Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saratoga Springs, NY

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Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 7:10 AM EDT (11:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:56PMMoonset 11:49AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saratoga Springs, NY
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location: 43.01, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 211103
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
703 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
It will become warm and muggy today as a warm front tracks
northward. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected today into this evening, with some storms possibly
becoming severe. Additional rain showers are possible on
Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front slowly crosses the
area. Fair and cool weather is forecast for Friday into
Saturday, with isolated showers possible by Sunday as an upper
level disturbance passes nearby.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Slight risk for severe thunderstorms across eastern ny and
adjacent western new england for today...

as of 7am am edt, clusters of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
an approaching warm front have impacted the mohawk valley,
capital district and southern vt early this morning with a few
bowing segments warranting and verifying severe thunderstorms.

With such a humid air mass in place, storms have efficiently
produced heavy rain with nys mesonet stations measuring nearly
an 1.50" in less than 30 minutes. Expect clusters of showers
and thunderstorms to continue progressing northeastward towards
new england through daybreak with additional showers and storms
in western and central ny expected to expand eastward into the
aly CWA this morning. Best chances seem to be mainly north of
the i-90 as shown in the 06z NAM nest which has done very well
with the track of the early morning convection. Additional
storms this morning will continue to have potential to produce
heavy downpours, frequent lightning and we will monitor severe
potential. Given recent rounds of heavy rain, we will also
monitor flooding potential as the some ground surfaces have
become saturated.

Previous discussion... This initial band of showers storms seems
to be tied to a surge of mid level warm advection, with the
nose of a strengthening low level jet segment approaching from
the northern mid atlantic states.

Additional showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across western
nys and pa. These showers storms were closer to a mid upper
level shortwave located across the central eastern great lakes.

It is this feature that looks to bring the main threat for
severe thunderstorms today.

As this wave approaches from the west, south to southwest winds
within the mid levels of the atmosphere are expected to increase
to 30-40 kt, resulting in strong deep-layer shear. Combined with
increasing instability with href mean MUCAPE reaching 1000-2000
j kg, should support organized convection late this morning
through at least mid afternoon. It appears that the greatest
threat for severe thunderstorms will be from the eastern mohawk
valley into the saratoga region, and points south and east,
possibly maximized immediately south and east of the capital
region into the mid hudson valley, NW ct and into berkshire
county where instability may be slightly greater if breaks in
the clouds briefly develop later this morning. Main threats will
be damaging winds, however large hail will also be possible with
the strongest storms due to the rather strong deep layer shear.

In addition, low level helicity (both 0-1 km and 0-3 km)
increase to over 100 m2 s2 within portions of the hudson river
valley and points east early this afternoon. So, can not rule
out a tornado or two.

Heavy rainfall will also be a threat today, as there is some
potential for training backbuilding of cells, despite relatively
quick forward movement. This potential may be maximized across
portions of the mohawk valley, saratoga county into southern vt,
where enhanced low level convergence is suggested by some
mesoscale models. Isolated flash flooding may occur if cells
train and repeated thunderstorms occur in any location.

Otherwise, even non-training cells will easily have the
potential to cause ponding of water in poor drainage, urban and
low lying areas.

It appears the best potential for severe thunderstorms time-wise
may be roughly between noon and 4 pm, with a possible decrease
in severe threat from west to east after 4 pm as the mid level
wave passes into new england.

Highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s most areas, although
some mid upper 80s could occur if some Sun breaks through at
times within the mid hudson valley and lower elevations in nw
ct.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Tonight, there still could be isolated to scattered
thunderstorms through midnight, as mid level heights continue
lowering with the approach of the main trough and surface cold
front from the west. Convective chances should decrease after
midnight, with patchy areas of fog possibly developing. Lows
mainly in the 60s.

Thursday, the surface cold front will slowly cross the region
from NW to se, with the approach of a positively tilted trough
from the great lakes. Isolated showers will remain possible
until the front passes, and can not rule out some non-severe
thunderstorms across portions of the mid hudson valley and NW ct
during the early-mid afternoon hours as href mean mu capes reach
500-1000 j kg. Highs should reach the lower mid 80s in valley
areas, and 70s most higher terrain areas. Some upper 80s may
occur across portions of the mid hudson valley where downsloping
nw winds will be possible.

Thursday night, the 00z 21 NAM and ECMWF suggest a wave of low
pressure potentially ripples along the frontal boundary to our
south. This may allow showers to redevelop and expand as far
north as the i-90 corridor. Have indicated slight chance to low
chance pops to account for this possibility. Lows in the 50s to
lower 60s.

