Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saratoga Springs, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:39PM Sunday July 5, 2020 3:13 PM EDT (19:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:24PMMoonset 5:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saratoga Springs, NY
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location: 43.01, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 051738 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 138 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. Another very warm day in store for the region today, although isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible well north of Albany. Above normal temperatures will persist into mid week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms for parts of the area. Heat and humidity will gradually increase through the work week as well.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 130 pm on our way to another hot day but with low humidity. 12Z KALY RAOB measured just 0.82 inches of PWAT, which is notably low for such a warm airmass. Dewpoints mostly in the low 50s to low 60s and falling. A strong jet streak/disturbance will move in on northwest flow later today, but the lack of moisture will really limit the convective potential, even over northern zones more proximate to the disturbance. Nothing in the 12Z guidance to change the forecast thinking. Still possible for a few showers/storms to survive into our northern tier of counties mainly 21Z.05-03Z.06 as some higher dewpoints may pool just ahead of the disturbance, but given the late time of day, these should be a on a weakening trend. Still can't rule out an isolated gusty wind report in any storm that manages to survive into the southern Adirondacks/Lake George area/southern Vermont later this afternoon/evening, but this would be a low probability/isolated occurrence.

After any lingering showers dissipate early tonight, a tranquil night is expected as higher pressures nose in from the north. Patchy shallow fog will be possible over low lying areas. Lows in the mid-50s to low 60s, not far off normals due to the rather dry airmass.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Northwest flow regime looks to persist on Monday. NAM/GFS now indicating a weak disturbance tracking southeast near the NY/PA border during the afternoon and evening. With at least modest instability forecast (around 1000-1500 J/Kg) across the Catskills and mid Hudson Valley eastward to the Litchfield Hills, will mention slight/low chance of thunderstorms. 0-6 km shear looks to be fairly weak ~20 kt, but given CAPE values and relatively high DCAPE, brief strong wind gusts will be possible with any storms. Areas farther north should remain dry, with no discernible forcing mechanism and rising heights aloft. It will be another warm day, maybe a degree or two "cooler" than Sunday with highs in the mid/upper 80s for valleys.

Chances for convection will gradually wane Monday evening as the disturbance tracks farther southeast into PA/NJ. Then dry conditions expected for the rest of the night with similar temperatures compared to recent nights.

On Tuesday there appears to be a somewhat greater coverage of scattered showers/storms as a pseudo-warm front moves across the region during the afternoon. Forcing still not very robust, so will generally mention 30-40 percent chance at this time. Again, deep layer wind shear looks to be weak, but building instability and increasing PWAT anomalies (+1 to +2 STDEV) could result in downpours and brief gusty winds with any thunderstorms. Assuming only scattered coverage of convection, temperatures should be able to warm well into the 80s for much of eastern NY. It should be slightly cooler in western New England as the warm front may not arrive until later in the day. Scattered showers/storms could linger into the evening, but will likely decrease in coverage/intensity as stabilization occurs. Tuesday night will be warm and more humid than recent nights, with lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. There is a consensus from guidance/ensembles for a quick moving upper disturbance to track through our region Wednesday. Flat upper ridging will build east a little more behind the upper disturbance, with slight warming at the boundary layer. There is not much low level jet energy but with the heat and instability along with some convergent flow at the boundary layer, scattered thunderstorms can be expected across our region Wednesday, especially afternoon and evening. Outside of the storms, lots of sun and heat, with highs in the 80s to around 90.

Thursday looks mainly dry with just isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening just due to the heat and humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices Thursday may require heat headlines.

Southern stream upper energy organizes in the SE U.S. and mid Atlantic states Thursday, and drifts north and east Friday and Saturday. Northern stream upper energy just north of the U.S./Canadian border tracks toward our region as well. The northern stream upper energy may draw the southern stream energy north and east into or just east of our region.

Timing of better coverage of thunderstorms will depend if the storms are associated more with the northern stream upper energy and cold front or the southern stream energy. Either way, indicating scattered thunderstorms both afternoons. There should be considerable sun outside of storms. So, highs Friday in the 80s to around 90 and on Saturday perhaps a degree or two cooler.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Through 18z/Mon . VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. A few fair weather cu around 7000 ft will be around this afternoon, mainly from KALB/KPSF on north; otherwise, just high cirrus. Any showers that develop late this afternoon and evening should dissipate prior to reaching KGFL, so will continue to withhold including VCSH.

Some mid- and high level clouds will pass by tonight. This should prevent fog formation at the TAF sites. However, these clouds may depart early enough at KGFL for possible fog formation, but confidence is low. Monday morning will start out mostly sunny with perhaps a few fair weather cu developing during the late morning.

Wind will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 kt or less this afternoon, then become calm tonight. Wind will be variable at 8 kt or less Monday.

Outlook .

Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact Scattered SHRA. TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact Isolated SHRA. TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact Isolated SHRA. TSRA.

FIRE WEATHER. Another very warm day in store for the region today, although isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible well north of Albany. Above normal temperatures will persist into mid week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms for parts of the area. Heat and humidity will gradually increase through the work week as well.

Relative humidity values will drop to around 35 to 45 percent this afternoon, recovering to maximum values of between 80 and 100 percent tonight. RH values will drop to around 35 to 45 percent again Tuesday afternoon.

Winds today will be west-northwest around 5 to 10 mph, becoming northwest less than 5 mph tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be northerly around 5 mph.

HYDROLOGY. Most of the forecast area remains in the abnormally dry to moderate drought categories on the latest US Drought Monitor, however some areas have seen beneficial rain in the last week. No precipitation of hydrological significance is expected through at least Tuesday, although widely scattered thunderstorms could bring rainfall to some spots.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . JPV NEAR TERM . Thompson SHORT TERM . JPV LONG TERM . NAS AVIATION . Rathbun FIRE WEATHER . JPV HYDROLOGY . Thompson/JPV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 69 mi103 min Calm 86°F 1013 hPa62°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY14 mi75 minW 615.00 miA Few Clouds88°F55°F33%1013.9 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY18 mi82 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F55°F34%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSCH

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W6--------------------CalmW5--NW7NW4NW4W6W9
G19
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalm--SW4Calm------------------W3NW3N3--CalmS3SE3E6
2 days agoW8W12
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E8CalmCalmCalmE3------------------W8CalmNW4NW3CalmCalmNE7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:37 PM EDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:19 PM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.31.83.24.45.35.6542.91.80.5-0.6-0.70.21.52.63.443.83.12.31.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:27 PM EDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:11 PM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.523.44.65.45.54.93.82.71.60.3-0.7-0.60.41.72.73.543.732.21.50.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.