Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Haven, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 5:11PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 3:50 AM EST (08:50 UTC) Moonrise 5:02PMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 208 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Early this morning..West winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Light freezing spray. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Today..West winds to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Light freezing spray. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots backing south toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds to 30 knots veering south gales to 35 knots late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 6 to 8 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201912112115;;177497 FZUS53 KGRR 110708 AAA NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast...UPDATED National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 208 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-112115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Haven, MI
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location: 43.05, -86.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 110821 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 321 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 320 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

* Cold and windy today; Wind chills between -10 and 10 all day

* Light snow showers and slick spots this morning, especially near and west of US-131; accumulations less than one inch

* Light snow possible from Big Rapids northward Thursday and Thursday evening

* Warmer temperatures Thursday and Friday

* Light rain changing to snow Saturday

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 320 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Upper trough swinging through Michigan will continue to bring a good coverage of (light) snow showers to the area this morning. A lot of the activity will be due to lake enhancement, with steep lake to H850 (near inversion height) lapse rates and favorable westerly winds. We could also see a seeder-feeder contribution this morning from a mid-level deck advancing in from Wisconsin. Forecast model soundings keep an inversion in place between 4000-5000 feet however, which will limit convective cloud depth and shower intensity, and keep accumulations light. Even so, any coating of snow on the roads could make them slick, especially as temperatures in the teens make them harder to treat. Through the morning commute and the late morning, expect best coverage of snow accumulations (an inch or less) to be near and west of US-131 and extending into Kalamazoo. Gusty winds will also accompany the trough and weak cold frontal passage, with winds gusting 25 to 30 mph, perhaps slightly higher near Lake Michigan. Conditions will improve by the latter half of the day as high pressure building to our west causes inversion heights over the lake to crash. Expect only a few showers to linger after noon. By the evening commute, nearly all places will be dry (maybe just a few light snow showers near the lakeshore) and winds will have calmed considerably as the ridge builds in. Cold temperatures will be the other story for the day, with temperatures starting the day in the teens, then only peaking in the teens and low 20s. The combined effect of the cold air and brisk winds will be wind chills between -10 and 10 all day, including the morning commute and wait for the school bus. This still puts frostbite time for exposed skin at over 30 minutes.

Surface high sliding in from the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley will then bring quiet weather this evening through Thursday morning. Increasing clouds and winds ahead of the next system will prevent temperatures from dropping too low overnight, with lows forecast to stay in the teens most places and single digits near US 10.

Weak upper wave and surface low passing through Central Michigan Thursday into Thursday evening will be the next feature to watch. Travel impacts from this system look limited, with snow accumulations around an inch or less near/north of Big Rapids. More noticeable to most will be warmer air drawn up into the area. Temperatures will be able to rebound into the 30s Thursday, and into the mid 30s to low 40s on Friday.

Still quite a bit of spread within Euro/GFS ensemble members with where to center surface pressure falls over the Great Lakes/East Coast by Saturday morning/afternoon, and whether it will be more of a singular low pressure system over the East Coast or have a more double-barreled look with a second closed low over the Great Lakes. Preference is for most of the pressure falls to be towards the coast, but will still see rain in West Michigan change over to snow Saturday, with a brief period of lake-effect snow following Saturday night into Sunday. Assuming only a weak low or trough passing over the Great Lakes, we should only see light accumulations once again.

Finally, pattern setting up for early next week bears watching as chunk of energy dives south out of Northern Canada as a strong Pacific jets pushes into North America. A number of GFS/Euro ensemble members spin an area of low pressure up over the eastern part of the U.S. by Tuesday, and some solutions spread rain and snow into the Great Lakes.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1233 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Upper trough passing through the area late tonight early this morning will bring an uptick to lake-effect activity and drop ceilings back to MVFR at West Michigan TAF sites between 07Z and 10Z. Not expecting much in the way of accumulations, and snow showers will be most plentiful at western sites of MKG, GRR, AZO. Cannot rule out occasional drops to 3-5sm visibility in SHSN, but expect conditions to remain MVFR even in most showers. West winds will also pick up early this morning, with gusts generally between 24 and 30 knots through late afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 320 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Strong west winds will generate large waves in the 4 to 7 foot range today. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect until this evening. Cold temperatures, strong winds, and large waves will also generate areas of freezing spray today. High pressure will bring a brief break in rough conditions along the lakeshore tonight and Thursday morning before the next system starts to impact the area. Strong south to southwest winds Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night will bring a resurgence in large waves once again. Waves will be largest near an north of Holland, where they will reach 6 to 10 feet. Another round of large waves is expected Saturday night into Sunday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . HLO DISCUSSION . HLO AVIATION . HLO MARINE . HLO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 12 mi41 min WNW 19 G 23 22°F 1025 hPa13°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 21 mi57 min WSW 16 G 23 23°F 37°F1022.8 hPa15°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 45 mi51 min WSW 23 G 26 22°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 62 mi57 min W 15 G 20 17°F 8°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G12
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI10 mi56 minSW 14 G 1910.00 miOvercast22°F10°F60%1023.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14
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1 day agoSE4SE6SE7SE6SE7S13
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2 days agoS17
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S12SW6W4CalmCalmSE4SE5SE4E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.