Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmyra, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
First wave of rain starting to lift into far southwest New York early this morning, as occluding low pressure moves into the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. This rainfall is encroaching on a drier airmass left behind by exiting high pressure.
Soundings show the moistening of profiles across western New York fairly quickly this morning, so expect that rain will continue to advance northeast through the morning with a widespread coverage of rain across western New York south of the Thursday by mid morning. Widespread rain reaching Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes by lunch time, then into the eastern Lake Ontario by mid to late afternoon. The steady rain will likely produce amounts of a half to one inch south of the Thruway, with lesser amount of a quarter inch or less farther to the northeast.

A widespread coverage of rain will continue tonight as the upstream low meanders across the eastern Great Lakes. Rainfall amounts generally in the quarter to half inch range.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Expect cool dreary weather for the later half of the week due to a deep broad upper level trough centered across the Great Lakes Thursday morning will support a couple of closed lows to rotate across the eastern Great Lakes and New England through Friday night.
At the surface a closed low over Lake Erie Thursday will gradually shift east through Thursday night before merging with a deep coastal low off of the New England coast Friday. All of this being said, a pool of moisture will remain across the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night supporting widespread rain. Then Friday, as a lobe of DPVA moves south out of Canada and meets the pool of moisture, supporting widespread rain to continue across the region.
Considering the dreary couple of days, rainfall amounts will average between a quarter to a half of an inch across the region.

Temperatures Thursday and Friday will average below normal for mid to late May. Highs will be a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal with highs in the mid to upper 50s both Thursday and Friday. Lows will also be below normal but only a few to 5 degrees below normal ranging in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Broad upper level troughing will persist across the Northeast through the weekend. Moist, cyclonic flow will support chances for showers, especially during the afternoon and early evening (due to peak heating and diurnal effects). The trough will begin to flatten out Sunday night through Monday, causing moisture to be stripped away from the area, and therefore resulting in mostly dry weather Monday.

Looking further ahead, another closed low will likely shift into the Ohio Valley Tuesday and into mid next week supporting another bout of unsettled weather.

Overall, cool air will continue to rotate across the area supporting below normal temperatures this weekend and into next week.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure slowly tracking across the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley today. The low level environment will steady saturate this morning across western New York and then across central New York by this afternoon, supporting an increase in coverage of stratus featuring a cloud base at low MVFR to IFR.
This will occur within an expanding area of rain. Some gustiness to the east/southeast wind up to 20 knots likely at all terminals through this afternoon. An isolated rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out across the Southern Tier, including KJHW this afternoon, but confidence is this occuring at the airfield is low.

Outlook...

Tonight...IFR to LIFR with periods of rain. A low chance of a thunderstorm across the Southern Tier early.

Thursday through Saturday.. MVFR to IFR with showers.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

MARINE
A low pressure system moving into the eastern Great Lakes from the Ohio Valley will move slowly eastward through Friday. This will cause easterly winds to slowly strengthen today. The highest wave action will stay mainly offshore through tonight night, but Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected along the western shoreline of Lake Ontario through tonight with choppy conditions on Lake Erie south of Sturgeon Point.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042.