Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 10:03 PM   Moonset 6:28 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 250803 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 403 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build in today into tonight, providing cool but dry conditions and clear skies. The high will only gradually shift east off the New England coast through Friday night, with continued dry and cool weather. An approaching warm front may bring some showers late Saturday into Sunday, before summer like temperatures arrive on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A large area of high pressure will build in from the north/west through today, providing abundant sunshine and a cool light northerly flow. After a cold start to the day with most of the area in the 20s/30s, temperatures will warm into the mid/upper 40s in the higher terrain and lower/mid 50s in the valleys due to the strength of late April sun. Despite diurnal temperature rises of around 25-30 degrees, highs will still be several degrees below normal with an anomalously cool air mass in place(850 mb temperature anomalies -1 to -2 STDEV).

The high will be directly over the region tonight, with winds becoming calm and continued clear skies. So ideal radiational conditions will occur, with low temperatures mainly in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will gradually move east into New England on Friday, with continued light winds and sunny skies across our area. Temperatures will start to moderate close to normal levels for highs in the afternoon, with lower/mid 50s in the mountains and upper 50s to lower 60s in most lower elevations. Again, abundant sunshine will occur due to strong subsidence and a very dry air mass (PWAT anomalies -1 to -2 STDEV).

A slight southerly flow will develop Fri night as high pressure moves off the New England coast. However, it will be mainly clear and dry again, so this should result in cool low temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

An upper level ridge axis will move east across the region on Sat, while surface high pressure remains south/east of coastal New England. Dry conditions should prevail through much of the day. A warm front approaching from the west will bring increasing clouds during the afternoon. A few showers may occur late in the day for areas west of the Hudson Valley. Highs should warm to normal levels as the air mass moderates with enough sunshine into the afternoon. Southerly winds will increase as the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts around 15-25 mph expected to develop in the afternoon.

The upper ridge axis is forecast to shift east into New England Sat night, as the surface warm front lifts northeast across the region Sat night. This will result in a better chance for some showers, which look to be mainly scattered in coverage. With the clouds and showers around, lows will be milder than recent night with 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The extended forecast period opens with scattered, light showers, particularly north and west of Albany, as a warm front tracks across the region from east to west. With mid- to upper- level ridging dominant across much of the East Coast and high pressure building across southeast Canada, little moisture will be available to allow these showers to contribute much in the way of QPF. Still, Sunday will be a partly to mostly cloudy day with high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s with west to southwest flow providing decent advection of warm air.

Lingering showers taper off by Sunday afternoon/evening as the aforementioned ridge amplifies and the low associated with the warm front is forced east with the eastward push of the southeast Canada high. Monday, therefore, looks to be fairly dry as subsidence increases briefly in response to the increased strength of the ridge. In addition to dry, Monday also looks to feature early Summer-like temperatures as the ridge axis moves overhead and flow aloft backs further to the southwest.
Confidence is increasing in high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s with pockets of low 70s above 2000 ft.

Precipitation chances then increase heading into Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts east and begins to break down in response to a low pressure system approaching the Hudson Bay area from the western Great Lakes. Throughout the day Tuesday, warm air and moisture advection will increase as the system's warm front tracks through the region. Widespread showers are expected to develop along and ahead of the warm front with the possibility of some embedded thunderstorms developing in the warm sector ahead of the close-following cold front. Any developing thunderstorms would be more likely in the afternoon Tuesday and would likely die off after sunset due to the loss of diurnal heating, but showers could linger through Wednesday morning. A brief break in shower activity then comes Wednesday afternoon before a shortwave disturbance increases shower potential again Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

High temperatures Tuesday will be similar to Monday with upper 60s to upper 70s across the area. It is possible that some near 80 values be observed in Valley areas, but such is uncertain at this time with the expectation of greater cloud coverage to Monday. Wednesday and Thursday will be the cooler days of the period with 60s to low 70s expected Wednesday and upper 50s to upper 60s and pockets near 70 Thursday.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06z Friday...With high pressure dominating the region, skies are anticipated to remain clear through the entirety of the 06z TAF period. As such, VFR conditions that currently prevail at all terminals will persist. Though a prime radiative cooling environment exists, dry surface conditions paired with intermittent light breezes across the region negate the concern for fog development.

Winds throughout the 06z TAF period will prevail out of the north to northeast to start, but back to the northwest by the end of the cycle. Sustained speeds of 5-8 kt are expected.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Thu -- 01:15 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     5.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:52 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
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Thu -- 01:05 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     5.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:42 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
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Albany, New York, Tide feet

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