Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brookfield, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Today through Monday night:

Shower and storm activity remain primarily west of the CWA early this morning with a few isolated showers sneaking into the CWA
This is primarily due to some weak frontal convergence, some modest 850mb WAA and some shortwave activity aloft all in the presence of decent low to mid level moisture. However the forcing remains primarily west of Madison as does the associated low to mid level moisture. The shortwave will nudge east through the day allowing for at least some shower development later this morning into the early afternoon. There definitely remain some uncertainties with how the shortwave will affect the area as it pushes further east but CAMs largely keep areas east of Madison dry through the day. This is likely due in part to the better moisture further west as well as the relatively weak forcing overall. I cannot rule out showers further east due to the progression of the shortwave but with limited support of precip east of Madison I kept chances from 15-40% west of Madison this morning into the early afternoon with chances gradually backing off later into the after and evening.

Uncertainty grows overnight with additional shower/weak storms chances late overnight into Monday morning but again focused further west and north as of right now. Model models keep the area largely dry likely due to drying low to mid level air. Into Monday afternoon and evening WAA and a more prominent shortwave aloft with much more moisture will swing through northern WI.
Most of the associated activity with this system will likely stay further north. While we cannot rule out more prominent activity further south the drier air continues to be one of the prevailing factors keeping southern WI on the drier side of things for the most part. Monday looks likely to reach the low to mid 80s across most of southern WI with slightly cooler conditions near the lake. Expect an afternoon lake breeze however given the lighter wind conditons.

Kuroski

LONG TERM
Issued 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Tuesday through Saturday:

Southwesterly flow at the surface continues the warming trend into Tuesday, with a SW to NE oriented cold front approaching from northern WI (arrival timeline is highly uncertain, best guess is in the mid to late afternoon). Both the ECMWF and the GFS place 70 degree dewpoints ahead of the front, with the NAM and GFS briefly exceeding that (low 70s) for the early to mid afternoon.
Both the cold front and a passing 500mb trough and vorticity maximum may provide lift to support showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, with the highest chances in the afternoon (both due to diurnal destabilization and the best- guess arrival of the front and upper-air features). That said, forecast soundings do place a modest capping inversion overhead Tuesday, and showers / storms may fail to initiate overhead (as seen on the 12z ECMWF QPF output, which leaves us dry).

Predictability plummets even lower Wednesday and onwards. Some GEFS and EPS members that fail to convect on Tuesday leverage the lingering steamy airmass and upper air support / wind shear to fuel thunderstorms on Wednesday, while other members that support Tuesday convection treat Wednesday as more of a lull in the activity.

Ensembles continue to show some warm air advection on south to southwest winds later in the week, bringing very warm and humid conditions into the area by Saturday.

Sheppard

AVIATION
Issued 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light east to southeast winds expected today. A few showers have made it into southern WI but should remain light with limited thunder risk. Otherwise, dry weather and VFR through the early morning.

A 15-40% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in southwestern WI later this morning into the afternoon, mainly west of Madison with decreasing chances later into the afternoon and evening. VFR scattered to broken CIGS expected today, with the shower/storm activity to the west forming VFR CIGS generally over 4,500 ft (though some brief periods of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out.

Kuroski

MARINE
Issued 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

High pressure in primarily Ontario will keep winds northeasterly most of the day today but the high is expected to settle in over the northern Great Lakes region bringing a bit more of a light northerly wind direction. Weak low pressure in the Ohio River Valley will weaken to almost nothing today. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast at times Monday through the middle of the week, as the high pressure system weakens and low pressure approaches the region from the Central Plains.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.