning before showers arrive this afternoon, mainly after 18 UTC but the southern Adirodnacks should dry through sunset.
Previous discussion...Latest GOES16 satellite imagery shows Tropical Storm Ophelia making landfall in North Carolina with the latest NHC guidance showing it at tropical storm strengthen.
To the north, a 1030hPa high remains positioned in the Gulf of Maine. While skies will start off with sun filter through high clouds, clouds will gradually lower and thicken through the morning as moisture from Ophelia continues to stream northward.
While Ophelia will remain well to our south today, a coastal front from the NJ/NYC area will push north and east through the day with a 30-35kt low-level jet resulting in a strong push of warm air and moisture advection along the boundary. Forecast soundings show plenty of dry air in the mid-levels with northeast sfc winds also supporting dry air advection through much of eastern NY and western New England. This should keep much of the region dry early to mid morning which the latest CAMs including the HRRR support.
However, as this low-level jet approaches and enhances moisture transport with the coastal front pushing further inland, the column should moisten. Rain should finally start reaching the ground by midday into the early afternoon in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT which will be closer to the better low-level forcing and moisture. Areas further north will likely remain dry as northeasterly winds maintain dry air in the column. Just how quickly the incoming rain showers push from south to north and how far north they progress remains a bit more uncertain than we would like at this lead; however, guidance generally indicates that an inverted trough over the Atlantic shifts more into southern New England than into our area as it rotates around the Bermuda high. This should help keep the most widespread and steadiest rain to our east but warm air advection driven rain showers should expand northward this afternoon. However, showers likely remain mainly south of I-90 as showers run into the aforementioned dry air and erode away.
Total rain amounts range 0.25 - 0.50 south of I-90 with a sharp northern cut-off towards I-90 dropping to just a few hundredths.
WPC maintains a marginal risk in its ERO for far southern zones.
With showers in southern zones and northern zones staying dry, temperatures today should be flipped. Southern areas including the mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, Berkshires and NW CT may only rise into the upper 50s to near 60 while the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley will be warmer topping out in the mid to upper 60s. Northeasterly winds will turn a bit breezy today as the pressure gradient between Ophelia and the Canadian Maritimes high strengthens with sustained winds reaching 5-12kts (strongest in the mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, and NW CT).
We should enter in a break tonight as the inverted trough and low-level jet exit to our east and Ophelia (now weakening to a tropical depression) is still well to our south near the Delmarva. However, continued weak warm air advection over the Northeast in between the systems should support intermittent light rain showers/sprinkles overnight with showers even extending near or just north of I-90. Cloudy skies will also keep temperature elevated tonight in the mid-50s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Ophelia continues to lose tropical characteristics by Sunday based on the latest guidance from the NHC as it tracks into MD and southern NJ. While the upper level wave opens up, guidance suggests the mid-level closed circulations remains in place.
Although the center should pass well to our south, the northern periphery of the circulation looks to graze areas south of I-90 as it turns extra tropical. Strong warm air and moisture advection behind a developing baroclinc zone should act to enhance the precipitation shield with steady rain overspreading the forecast area, mainly from the Capital District southward, during the day Sunday. Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening should be the wettest part of the day as the moisture axis (PWATS >1.50") from Ophelia is directed into the forecast area.
Otherwise, temperatures Sunday will remain cooler than normal with highs only in the 60s thanks to clouds and greater coverage of rain showers. Breezy northeasterly winds will also help make it feel cool sustained 7-15kts with gusts to 20kts.
Widespread rain amounts ranging 0.25 - 0.50 inches expected again south of I-90 with rain amounts dropping off heading north of I-90 to just a few hundredths. Depending on the exact track, if mid-level FGEN along the baroclinic zone strengthens and if there is sufficient instability to support convective elements, locally higher amounts south of I-90 are possible. However, latest HRRR probabilistic guidance does not support heavy rainfall rates and two day rainfall amounts ranging 1 to 1.75 inches south of I-90 should not result in much flooding. Therefore, we collaborated with WPC to remove the slight risk in the ERO.
