NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

UPDATE
As of 0715 PM EDT, strong upper-level ridging and surface high pressure remain centered overhead, with mostly clear skies expected overnight. Areas of valley fog are again possible as efficient radiative cooling sees temperatures drop to morning lows in the 50s across the region. Forecast therefore remains on track; see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0340 PM EDT]...A strong upper level ridge at 500 hpa is anchored right over the area. In addition, surface high pressure (around 1028 mb) is located over New England.
These features are expected to remain in place into tonight.

Aside from some flat diurnal cu over the high terrain, skies are fairly clear. The diurnal cumulus will dissipate this evening, allowing for clear skies for the overnight hours for tonight. Even though it's been a warm day, the good radiational cooling setup will allow for temps to fall into the 50s for tonight. As is typical for this time of year, some fog is expected to form in the late night hours for valley areas, especially near bodies of water.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The upper level ridge will continue to remain in place through the short term period with surface high pressure located just of the area off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a coastal low off the Southeast coast will be moving to the northwest and will be heading inland across the Carolinas.

For Monday into Tuesday, it will continue to be dry and mostly clear thanks to the strong subsidence. With the ridging in place and warm temps aloft, it will be continued above normal, with highs into the low to middle 80s for valley areas on both Monday and Tuesday. Some patchy fog may form again in valley areas on Monday night with lows in the 50s.

Some clouds will start to increase on Tuesday night, as some moisture will start to spread northward, as the low pressure area moves inland across the mid Atlantic states. A few showers are possible towards daybreak Wednesday across far southern areas. With the increased clouds and some possible precip, lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The upper level ridge will start to lose its influence over the area for Wednesday and Thursday as the disturbance remains in place over the mid Atlantic States. Although the best forcing and highest moisture will stay off to the south, some showers will be possible for Wednesday into Thursday, especially for areas south of the Mohawk Valley/I-90. Heavy downpours and flooding is not expected, as rainfall rates and amounts will remain on the lower side, and most areas are in need of rainfall after this recent dry stretch. Despite the increased clouds and some precip, it will remain fairly warm with daytime temps in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to low 60s.

The disturbance will be weakening and drifting back southward.
This will allow for the upper level ridge to take back over for the late week into the weekend with dry weather once again.
Temps will be seasonable, with valley highs in the mid 70s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals into tonight beneath largely clear skies, with areas of valley fog developing toward daybreak. Variable vsbys are expected, although persistent IFR/LIFR is most likely at GFL/PSF while vsby restrictions at ALB/POU will more likely be brief and intermittent. Fog may develop as early as 04-06Z Mon at GFL, but may hold off until after 08-10Z Mon at other terminals. Any fog will dissipate after sunrise, by 12-13Z Mon. VFR conditions will then return through the remainder of the period beneath clear skies aside from few-sct high cirrus after 16-20Z Mon.

Calm to light and variable winds at less than 5 kt this evening will give way to largely calm conditions by 03-06Z Mon. Winds will increase again out of the southeast at around 5 kt after 12-15Z Mon, except at GFL where terrain effects will yield light southerly to southwesterly flow.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.