Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilmington, VT

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Today will start out dry as high pressure centered to our south shifts farther to the east. An upper level trough and surface low pressure system will approach from the west this afternoon and bring another round of rain showers to the area. Showers look to begin between 3-6pm for areas north and west of the Capital District and 6-9pm for areas farther south and eastward.
After a cold start, temperatures will top out in the 40s and 50s this afternoon. An increasing pressure gradient with the approaching low will develop a southerly breeze across the area with gusts generally on the order of 25 to 35 mph. Some localized locations could gust near 40 mph.

Showers will continue through the evening, then gradually taper off overnight into Saturday morning as the cold front crosses and upper trough departs. Any lingering showers on Saturday will be mainly focused across the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley though some light showers/sprinkles could also occur across the southern Greens and Berkshires with westerly upslope flow in place. Otherwise, Saturday will feature a mix of clouds and sun and highs in the 40s and 50s. Portions of the mid- Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County could reach the lower 60s.

During Sunday and Monday, a deep upper level trough will develop across the eastern CONUS. An initial surface low will track across the Great Lakes with the potential for a secondary low to develop near or just off the East Coast with both systems tracking northeastward. While the greatest moisture looks to remain near or off the coast, periods of rain will still overspread the region Sunday through Sunday night. Pending on surface temperatures Sunday morning and the arrival time of precipitation, portions of the Adirondacks could start out with snow or a mix before changing over to rain as milder air builds in during the day. Latest NBM mean 24-hour precipitation amounts spanning 7 am Sunday to 7 am Monday is between 0.50 to 1.00 inches across the area. These systems begin to depart the region on Monday as the upper trough slides eastward bringing colder air into the region. As it does so, developing westerly flow over the Great Lakes will develop lake effect rain and/or snow showers by the afternoon hours. Temperatures on Monday will only be in the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Message:

- High confidence for below normal temperatures much of the week, with another round of lake effect snow across the western Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley Mon night into the mid week.

A mid and upper level trough will persist across the eastern CONUS including the Northeast in the early to middle part of next week. The NBM/ensembles/deterministic medium range guidance all show cyclonic flow Mon night into Veterans Day setting up over NY and New England with low pressure moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Lake effect snow bands will set-up downstream of Lakes Ontario and Erie. The better chance of accumulating snowfall will occur over the western Dacks. It will be brisk with perhaps some upslope rain to snow showers over the southern Greens. The valleys could also see a rain to snow shower transition with lows in the 20s to around 30F with a few teens over the Adirondack Park. Veterans Day will be brisk and cold with temps running at least 10 degrees below normal. Some of the valley areas will struggle to get above 40F. Highs will be mainly be in the 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20s over the higher terrain. Additional accumulating lake effect snowfall may occur over the western Dacks and western Mohawk Valley. The latest NBM probabilities of >4" of snow in the 24-hour period ending 00Z/Wed are 40-60% over the western Adirondacks. The lake effect snow may briefly get disrupted Tue night, as the flow flattens/backs or lifts northward ahead of the next disturbance.
Some additional snow accums are possible over the western Dacks and 24-hr probs for Tue-Tue night >6" are 25-40% for northern Herkimer and western Hamilton Counties. Lows will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s.

Another clipper low approaches from southern Ontario by Wed. the short-wave and a cold front will bring more lake effect and upslope rain and snow showers. Temps slightly modify ahead of the short- wave and cold front on Wed with mid and upper 40s in the valleys and 30s to lower 40s over the higher terrain. Probs for snow showers increase to 60-80% for the western Dacks, northern Catskills, western Mohawk Valley and southern Greens Wed night into Thu. Some rain may mix with snow showers Wed night in the lower elevations. Temps finish the extended below normal by 5-10 degrees with brisk conditions on Thu in the wake of the cold front.

AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Thru 12Z Sat...VFR conditions to begin the TAF cycle with high pressure moving further east off the Mid Atlantic Coast. High clouds will increase towards 12-17Z/Fri ahead of a weak sfc trough ahead of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Region. Clouds will thicken and lower through the rest of the late morning into the afternoon with sct-bkn clouds 5-6 kft AGL prior to 21Z/Sat and bkn-ovc mid-level sky cover 10-12 kft AGL.
Some scattered showers will increase ahead of a warm front prior to 00Z/Sat with VCSH groups used. PROB30 groups with potential MVFR cigs/vsbys were used at all the TAF sites between 00Z-06Z/SAT with sct-numerous showers moving in ahead of a warm or occluded front. Some MVFR cigs/vsbys will persist after 06Z/Sat with a chance of IFR cigs are KPOU/KPSF, but have kept MVFR for now.

The winds will increase from the southeast to south at 5-10 KT after sunrise and further increase from the south at 10-15 KT in the late morning into the early to mid pm with some gusts 20-30 KT. The winds will persist into tonight and after 00Z from the south at around 10 KT with some gusts around 20 KT. LLWS will become an issues between 18Z-22Z/Sat at KPSF/KPOU/KGFL, as the 2 kft winds increase to 35-40 KT with the sfc winds around 10 KT
The wind shear expands to KALB towards 00Z/Sat
and have kept LLWS at all the TAF sites after 00Z/Sat with the 2 kft AGL winds 35-45 KT. The LLWS will decrease around midnight with south/southwest continuing at 10 KT or less.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
RA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Veterans Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Chance of SHRA
SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.