Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilmington, VT
December 7, 2023 8:53 PM EST (01:53 UTC)
Sunrise 7:04AM Sunset 4:16PM Moonrise 2:22AM Moonset 2:19PM
Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 080000 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 700 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Areas of light snow will taper off overnight, as a slow moving warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm front will slowly lift northward Friday into Saturday, bringing milder temperatures despite occasional clouds. A strong cold front will bring a period of heavy rain and gusty winds late Sunday into Sunday night, with rain possibly ending as snow Monday morning as colder air surges into the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Update
As of 7:00 PM EST...Still seeing a few light snow showers extending from the southwestern ADKs through the Capital District and into southwestern New England, but any remaining snow showers are very light with only ad additional coating expected for these areas before the snow showers taper off over the next few hours. Did increase cloud cover through the next several hours for the entire area except the CT River Valley in southern VT based on current satellite trends, but otherwise just minor adjustments to the previous forecast to reflect current trends....
Previous
Areas of light snow should decrease in coverage between by 8-9 PM, especially across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, and after 8 PM farther north across the Capital Region and Taconics. Some spotty very light precipitation may linger across the Mohawk Valley, SW Adirondacks and northern portions of the Capital Region (Saratoga/Glens Falls) and SW VT through midnight. As cloud depth decreases and cloud tops warm into the -5 to -8 C range, overall ice nuclei will decrease, and some patchy freezing drizzle and snow grains will be possible, particularly within the Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks. Will have to watch trends through this evening in case freezing drizzle potential becomes slightly greater/widespread, as some SPS's may be needed.
Elsewhere, mainly cloudy skies are expected overnight, although some breaks could develop across portions of the mid Hudson Valley, SE VT, and perhaps upper Hudson Valley after midnight.
Temperatures should only fall slightly from current levels in most areas, generally into the lower/mid 20s, although some upper teens could occur across some northern areas if any breaks in the clouds develop.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Warm front will slowly lift northward across the region during Friday, with areas of lower clouds to its north. These clouds may persist for areas north of I-90 into the afternoon, with some clearing possible to the south. Max temps should reach 40-45 for lower elevations south of I-90, and 35-40 to the north and across higher terrain.
Another shortwave and surge of mid level warm advection will move across the region Friday night, with some mid level clouds.
A few sprinkles/flurries can not be ruled out across the southern Adirondacks, especially after midnight. Low temps in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Milder air should spread northward on Saturday, although there is a slight chance that low clouds may linger across portions of the region, especially north of I-90, which could limit warming potential. Currently forecasting 45-50 for valley areas near and south of I-90, and 40-45 to the north, however some northern areas (especially upper Hudson Valley and eastern Mohawk Valley)
could remain cooler.
Saturday night should start partly cloudy, with clouds becoming more widespread through the night. Some showers may develop across the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley toward daybreak. Low temps mainly in the 30s, although should some enough breaks in the clouds occur early, some 20s could occur early at night across portions of the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A potentially impactful storm system is expected Sunday evening into Monday morning across eastern NY and Western New England.
While forecast confidence has increased regarding this multi- hazard event, there are still a handful of details that need to be ironed out. These include the storm track, precipitation types, and wind speeds....
Sunday morning, the center of the developing cyclone will still be located well to the southwest of our area. Positive cyclonic vorticity advection and divergence of ageostrophic wind downstream of the large-scale trough situated over the Great Plains will result in heights quickly falling across the Midwest into the Northeast CONUS. By the afternoon, a southerly low- level jet will be cranking across the area with 925-hPa winds of 35-50 kt expected. The cyclone's warm front will push northward and move through the area. Highs Sunday afternoon will soar into the 50s across the region. Light precipitation, initially forced by isentropic lifting on the 300 K pressure surfaces will, overspread the region from west to east shortly after noon.
The cyclone's cold front finally pushes through the region Sunday evening into the early overnight hours with a narrow convective rain band expected to quickly track across the region. With the LLJ cranking, this convection will help to mix some of the strong gusty winds to the surface. This will especially be the case if some elevated instability (i.e.
negative showalter indices) can develop ahead of the line.
Fortunately, model soundings on BUFKIT show an inversion that may prevent some of the strongest winds from mixing down to the surface. There is also a non-zero chance of a rumble or thunder or two across the southern portions of the southern zone. For now, will defer mention in the grids to later shifts until the CAMs come into range.
In addition to the wind and thunder threat, the quick-hitting burst heavy rainfall will result in hydrologic concerns. With storm total QPF ranging from 2-3 inches across the area, river rises are expected and areas of poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out. We have been in close coordination with the NERFC.
For more information, please refer to the hydrologic section of the discussion below.
Over the past 24 hours, forecast trends in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance have shifted the track of the wave of low pressure to near or just southeast Albany. This will allow for cold air to drain into the region from the north overnight Sunday and introduces the possibility of wet snow on the backside of the cyclone. Accordingly, models have trended cooler over the past 24 hours associated with the farther southeast track. A transition to snow is now expected Sunday night, especially across the higher terrain. There is even a small chance that we could see some wet snowflakes in the valley near daybreak Monday. While it is far too early to discuss accumulations, the latest WPC Winter Storm Outlook (WSO)
indicates a 30-50% chance of exceeding warning criteria north of Route 28 across Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. We have updated the HWO to mention the possibility of snow on the backside.
