Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilmington, VT

KEY MESSAGES
1) After a rainy Friday, windy and colder weather is expected Friday night into Saturday. Gusts could down foliated trees and blow around unsecured outdoor objects. There is also the potential for snow showers in the ADKs Friday night into Saturday morning.

2) Dry weather with seasonable temperatures are expected for the start of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

With the upper level disturbance now to our east, mainly dry conditions are expected through the rest of the afternoon and evening outside of a few isolated showers lingering in the ADKs, however KENX radar shows most have passed to our west already.
Clouds are expected to persist with current GOES satellite imagery showing a continuous layer of stratocumulus covering much of the region. Areas south in the Mid-Hudson Valley could see some breaks in the clouds allowing temperatures to warm up into the mid to upper 70s, while the rest of the region stays cloudy and in the 50s and 60s. Westerly winds will be breezy through the evening, especially channeled down the Mohawk Valley corridor into the Capital Region and Berkshires with gusts near 25 mph. Gradual clearing is expected overnight tonight as a high pressure system begins to build in from Eastern Ontario and the Great Lakes region, tracking overhead by tomorrow morning. With dewpoints dropping into the 30s and 40s, tomorrow will be a dry and pleasant day with highs in the mid 50s (terrain) and low 60s (valleys), along with a light breeze and mostly sunny skies.

A strong upper level trough and associated frontal system will approach from the Great Lakes region tomorrow night into Friday, along with a progressive low pressure developing over the region Friday, tracking off the northern New England coast by Friday night.
This will bring periods of stratiform rain showers starting just before sunrise Friday morning and remaining steady throughout most of Friday as the system's warm front passes through. A brief period of dry weather could occur in the afternoon, but additional scattered showers are expected late afternoon and into the evening as the system's cold front then passes through before tapering off into Saturday morning.

Model and ensemble guidance show PWATs being in the 1 to 1.5" range +1 to 2" STDEV above normal and above the climatological 75th percentile. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2" are expected with the higher totals north of I-90 in the southern ADKs, southern Green mountains, and the Berkshire mountains, and the lower amounts in areas I-90 south. Some elevated instability could even allow for a few thunderstorms to develop Friday morning through afternoon.
Sufficient bulk shear of 60 kt exists across the region, however there is still some uncertainty as to the exact locations of storms since CAMs and long range models show locations of greatest MUCAPE (600 J/kg) in areas south of I-90, and locations of steepest lapse rates (>6.5 C/km) and best synoptic forcing over the southern ADKs and western Mohawk Valley. There is a medium chance for thunderstorms across the region, but the chance for storms to become strong is low at this time. However, with this chance, there is the potential for brief heavy downpours and small hail.
NBM probabilistic guidance has a 60 to 80% chance of exceeding 1.5" and a 30 to 40% chance of exceeding 2" for areas north of I-90 and a 20 to 40% chance of exceeding 1.5" south of I-90.
With these totals falling over a longer duration, this looks to be another beneficial rainfall across much of the region.
Flooding is not expected outside of some ponding of water in the typical places of poor drainage and urban areas. Friday's highs will be in the upper 50s (terrain) and upper 60s to approaching the low 70s (valleys).

Temperatures turn chilly Friday night as the cold front passes through with most of the higher elevations falling below freezing and valleys dropping into the mid 30s by daybreak Saturday. The upper level trough axis will be centered over the region by Saturday morning with 850 hpa temps dropping down to around -8 to -10 C, which is well below normal for mid October. As a result, daytime temps will only be in the 30s across the high terrain on Saturday, with 40s for valley areas. In addition, a strong pressure gradient will result in breezy to gusty conditions, making it feel even colder through the weekend and making for a blustery late fall day.
Steep low level lapse rates seen on forecast soundings amid a strong low level jet could help mix down strong wind gusts on Saturday. Probabilistic guidance has a 30-50% chance for gusts exceeding 40 mph within portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, Berkshires and eastern Catskills late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon which could approach wind advisory range and knock down foliated trees and blow around any unsecured outdoors objects.

Although moisture will be limited behind the cold front, some lake enhanced and upslope precip may occur behind the front, allowing for some snow showers for western, northern and high terrain areas early Saturday morning. While some snowflakes do look likely across the higher terrain this weekend, total amounts look very minor at this time. Also, can not rule out some flurries extending into the eastern Mohawk Valley and Capital Region Saturday morning. After a cold and calmer Saturday night, highs on Sunday will moderate somewhat, but will still be below normal in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Dry weather and more seasonable temperatures are expected for the start of next week as high pressure and a warmer air mass builds across the region. Daytime highs should reach the lower/mid 60s in valley areas with mid/upper 50s for the higher terrain.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18Z Thu...VFR conditions prevail at KGFL/KALB/KPOU with post frontal stratocumulus and mid level clouds, though some instances of high MVFR cigs will continue at KPSF where a TEMPO was included 18Z-20Z/Wed. Stratocumulus will linger tonight mainly in the low VFR range (3.5-5 kft AGL), but we did include some MVFR cigs redeveloping at KGFL/KPSF in the 2.5-3 kft AGL range with some low-level moisture trapped under an inversion.
These cigs should gradually become VFR 8-12Z/Thu with scattered coverage, as high pressure will be ridging in from the north and west from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Ontario. Some cirrus will begin to increase in the late morning Thu.

The winds will increase from the west to northwest this afternoon at 8-15 KT with some gusts 20-25 KT especially at KALB/KPSF. The winds will continue tonight from the northwest to north at around 10 KT tonight with some gusts around 20 KT continuing at KPSF until 06Z-09Z/Thu. The winds will lighten from the north/northeast at 7 KT or less in the late morning with the ridge building in.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 36 kts. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.