NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IR satellite imagery and surface observations showing clear skies across the region early this morning, with areas of fog developing from the Southern Tier river valleys east across the Finger Lakes to areas east/southeast of Lake Ontario. The fog will continue through mid morning before burning off.

Surface high pressure centered over eastern Quebec will remain in place today, with a weaker ridge surface and aloft extending back across the eastern Great Lakes. This will provide another dry and warm day with mostly sunny skies outside of some modest increase in high clouds from west to east, and a few diurnal cumulus along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries. Highs will be similar to yesterday, with lower 80s for the lower elevations and mid to upper 70s for higher terrain and the immediate lakeshores.

Tonight, weak surface high pressure will remain in place across the eastern Great Lakes. A mid level trough over the upper Great Lakes will advance ESE overnight, with height falls and DPVA starting to spread into southern Ontario just upstream of Western NY. This will bring an increasing and lowering mid level cloud deck overnight, but showers should remain west of the area until around or just after daybreak Saturday. The increase in clouds and an uptick in southerly flow should keep fog formation to a minimum.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Heading into Saturday, a broad mid-level trough will lie across much of the western two-thirds of the CONUS, while a ridge continues to lie across the Northeast. With the aforementioned trough, a shortwave trough will be in the midst pivoting northeast across the western and central Great Lakes. With this the surface ridge in place across the Northeast throughout much of the week will weaken some Saturday and allow for some precipitation and afternoon thunderstorms to drop southeast across western New York. While it doesn't look like a complete wash out, expect a few hundredths across the Niagara Frontier with the best location for rain across the southern Tier with a little over a tenth of an inch possible.

Surface high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will then drop southeast across the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes Sunday, supporting one more day of dry weather.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The pattern becomes more amplified next week with the eastern Great Lakes region under southwest flow between a trough centered across the Upper Mid-West and a ridge over New England. Unsettled weather is possible as moisture increases across the forecast area.

The upper level ridge axis will shift eastward while a shortwave trough moves across the Upper Mid-West region Monday. There is low confidence in the place of low pressure ahead of the trough, however a southwest flow will likely increase moisture across the region Monday into Monday night. Shower chances increase from west to east by late Monday across western NY and across the entire region Monday night. Details become fuzzy Tuesday and on as certainty lowers with the evolution of another shortwave trough and the duration of a dry slot between systems. Looking at the ensemble means of the large scale pattern, the main trough should stay to the west of the forecast area, opening the door to increasing moisture and other organized systems moving from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes region. Low to medium chances for showers continue Tuesday through Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible if favorable conditions come together.

Temperatures remain slightly above normal next week with highs averaging in the low 70s across the lake plains to the upper 60s across the higher terrain.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Clear skies and light winds will promote an expansion of fog through the early morning hours, with areas of MVFR/IFR. The fog will be most prevalent from the river valleys of the Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes to points southeast of Lake Ontario. KJHW, KART, and KROC all may see a few hours of IFR in fog around daybreak, although confidence is not particularly high for any of those airfields.

The fog will burn off by 14Z, leaving VFR to prevail for the rest of the day with just a modest increase in high clouds from west to east, and a few diurnal cumulus along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries. Dry weather and VFR will continue to prevail tonight with mid level clouds increasing and lowering from west to east. The increase in clouds and increasing southerly winds should keep fog formation to a minimum.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms, especially across Western NY.
Sunday...VFR, except for patchy early morning fog with local IFR across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
High pressure will remain over eastern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes through the weekend. The pressure gradient to the west of this high will start to increase east to northeast winds on Lake Ontario today with a light chop, and moreso over the weekend with a moderate chop developing. Winds will generally be lighter on Lake Erie through the weekend.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.