Rain diminishes Sunday night into Monday morning from north to south as the remnants of Ophelia exit into New England and high pressure from northern Quebec builds southward. We have a more optimistic forecast for Monday as dry air returns and POPS trends downward, especially for the afternoon. In fact, clouds should break for afternoon sun with temperatures warming into the low 70s from Albany northward with mid to upper 60s in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT where clouds linger longer.
Skies trend mostly clear Monday night low temperatures turning cooler compared to the previous few nights dropping into the 40s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly quiet weather is expected through the long term period.
Strong upper level ridge and surface high pressure will be located just north of the region over Quebec and will remain in place through the long term period.
For the start of the period, there will be an omega block in place over the eastern CONUS with a closed low over the Midwest, the ridging over Quebec and another closed low over the western Atlantic. Eventually, this evolve into more a rex block, as the upper level low opens up and slides underneath the ridging. With the high pressure north of the area, a dry northerly flow will be in place through much of the week. This should allow for no precipitation through the week, with a partly to mostly sunny sky each day.
Temps aloft should be gradually rising through the week. Valley areas will be seeing highs in the 60s for early in the period (Tue/Wed), but should be reaching back into the low to mid 70s for late in the week (Thurs/Fri). Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s to low 50s each night and no frost is expected through the long term period.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High clouds are spreading into the region well ahead of TC Ophelia, which has just made landfall in eastern North Carolina. All areas are seeing bkn-ovc cirrus clouds. Some patches of lower clouds did develop overnight at KPSF, but this should be dissipating shortly.
In addition, the clouds were thin enough for radiational fog at KGFL as well, but this should also be dissipating soon with sunrise now underway. All sites should be seeing VFR conditions for the morning hours with the high clouds remaining in place.
Meanwhile, some moisture surging northward, aided by a coastal front and warm advection aloft, will allow for some showers to spread from south to north during the day today. This precip will take a long time moving northward and will be running into some dry air. While some showers may begin at KPOU as early as 15z, it may take until the afternoon to reach KPSF and the early evening for KALB. At this point, showers don't appear to make it all the way to KGFL. Within showers, visibility (and possibly ceilings too) look to lower to MVFR. The exact coverage and extent of showers is still somewhat uncertain, but will include a TEMPO or PROB30 to account for these showers heading northward. KPOU will have the best chance of seeing more organized and persistent showers.
With the increasing moisture, some low stratus may spread towards KPOU and KPSF for tonight, allowing for MVFR conditions. Elsewhere, it should stay VFR, although ceilings will be gradually lowering.
Will continue to mention a few lingering stray showers around for all sites into the night, although coverage is still rather uncertain.
Winds will be light to calm through mid-morning today. North to northeast winds will increase to 5 to 10 kts for all sites through the day, with the strongest winds at KPOU. Winds will remain around 10 kts on tonight for KPOU/KPSF/KALB, although winds should be able to go back to being light or calm at KGFL.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 659 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
SYNOPSIS
Clouds gradually thicken and lower from south to north today as Tropical Storm Ophelia impacts the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Lots of dry air in the Northeast ahead of the system will keep most of the region dry this morning before showers push northward this afternoon with winds turning a bit breezy. Areas north of Interstate 90 will likely remain dry. Showers turn light and intermittent tonight before showers increase in coverage and turn steady on Sunday with the highest rain amounts again south of Interstate 90.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:50am, forecast is track with rain showers pushing into Southeast NY with NYS mesonet stations showing a few hundredths of rain reaching the ground. Given the latest trends, the initial band of showers should reach Litchfield, Dutchess and Ulster County by 12 - 14 UTC with showers gradually pushing northward this morning. Areas from the Capital District northward should stay dry this morning before showers arrive this afternoon, mainly after 18 UTC but the southern Adirodnacks should dry through sunset.
