Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saratoga Springs, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:54PM Thursday January 21, 2021 9:22 PM EST (02:22 UTC) Moonrise 12:42PMMoonset 1:46AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saratoga Springs, NY
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location: 43.01, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 212352 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 652 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Cloudy conditions continue with lake effect and upslope snow developing tonight mainly for the western Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. Snow showers and snow squalls arrive Friday afternoon along breezy conditions which may result in hazardous travel conditions. Then, below normal temperatures and blustery winds ensue this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Lake Effect Snow Warning for northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties from 7 PM this evening through 7 PM Friday .

Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Bennington County from 7 PM this evening through 7 PM Friday .

As of 652 PM EST . No significant changes with this update. Lake effect snow band organizing across extreme northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. Snowfall rates of around an inch per hour are starting to occur there. Elsewhere, it remains mostly cloudy with a few light snow showers or flurries.

An elongated upper level low over southern Canada will maintain our pattern of zonal/westerly flow aloft tonight with cloudy skies persisting. As a result, there will not be much of a diurnal temperature swing tonight as low temperatures stay above normal by mid- late January standards only falling into the mid to upper 20s. While the westerly flow is not advecting terribly cold air into the Northeast with 850mb isotherms only dropping to -6C to -8C by 12 UTC Friday and sounding profiles only support conditional instability, multiple shortwaves embedded within the zonal flow in the Great Lakes will advance eastward overnight and provide additional forcing for ascent for a single lake effect snow band to develop. This evening's TYX VAD wind profile shows flow at ~925 hPa directed from the west- southwest which is why the develop lake effect band is into the far northern areas of northern Herkimer County, well north of Route 28. Low level flow will then back to the west towards or shortly after 06 UTC which will redirect the single lake effect band southward towards Old Forge and Route 28. Westerly flow (~270 deg) will persist overnight and into Friday morning and as an arctic air mass advances over Lake Ontario, the band will likely become more organized and strengthen resulting in inch per hour snowfall rates which is supporting on the latest HREF probabilities guidance. In addition, the single band will also likely extent in western Hamilton County. At the same time, ongoing westerly flow and cold air advection abutting the terrain in the southern Green Mountains, northern Taconics and Rensselaer Plateau likely will lead to strong upslope snow showers. The latest Froude number from the NAM for these areas support very blocked flow so the highest upslope snow amounts will remain on the westerly slopes.

The single band will continue into Friday morning for areas near and just south of Old Forge and adjacent areas in Hamilton. Given the long residence time of the single lake effect band over these areas, confidence in snow fall amounts ranging 5 to 9 inches increased and we decided to upgrade out winter weather advisory to a Lake Effect Snow Warning for both Hamilton and northern Herkimer County. In addition, the persist upslope snow in the southern Greens in a highly blocked flow pattern also increased confidence that a winter weather advisory was needed for the Bennington County where 3 to 5 inches is expected with even 5 to 6 inches for elevations above 1500 feet. Expected amounts in Washington County and the northern Taconics fell short of advisory criteria near 2 to 3 inches but high res guidance including the RGEM and NAM3km show QPF amounts of 0.25 - 0.30 inches here. With SLRs likely 12 - 15:1, we will monitor observations closely to see if we need to issue a winter weather advisory.

Our arctic front then finally progresses into our southern Adirondack areas by 18 UTC which should disrupt the lake effect snow band. As the arctic front pushes south and eastward, guidance shows a favorable set-up for snow squalls ensuing. While temperatures ahead of the arctic front should peak into the low to mid 30s, squalls should develop in the wake of the boundary between 18 UTC and 21 UTC as the boundary traverses the region. BUFKIT profiles show sufficient low and mid-level moisture in place along with some instability in the boundary layer developing as cold air arrives aloft. Surface winds should shift to the northwest and become breezy with gusts up to 30mph possible which can further reduce visibilities during any snow showers/squalls. High res guidance supports the potential for snow showers and snow squall development as well. The key difference between snow showers and snow squalls stems from the sharp temperature drop that occurs with snow squalls. This can lead to flash freeze situations and thus very dangerous travel conditions as initial snow may melt on roads but then quickly freeze as temperatures drop. Areas may from the Capital District, eastern Catskills northward seem to have the most favorable set-up for snow squalls tomorrow afternoon.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Once we lose daylight, any snow showers/squalls should diminish. As the winds aloft shift to the northwest, lake effect snow should become directed into the far western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County and the eastern Catskill tomorrow night before diminish overnight. With an arctic air mass moving overhead, temperatures Friday night will become chilly, falling into the single digits and teens. Breezy winds overnight will maintain enough mixing that temperatures do not fall to as cold as they could be given the incoming air mass.

