Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Myrtle Creek, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 4:39PM Saturday December 7, 2019 10:40 AM PST (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:30PMMoonset 2:39AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 849 Am Pst Sat Dec 7 2019
.hazardous seas warning in effect until 1 pm pst this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm pst this afternoon through this evening...
Today..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. S swell 3 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 10 kt...veering to W late in the evening, then...veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SW swell 6 to 7 ft at 10 seconds. Showers likely.
Sun..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds and nw 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Sun night..N wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft.
Mon..E wind 5 kt...veering to S in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 ft.
Mon night..SW wind 5 kt...backing to S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft.
Tue..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 to 4 ft. W swell 8 ft.
Wed..SE wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to S 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning...becoming 2 ft or less, then...becoming 3 ft. W swell 9 ft.
PZZ300 848 Am Pst Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Weak low pressure will move onshore south of the waters this afternoon. Winds and seas will begin to subside this afternoon, but are likely to remain hazardous to small craft through this evening. Relatively calm winds and seas return Sunday into Monday, although north winds will be breezy. The next front is likely to arrive Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Creek, OR
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location: 43.05, -123.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 071738 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 938 AM PST Sat Dec 7 2019

UPDATE. The next round of heavier precipitation is moving into the region. With the low approaching the coast the gradient is becoming more aligned to an east west gradient and the winds should remain below advisory. Will be canceling the wind advisory in the Shasta Valley shortly. Over the east side 700 mb winds are still indicating wind advisory gusts, mostly over higher elevations. Update to forecast will be issued shortly. Sven

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 509 AM PST Sat Dec 7 2019/

DISCUSSION . 2AM RADAR is showing some showers moving northward across southern Oregon and northern California. Some of the precipitation is becoming moderate, especially around Mt. Shasta and to the north. Overall, this trend will continue today as this is the second push from the low pressure system centered off the coast. Satellite imagery is showing some high topped convection, especially along the coast and offshore of Del Norte County. A few lightning strikes have been reported offshore of northern California, and they could continue to move northward into Curry County later this morning.

Meanwhile, moderate to heavy snow will continue to fall above 5500 feet in southern Siskiyou County. Moderate snowfall will continue to fall across portions of Lake and Modoc Counties (mainly across the Warner Mountains). A winter storm warning and a winter weather advisory remain in effect, respectively, for these areas. More information can be found in the WSWMFR. Additionally, some snow is falling near the junction of Highway 97 and 138 south of Chemult. Air temperatures are still above freezing for now, so snow impacts seem minimal at this point.

Furthermore, breezy winds will continue to be possible for the southern half of the Shasta Valley including Weed through this afternoon and for areas of Lake County through this evening. Wind advisories remain in effect for these places. More information can be found in the NPWMFr.

Otherwise, the main story will be moderate rainfall at the southern Oregon coast and coast range today. So far, we have had no reports of flooding; and don't anticipate any flooding today despite prolonged moderate rainfall.

The area of low pressure responsible for our active weather will move ashore this afternoon and continue moving eastward tonight into tomorrow. This will really transition things into a more showery pattern with breaks in between precipitation this evening and tonight. Conditions begin to really dry out Sunday, and the clear skies will allow temperatures to be lower for Monday morning. We're not expecting temperatures to fall to their fullest potential because the extra moisture provided by this precipitation will allow for valley fog across most of southern Oregon and northern California--which will help keep temperatures somewhat warmer as the overall ridge sets up the inversion once again.

This ridge pattern should linger through midweek before a week front comes ashore bringing some light precipitation to southern Oregon and northern California. At this point, it largely looks like the precipitation will be confined to areas west of the Coast Range. Then after a brief break, another stronger low and frontal system appears poised to come ashore across southern Oregon and northern California yet again. This system seems like it could be a repeat of the current system with high snow levels (around 6000 feet and above) possibly dropping to around 4000 feet by Saturday night as things become more showery in nature. Have gone with the National Blend of Models in this forecast as the ensembles are showing general agreement at this point.

Please stay tuned to the extended forecast because the details are sure to change--and the snow levels appear like they could create more impacts this go around, particularly toward the end of the storm next weekend. -Schaaf

AVIATION . For the 07/12Z TAFs . Low pressure will continue to send waves of precipitation across the area today through Sunday morning, heaviest in the Mount Shasta area. Expect IFR conditions to continue there through the TAF period. Elsewhere, areas of LIFR fog formed between breaks in the precipitation overnight, and this is likely to continue to affect the Illinois Valley, portions of the mid-lower Rogue valley, and the Umpqua Basin through about noon PST. A mix of IFR and MVFR is expected for most locations through the TAF period, though some areas such as KOTH and KMFR could see a period of VFR this afternoon between the waves of precipitation. Be advised that some wind shear remains possible, primarily this morning, along and near the coast, to include KOTH. BTL

MARINE . Updated 300 AM PST Saturday, 7 December 2019 . Another wave of low pressure moving northward early this morning will bring one more surge of southerly winds north to the Cape Blanco area as very steep hazardous sea conditions continue. Winds will weaken this afternoon and seas will begin to subside, but seas are likely to remain hazardous to small craft through the evening. Relatively calm winds and seas return Sunday into Monday, although north winds will be breezy. A weakening front is likely to move through Tuesday. A stronger front is then expected to move in on or about Thursday. Long period west-northwest swell on the order of 17 feet by 17 seconds is currently projected to arrive Thursday, Dec 12th. BTL

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening above 5500 feet in the for ORZ031. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ031.

CA . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening above 5500 feet in the for CAZ085. Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon above 5500 feet in the for CAZ082-083.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

SBN/SBN/SBN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 57 mi64 min S 2.9 G 9.9 50°F1006.2 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR13 mi47 minN 010.00 miOvercast48°F46°F93%1007.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRBG

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3W3CalmNE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW4SW3SW3NE4CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon (2)
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Charleston
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:01 AM PST     2.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:43 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:35 AM PST     7.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:34 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:21 PM PST     1.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:23 PM PST     5.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.52.32.53.34.45.66.77.37.46.85.84.43.12.11.61.72.33.34.35.25.65.65

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:02 AM PST     2.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:43 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:34 AM PST     7.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:34 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:17 PM PST     1.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM PST     5.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.72.42.63.44.45.66.67.37.36.75.74.43.22.21.71.82.53.44.55.35.75.65.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.