Previous discussion...Latest GOES16 satellite imagery shows Tropical Storm Ophelia making landfall in North Carolina with the latest NHC guidance showing it at tropical storm strengthen.
To the north, a 1030hPa high remains positioned in the Gulf of Maine. While skies will start off with sun filter through high clouds, clouds will gradually lower and thicken through the morning as moisture from Ophelia continues to stream northward.
While Ophelia will remain well to our south today, a coastal front from the NJ/NYC area will push north and east through the day with a 30-35kt low-level jet resulting in a strong push of warm air and moisture advection along the boundary. Forecast soundings show plenty of dry air in the mid-levels with northeast sfc winds also supporting dry air advection through much of eastern NY and western New England. This should keep much of the region dry early to mid morning which the latest CAMs including the HRRR support.
However, as this low-level jet approaches and enhances moisture transport with the coastal front pushing further inland, the column should moisten. Rain should finally start reaching the ground by midday into the early afternoon in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT which will be closer to the better low-level forcing and moisture. Areas further north will likely remain dry as northeasterly winds maintain dry air in the column. Just how quickly the incoming rain showers push from south to north and how far north they progress remains a bit more uncertain than we would like at this lead; however, guidance generally indicates that an inverted trough over the Atlantic shifts more into southern New England than into our area as it rotates around the Bermuda high. This should help keep the most widespread and steadiest rain to our east but warm air advection driven rain showers should expand northward this afternoon. However, showers likely remain mainly south of I-90 as showers run into the aforementioned dry air and erode away.
Total rain amounts range 0.25 - 0.50 south of I-90 with a sharp northern cut-off towards I-90 dropping to just a few hundredths.
WPC maintains a marginal risk in its ERO for far southern zones.
With showers in southern zones and northern zones staying dry, temperatures today should be flipped. Southern areas including the mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, Berkshires and NW CT may only rise into the upper 50s to near 60 while the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley will be warmer topping out in the mid to upper 60s. Northeasterly winds will turn a bit breezy today as the pressure gradient between Ophelia and the Canadian Maritimes high strengthens with sustained winds reaching 5-12kts (strongest in the mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, and NW CT).
We should enter in a break tonight as the inverted trough and low-level jet exit to our east and Ophelia (now weakening to a tropical depression) is still well to our south near the Delmarva. However, continued weak warm air advection over the Northeast in between the systems should support intermittent light rain showers/sprinkles overnight with showers even extending near or just north of I-90. Cloudy skies will also keep temperature elevated tonight in the mid-50s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Ophelia continues to lose tropical characteristics by Sunday based on the latest guidance from the NHC as it tracks into MD and southern NJ. While the upper level wave opens up, guidance suggests the mid-level closed circulations remains in place.
Although the center should pass well to our south, the northern periphery of the circulation looks to graze areas south of I-90 as it turns extra tropical. Strong warm air and moisture advection behind a developing baroclinc zone should act to enhance the precipitation shield with steady rain overspreading the forecast area, mainly from the Capital District southward, during the day Sunday. Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening should be the wettest part of the day as the moisture axis (PWATS >1.50") from Ophelia is directed into the forecast area.
Otherwise, temperatures Sunday will remain cooler than normal with highs only in the 60s thanks to clouds and greater coverage of rain showers. Breezy northeasterly winds will also help make it feel cool sustained 7-15kts with gusts to 20kts.
Widespread rain amounts ranging 0.25 - 0.50 inches expected again south of I-90 with rain amounts dropping off heading north of I-90 to just a few hundredths. Depending on the exact track, if mid-level FGEN along the baroclinic zone strengthens and if there is sufficient instability to support convective elements, locally higher amounts south of I-90 are possible. However, latest HRRR probabilistic guidance does not support heavy rainfall rates and two day rainfall amounts ranging 1 to 1.75 inches south of I-90 should not result in much flooding. Therefore, we collaborated with WPC to remove the slight risk in the ERO.