Please stay tuned for additional updates on this complex storm system.
From Monday afternoon onwards, followed the NBM very closely.
With the flow becoming northwesterly, some lake effect snow showers are possible Monday afternoon across the higher terrain.
On Wednesday, a weaker cold front may trigger some light snow showers. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions with near seasonable temperatures.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 00z Saturday...Currently seeing VFR cigs at ALB and MVFR cigs/vsbys at PSF, with VFR conditions at GFL and POU. VFR conditions should continue at POU through the duration of the TAF period, but expecting a trend down to MVFR at GFL within the next few hours. Have included VCSH groups this evening at all TAF sites and tempo groups at ALB/PSF where some light snow is currently falling, but little to no additional snow accumulation is expected and vsbys should remain MVFR or higher in any snow showers.
Snow showers come to an end within the next few hours, but will have continued MVFR cigs around through most of the night and through 12-15z tomorrow morning at ALB/GFL/PSF. There is a low chance for some borderline IFR cigs at PSF, mainly between 05z and 10z, but confidence is not high enough at this time to include in the TAF. Cigs improve back to VFR tomorrow by mid to late morning at all TAF sites, with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds around through the remainder of the TAF period.
Winds will generally be light and variable at 5 kt or less through at least 00z Saturday.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely RA
SN.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
A strong cold front is expected to move across the region Sunday evening bringing a period of heavy rainfall to the area.
Total QPF from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning will range from 2 to 3 inches across the area. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out across the higher terrain of the Catskills.
Some rivers could approach bankfull or even minor flood stage.
This is supported by latest river ensemble guidance from the HEFS/NAEFS. If this threat materializes will depend on much rain falls, how much snow can melt out of higher elevations, and frozen versus non frozen ground. There could be some nuisance urban and small stream flooding in low lying areas as well.
The latest WPC Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook placed the entire hydrologic service area within a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. We will continue to carefully monitor trends.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 700 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Areas of light snow will taper off overnight, as a slow moving warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm front will slowly lift northward Friday into Saturday, bringing milder temperatures despite occasional clouds. A strong cold front will bring a period of heavy rain and gusty winds late Sunday into Sunday night, with rain possibly ending as snow Monday morning as colder air surges into the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Update
As of 7:00 PM EST...Still seeing a few light snow showers extending from the southwestern ADKs through the Capital District and into southwestern New England, but any remaining snow showers are very light with only ad additional coating expected for these areas before the snow showers taper off over the next few hours. Did increase cloud cover through the next several hours for the entire area except the CT River Valley in southern VT based on current satellite trends, but otherwise just minor adjustments to the previous forecast to reflect current trends....
Previous
Areas of light snow should decrease in coverage between by 8-9 PM, especially across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, and after 8 PM farther north across the Capital Region and Taconics. Some spotty very light precipitation may linger across the Mohawk Valley, SW Adirondacks and northern portions of the Capital Region (Saratoga/Glens Falls) and SW VT through midnight. As cloud depth decreases and cloud tops warm into the -5 to -8 C range, overall ice nuclei will decrease, and some patchy freezing drizzle and snow grains will be possible, particularly within the Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks. Will have to watch trends through this evening in case freezing drizzle potential becomes slightly greater/widespread, as some SPS's may be needed.
Elsewhere, mainly cloudy skies are expected overnight, although some breaks could develop across portions of the mid Hudson Valley, SE VT, and perhaps upper Hudson Valley after midnight.
Temperatures should only fall slightly from current levels in most areas, generally into the lower/mid 20s, although some upper teens could occur across some northern areas if any breaks in the clouds develop.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Warm front will slowly lift northward across the region during Friday, with areas of lower clouds to its north. These clouds may persist for areas north of I-90 into the afternoon, with some clearing possible to the south. Max temps should reach 40-45 for lower elevations south of I-90, and 35-40 to the north and across higher terrain.
Another shortwave and surge of mid level warm advection will move across the region Friday night, with some mid level clouds.
A few sprinkles/flurries can not be ruled out across the southern Adirondacks, especially after midnight. Low temps in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Milder air should spread northward on Saturday, although there is a slight chance that low clouds may linger across portions of the region, especially north of I-90, which could limit warming potential. Currently forecasting 45-50 for valley areas near and south of I-90, and 40-45 to the north, however some northern areas (especially upper Hudson Valley and eastern Mohawk Valley)
could remain cooler.
Saturday night should start partly cloudy, with clouds becoming more widespread through the night. Some showers may develop across the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley toward daybreak. Low temps mainly in the 30s, although should some enough breaks in the clouds occur early, some 20s could occur early at night across portions of the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A potentially impactful storm system is expected Sunday evening into Monday morning across eastern NY and Western New England.
