Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:35PM Monday July 6, 2020 9:08 PM CDT (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 6:34AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 708 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 6 2020
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest early in the morning. Patchy fog after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing south early in the afternoon, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of Thunderstorms and slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south late in the evening, then becoming southwest after midnight veering west early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northeast wind 5 knots becoming southeast late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ644 Expires:202007070400;;435178 FZUS53 KMKX 070009 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 708 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-070400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI
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location: 43.06, -87.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 070041 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 741 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

UPDATE. New showers and tstorm development is occurring over a narrow line of cumulus congestus over Iowa and Lafayette Counties. This should remain fairly limited although any outflow boundary could trigger more convection. The better chances for tstorms this evening into the overnight will be from the outflow boundaries associated with the convection over central WI. A weak vorticity maximum is providing some upper support for this convection. During the early morning hours the PoP forecast gradually lowers but will maintain at least slight chance PoPs for much of the area as weakly capped elevated CAPE will remain present. For Tue, another hot day with sct tstorms expected from any remnant outflow boundaries or the lake breeze. A MCV or vorticity maximum will move across SD tnt and dive sewd into ern IA/wrn IL for Tue aft- eve. This will aid any tstorm development south and west of Madison or possibly over more of the area if it tracks farther north.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS). VFR Conditions will prevail tnt-Tue but there are chances for showers and tstorms which could temporarily limit vsbys and cigs. The mostly likely area for showers and tstorms this evening into the overnight will be north and west of KMSN.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 333 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Tuesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and gradually taper off this evening as we approach sunset. Best areas for additional storms to develop will be off of outflow boundaries and along the lake breeze. With around 2000 J/kg of CAPE and dry air in the lower levels, there could be some stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail. Brief heavy downpours will also be possible with any thunderstorm.

Tonight there is a shortwave moving through that may bring another round of showers and thunderstorms for areas north of a Madison to Milwaukee line. The frontal boundary is expected to weaken as it shifts southward and the main lift source of lift remains to the north. We'll have to watch tonight to see if any convective activity makes it into the forecast area as it could have an impact on the storms expected for Tuesday afternoon. If we clear out or remain clear, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the 500mb positive vorticity wave. Soundings look similar to today, so can't rule out some stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail.

The heat will continue with lows overnight briefly dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s with highs Tuesday in the upper 80s to low 90s. Dew points will continue to be in the upper 60s to low 70s resulting heat indices in the low 90s across the area.

LONG TERM .

Tuesday Night Through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

This period will begin with lingering storms and showers with perhaps a few being strong. We should remain in and around the warm front with this system to the west overnight. A few models suggest storms/showers may continue through the night along the warm front but with the low to mid levels remaining mostly dry, thus it may be difficult to continue to see storms continue through the overnight period.

Into Wednesday the warm front lifts north and this will likely keep us mostly dry through the day given lack of sufficient forcing but some pop-up thunderstorms certainly can't be ruled out especially with any outflow boundaries/lake breeze potentially firing some thunderstorms given plenty of instability and low level moisture.

Thursday through Monday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Thursday will likely become more active given a cold front from the system to the north pushing in with plenty of upper level support from a strong shortwave with decent low to midlevel moisture. This would bring potential for thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin with some potential for some stronger storms. Thursday will likely be our best chance for strong to severe storms this week.

After the front pulls through the region higher pressure will fill in behind. Models suggest this should keep weather fairly quiet other than afternoon pop-up thunderstorm/shower chances. Models do seem to suggest more uncertainty after Thursday but generally it look like quieter weather with slightly cooler temperatures Friday through the weekend and then warming up into next week as the ridge looks to build back into the region.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) .

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue through 00Z then taper off. Gustier winds will be possible with outflow boundaries moving through, and may cause the wind direction to rapidly shift. The best chance for thunderstorms to develop will be off of these outflow boundaries and along the lake breeze east of I-41. Expect VFR conditions to briefly drop to lower categories within storms.

Otherwise light southwesterly winds will continue with another round of showers and storms possible late tonight into Tuesday morning mainly for areas north of a Madison to Milwaukee line. Most of the area could remain dry as these showers and storms will be weakening as they move into the area.

MARINE .

Isolated thunderstorms remain possible for the nearshore waters this afternoon. A few storms could be on the stronger side with gusts around 30 knots. Quiet conditions return this evening but another round of showers and storms will be possible late tonight into Tuesday morning for northern and central portions of Lake Michigan. Winds will shift to the west for the northern half of the lake tonight before shifting to the south by Tuesday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday afternoon but weaken as they move into the open waters. Quiet conditions then move in for Wednesday as high pressure settles in.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Gehring Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine . RAH Tuesday Night through Monday . ARK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 6 mi29 min SE 8 G 8.9 76°F
45013 7 mi39 min SE 9.7 G 12 77°F 74°F1 ft1014.4 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 23 mi29 min S 1.9 G 4.1 77°F 1014.9 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 34 mi69 min S 7 G 12 80°F 1013.5 hPa (-0.7)
45187 41 mi29 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 77°F 75°F1 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI6 mi84 minESE 310.00 miA Few Clouds82°F60°F48%1014.6 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI8 mi77 minE 710.00 miA Few Clouds81°F66°F62%1013.4 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi84 minESE 510.00 miA Few Clouds81°F66°F62%1014.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI22 mi76 minS 610.00 miFair84°F63°F49%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC≥os=east/gl

Wind History from (wind in knots)oops, file error: weather/buffer/KMWC≥os=east/glairportwind
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.