Rain diminishes Sunday night into Monday morning from north to south as the remnants of Ophelia exit into New England and high pressure from northern Quebec builds southward. We have a more optimistic forecast for Monday as dry air returns and POPS trends downward, especially for the afternoon. In fact, clouds should break for afternoon sun with temperatures warming into the low 70s from Albany northward with mid to upper 60s in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT where clouds linger longer.
Skies trend mostly clear Monday night low temperatures turning cooler compared to the previous few nights dropping into the 40s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly quiet weather is expected through the long term period.
Strong upper level ridge and surface high pressure will be located just north of the region over Quebec and will remain in place through the long term period.
For the start of the period, there will be an omega block in place over the eastern CONUS with a closed low over the Midwest, the ridging over Quebec and another closed low over the western Atlantic. Eventually, this evolve into more a rex block, as the upper level low opens up and slides underneath the ridging. With the high pressure north of the area, a dry northerly flow will be in place through much of the week. This should allow for no precipitation through the week, with a partly to mostly sunny sky each day.
Temps aloft should be gradually rising through the week. Valley areas will be seeing highs in the 60s for early in the period (Tue/Wed), but should be reaching back into the low to mid 70s for late in the week (Thurs/Fri). Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s to low 50s each night and no frost is expected through the long term period.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High clouds are spreading into the region well ahead of TC Ophelia, which has just made landfall in eastern North Carolina. All areas are seeing bkn-ovc cirrus clouds. Some patches of lower clouds did develop overnight at KPSF, but this should be dissipating shortly.
In addition, the clouds were thin enough for radiational fog at KGFL as well, but this should also be dissipating soon with sunrise now underway. All sites should be seeing VFR conditions for the morning hours with the high clouds remaining in place.
Meanwhile, some moisture surging northward, aided by a coastal front and warm advection aloft, will allow for some showers to spread from south to north during the day today. This precip will take a long time moving northward and will be running into some dry air. While some showers may begin at KPOU as early as 15z, it may take until the afternoon to reach KPSF and the early evening for KALB. At this point, showers don't appear to make it all the way to KGFL. Within showers, visibility (and possibly ceilings too) look to lower to MVFR. The exact coverage and extent of showers is still somewhat uncertain, but will include a TEMPO or PROB30 to account for these showers heading northward. KPOU will have the best chance of seeing more organized and persistent showers.
With the increasing moisture, some low stratus may spread towards KPOU and KPSF for tonight, allowing for MVFR conditions. Elsewhere, it should stay VFR, although ceilings will be gradually lowering.
Will continue to mention a few lingering stray showers around for all sites into the night, although coverage is still rather uncertain.
Winds will be light to calm through mid-morning today. North to northeast winds will increase to 5 to 10 kts for all sites through the day, with the strongest winds at KPOU. Winds will remain around 10 kts on tonight for KPOU/KPSF/KALB, although winds should be able to go back to being light or calm at KGFL.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSCH SCHENECTADY COUNTY,NY | 15 sm | 49 min | NNE 07 | 15 sm | Clear | 54°F | 52°F | 94% | 30.32 | |
| KALB ALBANY INTL,NY | 18 sm | 56 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 54°F | 48°F | 82% | 30.32 | |
| KGFL FLOYD BENNETT MEMORIAL,NY | 24 sm | 54 min | N 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 54°F | 94% | 30.32 |
Wind History from SCH
(wind in knots)Troy
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:48 AM EDT 3.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:44 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:50 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 06:54 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:48 AM EDT 3.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:44 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:50 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 06:54 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.9 |
| 1 am |
| 4.5 |
| 2 am |
| 3.5 |
| 3 am |
| 2.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 3.1 |
| 11 am |
| 3.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 2 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.4 |
Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:40 AM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:40 AM EDT 3.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:44 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:50 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:40 AM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:40 AM EDT 3.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:44 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:50 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.9 |
| 1 am |
| 4.3 |
| 2 am |
| 3.3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 2.3 |
| 10 am |
| 3.2 |
| 11 am |
| 3.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.5 |
Albany, NY,
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