Friday-Friday night, cooler and less humid conditions are
expected. Still can not rule out an isolated shower Friday with
the passage of the main upper level trough cold pool, with
chances mainly across northern areas. Highs Friday mainly in the
70s in valleys, with some 60s across higher terrain areas. Lows
Friday night in the 50s, with 40s possible across northern
areas.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Despite some differences in the modeled flow pattern between the
ecmwf and NCEP camps, fairly good agreement that the long term
period will have very low probability of hazardous weather. The
airmass will likely be fairly dry with model consensus of pwats less
than 0.75 inches for the most part except perhaps for Tuesday. The
main difference within the medium range guidance is that the last
two runs of the ECMWF show a deeper and westward-shifted trough
compared with the gfs GEFS mean. The ECMWF suggests this low cuts
off and hovers over the region for Sunday Monday, while the GFS gefs
mean shunt the trough eastward and do not develop a cutoff, allowing
the upstream ridge to build overhead. The difference in the sensible
weather with a cutoff would likely be more cloud cover and perhaps
some diurnal showers. At this time, will lean toward the ncep
solution noting the absence of GEFS members showing a cutoff. The
upshot is a dry forecast for Saturday through Monday with
comfortable humidity levels and temperatures near to slightly below
normal. Will introduce chance pops for Tuesday as the GFS and some
gefs members indicate the ridge shifting east with ascent and
moisture return ahead of an advancing trough.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 0530z, mainly clear skies over the terminals with bands of
cirrus advancing from the west. Typical fog has developed at
kgfl, and expect this to continue at times through around 10z or
so when it may dissipate some as a thicker area of midlevel
clouds approaches. In the 10-14z timeframe, there are signals
that showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms will
develop along a diffuse warm front. Handled this with prevailing
shra and vcts. Will keep flying conditionsVFR with this
activity, but there could be some MVFR CIGS vsby and even
potentially some ifr if a heavier downpour associated with a ts
develops.

Attention then turns to potential for convection from the late
morning into the evening. Low confidence forecast with respect
to timing and coverage of convection. Lingering cloud cover and
showers in the late morning early afternoon may hamper
instability, especially at kgfl. However, there is enough of a
signal to mention prob30 for TS at all terminals. For kgfl kalb,
the most favored timeframe is 17-21z, while at kpou kpsf it is
18-24z. If breaks in the clouds showers develop late morning
into early afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible with damaging winds and large hail becoming the
hazards. Brief periods of ifr vsby is possible in heavier
showers and thunderstorms during this timeframe, but outside of
thunderstorms expect mainlyVFR conditions with stratocumulus
based around 3.5-5kft agl.

After 00z.22, showers and thunderstorms will decrease in
intensity and coverage. Some mist may develop where rainfall
occurred earlier, especially at kgfl kpsf.

Winds will remain less than 10 kt through the TAF period,
becoming mainly southerly during the day today.

Outlook...

Thursday night: low operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: low operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Fire weather
It will become warm and muggy today as a warm front tracks
northward. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected today into this evening, with some storms possibly
becoming severe. Additional rain showers are possible on
Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front slowly crosses the
area. Fair and cool weather is forecast for Friday into
Saturday, with isolated showers possible by Sunday as an upper
level disturbance passes nearby.

Hydrology
An anomalously moist airmass will spread back into the region
today with pwat values increasing to 1.50-2.00 inches. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the moist
airmass, and any storm will be capable of heavy rainfall.

Though individual storms may be fast moving, there is potential
for repeated rounds of storms which will lead to the threat of
urban poor drainage flooding and possible isolated flash
flooding.

Isolated showers are possible Thursday, with showers possible
across southern areas Thursday night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday into Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Snd kl
near term... Kl speciale
short term... Kl
long term... Thompson
aviation... Thompson
fire weather... Mse kl thompson
hydrology... Mse kl thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 69 mi40 min Calm 70°F 1014 hPa70°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY18 mi19 minESE 710.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain70°F66°F87%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSCH

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------NW8W5NW4Calm--Calm----CalmCalm--S4--CalmCalm
1 day ago------------------CalmCalm--CalmCalmW6--W6----W6W5W5NW6NW5
2 days ago------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmE4SE3NE12CalmNW3--

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Wed -- 04:27 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:41 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:11 PM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.71.20.80.40.41.42.73.74.24.23.72.71.50.70.3-0.1-0.20.62.13.54.24.54.4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Wed -- 04:17 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:26 AM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:31 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:03 PM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.61.10.70.30.51.62.93.84.24.23.62.51.30.70.3-0.1-0.10.82.33.64.34.54.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.