High pressure building into the Northeast on Saturday with low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will keep a tight pressure gradient in place over the Northeast. Therefore windy conditions continue into Saturday. With strong northwest flow aloft advecting in 850mb isotherms to -15C to -18C, high temperatures will fail to rise out of the 20s for most areas. Add in the breezy conditons and it will feel like even colder with apparent temperatures in the teens and single digits.

High pressure moves further into place Saturday night, reducing the pressure gradient aloft. With weakening winds and clearing skies, radiational cooling and an arctic air mass overhead will support very chilly temperatures overnight. Expect lows falling into the single digits to low teens throughout the region. High terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens likely will fall below zero.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. A mostly dry and chilly forecast ahead for the forecast area. We start out on Sunday with high pressure building in from the west. Partly sunny skies should prevail with temperatures well below normal. Afternoon highs may struggle to get out of the teens, with low to mid 20s in the valleys and low to mid teens in the high terrain. Sunday night, lows are expected to drop into the single digits and low teens. Some below zero readings look possible across the southern Dacks.

Most of Monday looks dry as the surface high slides off to the east and a wave in the southern stream approaches the region. Highs during the afternoon look a bit closer to normal with values ranging from the low 20s in the high terrain to the low 30s in the Mid- Hudson valley. CLouds will generally increase throughout the day as the next system moves closer, with overnight lows in the single digits to upper teens. The question then turns to how far north with this southern stream system track. Trends over the past few model runs have trended this system further south and may even stay entirely out of the area (per latest GFS. But for now, have backed off on PoPs with best chances for snow across the southern half of the CWA starting early Tuesday through the afternoon. Temperatures will warm slightly throughout the day with highs in the upper teen to low 30s.

This system exits to our southeast as ridging builds back in for mid- week. Another southern stream wave approaches late Wednesday night into Thursday but looks to stay mostly out of the region as it passes to the south. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will range from the upper teens to low 30s. Under partly cloudy skies, overnight lows may dip into the single digits for most.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR conditions in place early this evening, with BKN-OVC cigs. Guidance indicating cig heights should gradually lower this evening, with MVFR heights around 2500-3000 ft AGL becoming likely by around 06Z at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. Cigs expected to remain VFR at KPOU. Cig heights should then rise to VFR levels Friday morning, as mixing develops. However, cigs at KPSF may remain at MVFR levels due to continued upslope westerly flow.

Scattered snow showers and some snow squalls will occur on Friday, as an Arctic cold front moves across the region. Best chance will be at KALB/KGFL/KPSF, where PROB30 mentioned for possible MVFR/IFR conditions associated with snow showers and squalls.

Winds tonight will be south-southwest around 3-7 kt, becoming westerly and increasing to 7-11 kt by early Friday afternoon. Gusts around 20 kt are expected as well.

Outlook .

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHSN. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.

HYDROLOGY. No widespread hydrological issues are expected this week.

Lake effect snow tonight into tomorrow for the southern Adirondacks along with upslope snow showers for the southern Greens, Rensselaer Plateau, northern Taconics and Berkshires will deepen the already existing snow pack. This includes 15 - 20 inches of snow pack in the southern Adirondacks. Additional snow showers and snow squalls tomorrow afternoon for most other areas will only add a few tenths up to an inch of new snow. Cold temperatures will persist this weekend. High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday failing to reach freezing throughout the region with overnight lows falling into the teens and single digits. Such chilly air will support river and lake ice development.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ032-033. MA . None. VT . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for VTZ013.

SYNOPSIS . Speciale NEAR TERM . JPV/Speciale SHORT TERM . Speciale LONG TERM . JLV AVIATION . JPV HYDROLOGY . Speciale


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 69 mi53 min Calm 34°F 1002 hPa24°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY14 mi34 minN 010.00 miOvercast28°F23°F80%1001 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY18 mi32 minSSE 910.00 miLight Snow31°F21°F67%1001.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSCH

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3------------------S6S6S6S5S4S6S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW4------------------W3W6W8------NW18
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2 days ago--------------------CalmCalmS3SW3CalmCalmCalmW8W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Thu -- 12:45 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:33 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:23 AM EST     4.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:14 PM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:39 PM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.62.71.91.30.70.10.112.43.54.24.64.63.93.12.51.91.10.60.81.82.83.43.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Thu -- 12:45 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:23 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:15 AM EST     4.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:04 PM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:31 PM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.61.81.30.60.10.21.22.63.64.34.74.53.832.41.810.50.91.92.93.53.9

Weather Map
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