Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:18PM Monday December 9, 2019 1:16 PM CST (19:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:59PMMoonset 5:15AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 106 Pm Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the afternoon. Isolated showers early in the afternoon, then numerous snow showers with possible freezing rain and showers likely late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..West wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots in the late evening and early morning, then backing west early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ645 Expires:201912092300;;101438 FZUS53 KMKX 091906 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-092300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 091754 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

UPDATE. Hoisted Winter Weather Advisory to account for a quick hitting band of snow moving through this afternoon. Some slushy accums can't be ruled out. Main impact will be 1/4 to 1/2SM vsbys as band moves through. May see some refreeze overnight as colder air funnels into the area and surface temps respond to the subfreezing temps.

PC

AVIATION(18Z TAFS). Widespread LIFR conditions with lower cigs/vsbys in place with broad low across the area. This will improve somewhat and have been seeing an overall improving trend in vsbys. However band of moderate to heavy snow showers will sweep through this afternoon with vsbys going down to 1/4 to 1/2 mile for a short period of time. Some slushy accums possible due to the snow intensity. Cold advection works in overnight with some refreeze potential as road surface temps respond to the influx of colder air.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 908 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019)

UPDATE . Still widespread fog out there and some drizzle too. Re-issued SPS to highlight some of the areas that have vsbys aob 1/2SM. Otherwise forecast on track at the moment.

PC

MARINE . Hoisted a dense fog advisory for mainly the southern areas where higher dew point air resides. This is also where webcams are showing fairly poor visibilities.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 613 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019)

UPDATE .

Forecast remains on track. Areas of fog persist across most of the area this morning with visibilities dropping below 2 miles at most locations. Light rain/drizzle continues across our eastern areas this morning, but did bump PoPs down a bit out west for this morning. Could see a lull in the rain and drizzle mid-morning as the center of the surface low moves over wisconsin, but as the mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region, expect another round of rain transitioning to a wintry mix late afternoon/evening. Then a cold front will traverse through the area and breezy northerly winds will develop by this evening.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

Mostly IFR ceilings and visibilities will continue through most of the day today across South Wisconsin terminals. This morning's light rain/drizzle will persist as well. May see it diminish a bit by mid-morning, but expect another round of rain transitioning to a wintry mix late afternoon/evening. Then breezy northerly winds will develop late this afternoon/evening in the wake of the passing cold front. Breezy conditions will last through the end of the period with ceilings improving to MVFR levels.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 352 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019)

DISCUSSION .

Today and Tonight . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

So far most of the light rain and drizzle has been limited to area east of the Kettle Moraine early this morning. As a surface low pushes into Southern Wisconsin this morning, fog has developed and will persist across portions of southwestern Wisconsin over the next few hours. The initial round of light rain/drizzle will likely taper off and go into a lull later this morning. As a mid- level shortwave trough pushes into the western Great Lakes, can expect another round of precipitation with mainly rain this afternoon. As temperatures fall, rain will give way to a wintry mix late afternoon/evening. Best chances for accumulating snow, generally less than an inch, will be for areas north of I-94, while more of a mix of rain/snow will be possible for the southern areas. As the cold front pushes through and mid-level drying occurs, some freezing rain may be possible at times. Precipitation will quickly diminish tonight as cold, dry air pushes into the area. Additionally, strong gusty winds will develop late this afternoon/evening behind the cold front as well. Can expect colder temperatures tonight with lows in the teens and dipping into the single digits across the Wisconsin river valley.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Forecast confidence is high.

No big changes to this cold forecast, though it doesn't look quite as cold on Wednesday. We should see more clouds later Tuesday/Wednesday morning and this will keep temps a tad warmer than previously expected for Wed morning lows. Wind chills are now only running 5 to 10 below north of Milwaukee and Madison and around zero south. The models are showing a mid level short wave pushing across the Great Lakes early Wednesday (the source of the clouds). However, the soundings look very dry other than a shallow low level layer of moisture. So, won't mention any flurries or light snow at this time.

Thursday through Sunday . Forecast confidence is medium.

The pattern continues to transition into a more zonal flow for the latter half of the week. This allows temps to return to more normal levels by the end of the week. In addition, a series of short waves will track through the region. The models suggest one fast mover on Thursday could produce some light snow, mainly north of Milwaukee and Madison. There's another one later Friday into Friday night that could do the same. Surface cyclogenesis occurs to our east with a surface low moving northeast along the Appalachians Friday night into Saturday. The precip shield may spread as far west as Wisconsin, so we may see some mixed rain/snow with that given our more mild temps moving in. Sunday is looking fairly dry right now.

Monday . Forecast confidence is low.

The ECMWF is cranking up a strong surface low over the Ohio Valley and lifting it northeast next Monday. It has a rather copious precip axis lifting into southern Wisconsin Monday through Tuesday . all snow. Meanwhile, the GFS shows a similar low intensity/track, but it keeps the precip south of Wisconsin. Typically, a track this far south and east wouldn't bring us the precip the ECMWF is producing. Certainly way too far off to get too concerned/excited for snow, but it is a system that will have to be watched over the next week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

Light rain/drizzle continues to push through southern Wisconsin. A surface low is currently moving across the area and with the increasing moisture and light winds, fog has developed for portions of the area as well. Mostly IFR ceilings have developed at the southern Wisconsin terminals and will likely persist through the day. Otherwise, expect another round of wintry precipitation this afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front with gusty northerly winds developing this evening in its wake.

MARINE .

A surface low continues to push into the area early this morning and will then move across Lake Michigan through the day today. Winds will remain lighter and more variable this morning/early afternoon. However, stronger north to northwest winds will develop this afternoon behind a cold front and will persist overnight tonight. Winds will gradually diminish and breezy westerly winds will linger into Tuesday. A much colder airmass will follow which will lead to freezing spray at times through mid-week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM to 5 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-069>072.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ046- 047-056-057-062-063-067-068.

LM . Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for LMZ080-643>646-669- 671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ080-675-777-779-876-878.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Wagner Tuesday through Sunday . Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi37 min E 1.9 G 2.9 40°F 997 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi77 min SW 8 G 13 46°F 997 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi25 minSW 73.00 miFog/Mist46°F42°F86%995.8 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi32 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist43°F39°F87%995.9 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi32 minSW 35.00 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%995.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi24 minWSW 59.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%996.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKE

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13SW9SW8SW6CalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE4E5SE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W5W4SW5SW3SW7
1 day agoSW14
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2 days agoNW9N7N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5S4SW3SW4S6SW8SW7SW6S5S6S7S10SW11SW11S11
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.