Sunday, April5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Haven, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday April 5, 2020 3:45 PM EDT (19:45 UTC) Moonrise 4:20PMMoonset 5:23AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1105 Am Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds around 10 knots veering south. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots veering south. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northwest winds around 15 knots backing west late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:202004052100;;612713 FZUS53 KGRR 051506 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-052100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Haven, MI
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location: 43.05, -86.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 051901 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 301 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

- Increasing clouds Monday, rain late

- Storms possible Tuesday evening

- Strong cold front Wednesday night, windy Thursday

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

-- Increasing clouds Monday, rain late --

High clouds will increase on Monday, but temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than Sunday and several degrees warmer than normal. The arrival of moisture below 10,000 feet should wait until Monday evening once southwesterly flow increases to 20-30 kt on the backside of the high. Showers will likely develop by late evening in southwest Michigan on the nose of this moisture advection. Can't rule out an occasional lightning flash overnight, but the greater instability will be in Illinois/Indiana.

-- Storms possible Tuesday evening --

GFS, ECMWF, and NAM are bringing a conditional threat of severe storms Tuesday evening. A weak 500 mb shortwave / speed max and 1000 mb surface low are expected to approach from Minnesota- Wisconsin during the day, while southwesterly low-level flow transports milder, relatively moist air into the region. High temperatures may climb well into the 60s while dewpoints reach the 50s. An EML advecting over Lower Michigan from the central high plains with 700- 500 mb lapse rates of 8 K/km would support capped instability approaching 1000 J/kg in the late afternoon. If storms were to develop with the impetus of the mid-level wave and surface low, environmental 0-3 km shear over 30 kt and 0-6 km shear around 50 kt would be adequate for organization including bow segments.

Here are the caveats and open questions that would limit severe weather potential: Will Monday night's convection tend to backbuild farther west/southwest into Illinois and persist longer than models simulate? This is a typical bias with nocturnal low- level jet setups, resulting in an effective warm front much farther south than expected, and an eroded EML downstream, not to mention clouds. Are models overestimating low-level moisture return? They typically have a high dewpoint bias in our region in early spring. Drier air would decrease instability and increase convective inhibition. Finally of note, a smattering of model solutions are less aggressive with surface low development and have more veered/WSW surface winds rather than backed/SSW.

-- Strong cold front Wednesday night, windy Thursday --

The polar jet is expected to dig southward into the northern Plains and Great Lakes and develop a strong surface low in northern Ontario Wednesday night. 850 temperatures will plunge from about +5C to -5C in 12 hours with the cold front, swinging us back to colder-than-normal weather on Thursday and Friday. Some light showers are also expected with the front Wednesday evening/overnight. The pressure gradient will be fairly strong on Thursday, between the 980 mb low in Quebec and the 1020 mb high in North Dakota. GFS is showing us deeply mixed from the surface to 9,000 feet on Thursday, with enough moisture for shower development due to daytime heating. Wind gusts over 40 mph are likely during the day.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

VFR prevailing conditions are expected as the only clouds through 18Z Monday will be fairly high-altitude. With dry low-level air tonight, the chance of fog looks pretty low, but some shallow/ground fog is possible at airfields with calm winds. A lake breeze around MKG (and other airports near Lake Michigan) this afternoon will shift winds from northeast to northwest, but overall the winds will be pretty light everywhere. Winds will generally go from north/northeast today to southeast/south on Monday.

MARINE. Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Fairly quiet conditions in the short term with north winds tonight becoming more from the south/southeast Monday. Hazards from lightning are possible over southern Lake Michigan Monday evening/night, and another chance of thunderstorms exists over Lake Michigan Tuesday afternoon/evening. Winds and waves will be hazardous to small craft Wednesday night into Friday, with gusts reaching gale force possible on Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

River levels continue to drop with the Grand River at Ionia and the Maple River at Maple Rapids still at bankfull. River levels will continue to recede into tomorrow afternoon as dry conditions persist. We expect to see some additional periodic chances for rainfall Monday night through Wednesday night, however the treat for flooding remains low.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . CAS DISCUSSION . CAS AVIATION . CAS HYDROLOGY . Thielke MARINE . CAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 11 mi16 min NW 12 G 14 37°F 39°F1 ft1023.6 hPa30°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 12 mi26 min NNW 15 G 17 40°F 1024 hPa33°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 21 mi52 min NNW 14 G 15 38°F 44°F1021.8 hPa33°F
45168 45 mi16 min NW 14 G 14 37°F 41°F2 ft1023.4 hPa30°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 45 mi36 min NW 13 G 15 38°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 62 mi52 min WNW 8.9 G 13 38°F 29°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI10 mi51 minW 1010.00 miFair47°F28°F50%1023.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10NW9N11N10N7N4N8N5NE4N4N3N4N5N6N5N5N6N6N96NE6NE8NE5W10
1 day agoSW5W3SW5SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE5SE7SE7E7W6CalmW7NW6NW8
G15
NW7NW11NW10NW11NW11N11
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2 days agoW8W9--W8----N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E6E8E5SE5SW8SW5W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.