While forecast confidence has increased regarding this multi- hazard event, there are still a handful of details that need to be ironed out. These include the storm track, precipitation types, and wind speeds....
Sunday morning, the center of the developing cyclone will still be located well to the southwest of our area. Positive cyclonic vorticity advection and divergence of ageostrophic wind downstream of the large-scale trough situated over the Great Plains will result in heights quickly falling across the Midwest into the Northeast CONUS. By the afternoon, a southerly low- level jet will be cranking across the area with 925-hPa winds of 35-50 kt expected. The cyclone's warm front will push northward and move through the area. Highs Sunday afternoon will soar into the 50s across the region. Light precipitation, initially forced by isentropic lifting on the 300 K pressure surfaces will, overspread the region from west to east shortly after noon.
The cyclone's cold front finally pushes through the region Sunday evening into the early overnight hours with a narrow convective rain band expected to quickly track across the region. With the LLJ cranking, this convection will help to mix some of the strong gusty winds to the surface. This will especially be the case if some elevated instability (i.e.
negative showalter indices) can develop ahead of the line.
Fortunately, model soundings on BUFKIT show an inversion that may prevent some of the strongest winds from mixing down to the surface. There is also a non-zero chance of a rumble or thunder or two across the southern portions of the southern zone. For now, will defer mention in the grids to later shifts until the CAMs come into range.
In addition to the wind and thunder threat, the quick-hitting burst heavy rainfall will result in hydrologic concerns. With storm total QPF ranging from 2-3 inches across the area, river rises are expected and areas of poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out. We have been in close coordination with the NERFC.
For more information, please refer to the hydrologic section of the discussion below.
Over the past 24 hours, forecast trends in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance have shifted the track of the wave of low pressure to near or just southeast Albany. This will allow for cold air to drain into the region from the north overnight Sunday and introduces the possibility of wet snow on the backside of the cyclone. Accordingly, models have trended cooler over the past 24 hours associated with the farther southeast track. A transition to snow is now expected Sunday night, especially across the higher terrain. There is even a small chance that we could see some wet snowflakes in the valley near daybreak Monday. While it is far too early to discuss accumulations, the latest WPC Winter Storm Outlook (WSO)
indicates a 30-50% chance of exceeding warning criteria north of Route 28 across Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. We have updated the HWO to mention the possibility of snow on the backside.
Please stay tuned for additional updates on this complex storm system.
From Monday afternoon onwards, followed the NBM very closely.
With the flow becoming northwesterly, some lake effect snow showers are possible Monday afternoon across the higher terrain.
On Wednesday, a weaker cold front may trigger some light snow showers. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions with near seasonable temperatures.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 00z Saturday...Currently seeing VFR cigs at ALB and MVFR cigs/vsbys at PSF, with VFR conditions at GFL and POU. VFR conditions should continue at POU through the duration of the TAF period, but expecting a trend down to MVFR at GFL within the next few hours. Have included VCSH groups this evening at all TAF sites and tempo groups at ALB/PSF where some light snow is currently falling, but little to no additional snow accumulation is expected and vsbys should remain MVFR or higher in any snow showers.
Snow showers come to an end within the next few hours, but will have continued MVFR cigs around through most of the night and through 12-15z tomorrow morning at ALB/GFL/PSF. There is a low chance for some borderline IFR cigs at PSF, mainly between 05z and 10z, but confidence is not high enough at this time to include in the TAF. Cigs improve back to VFR tomorrow by mid to late morning at all TAF sites, with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds around through the remainder of the TAF period.
Winds will generally be light and variable at 5 kt or less through at least 00z Saturday.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely RA
SN.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
A strong cold front is expected to move across the region Sunday evening bringing a period of heavy rainfall to the area.
Total QPF from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning will range from 2 to 3 inches across the area. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out across the higher terrain of the Catskills.
Some rivers could approach bankfull or even minor flood stage.
This is supported by latest river ensemble guidance from the HEFS/NAEFS. If this threat materializes will depend on much rain falls, how much snow can melt out of higher elevations, and frozen versus non frozen ground. There could be some nuisance urban and small stream flooding in low lying areas as well.
The latest WPC Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook placed the entire hydrologic service area within a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. We will continue to carefully monitor trends.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDDH WILLIAM H MORSE STATE,VT | 22 sm | 59 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 28°F | 25°F | 86% | 29.96 |
Wind History from DDH
(wind in knots)Troy
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:24 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:49 PM EST 4.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:20 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:30 PM EST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:24 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:49 PM EST 4.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:20 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:30 PM EST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.2 |
| 1 am |
| 3.9 |
| 2 am |
| 3.1 |
| 3 am |
| 2.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| -0 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 2.9 |
| 11 am |
| 3.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.4 |
Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:41 PM EST 4.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:20 PM EST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:41 PM EST 4.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:20 PM EST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.2 |
| 1 am |
| 3.9 |
| 2 am |
| 3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 3 |
| 11 am |
| 3.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 4 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.5 |
Albany, NY,
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