Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 11:29 PM   Moonset 6:51 AM

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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1026 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
This afternoon - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 270701 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 301 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will push across areas south of Lake Ontario Saturday and the North Country Saturday night...and in the process will bring our region some showers
Following its passage
late spring to summerlike warmth will then overspread our region for both Sunday and Monday... before a passing cold front brings our next opportunity for more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Weakening low pressure will lift across Minnesota overnight...while slowly pushing its attendant warm front in our direction. This boundary will only make slow eastward progress as it rams up against the sharp upper ridge in place across our region...with its mainly light and poorly organized shower activity at present likely struggling to make it much past Chautauqua county by daybreak.
Otherwise our area will just see a general west to east increase in mid and high cloud cover...along with notably milder temperatures than the past couple night as a southeasterly to southerly return flow of milder air strengthens across our region. Many locations have already reached their lows for the night...with temps likely to be mostly steady or slowly rising through the 40s across the eastern half of the area...and in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the western half. It will be mildest right along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties...where the downslope flow will be strongest (with gusts to 35-40 mph) and where readings will thus mostly hover in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

On Saturday the cutter-type low over Minnesota will continue to weaken as it lifts across Lake Superior and into central Ontario Province...with its trailing warm front also weakening as it pushes across western New York and becomes further displaced from its parent/encounters continued resistance from upper level ridging aloft
Consequently
the numerous light to modest showers attendant to the front will tend to become weaker and more scattered as the boundary pushes across western New York...and have continued to reflect this in the forecast with a general west-east decrease in PoPs along the boundary as it makes its way eastward. Given the current lack of any lightning upstream and the absence of any instability amongst the bulk of the guidance...have pulled any slight chance of thunder from the forecast today as the potential for this appears rather minuscule.

With respect to high temperatures Saturday...these will be coolest from the interior southern Tier across the Finger Lakes with the front and showers/thickest cloud cover expected to cross these areas during peak heating...resulting in highs there remaining confined to the mid 50s to lower 60s
Further east across the North Country
the later arrival of the thicker clouds and showers and downsloping will allow highs there to reach into the lower to mid 60s. The warmest overall readings are most likely to be found across far western New York...where the clouds and showers should tend to thin out at least somewhat as the warm sector starts to become established later on in the day...and where the combined effects of downsloping and a warmer airmass should help to boost readings higher than what is currently suggested by the vast majority of the guidance. While the temperature forecast across far WNY has some significant forecast bust potential (in both directions...as it could turn out notably cooler if the clouds/showers hang on longer than expected...or notably warmer if we get any sun given the warmth of the incoming airmass)...at this point still expect highs to reach the mid-upper 60s across Niagara County and the lower elevations of Erie County... and the lower 70s along the Lake Erie shoreline of Chautauqua county.

Moving on into Saturday night...the warm frontal boundary will continue to weaken and eventually lose its identity as it crosses the North Country...with any showers along it continuing to generally weaken and become more scattered over time. Meanwhile further west the warm sector will continue to establish itself across the remainder of the region. While much of the guidance tries to redevelop some additional showers across western New York overnight...feel that is is overdone given the apparent lack of a significant trigger for additional convection. While a few more widely separated showers cannot be ruled out given the broad/weak warm advection regime that will be in place aloft...feel that these are currently not worth much more than some slight chance PoPs...and have thus continued to undercut guidance values
Otherwise
the very mild incoming airmass and a continued decent south to south- southwesterly breeze will result in low temperatures more typical of late May or June...with mins expected to range from around 50 across the North Country to near 60 along the Lake Erie shoreline.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A weak warm front will carry northward to start this period, with showers and a few thunderstorms over the eastern end of Lake Ontario and points eastward.

Aloft a mid level ridge will begin to build over our region Sunday - Monday. At the surface Sunday a frontal boundary will lie to our west and north Sunday...to be pushed southward Monday as a shortwave well to the north near James Bay crests the mid level ridge.
Marginal instability may allow for a few showers or thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Tough to time and place such storms, but daytime period will be favored with the building instability.

Under this ridge warm air advection aloft will promote temperatures above normal for Sunday in the low to mid 70s. For Monday, with southwesterly flow and 850 hPa temperatures 12-13C, widespread upper 70s and lower 80s air temperatures, and even mid 80s in the Genesee Valley are expected. This southwest flow will keep downtown Buffalo a bit cooler. Also depending upon how far southward the front sags Monday across the southern and eastern waters of Lake Ontario, a possible northerly component to the wind may keep the south- southeast shoreline along the Lake a bit cooler.

Monday night a cold front will edge its way closer to our region.
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will become likely later in the night across WNY. Also a few showers are likely east of Lake Ontario as a stalled frontal boundary is forced northward ahead of the next system. Will side towards the warmer temperature solutions of guidance for Monday night with a steady southerly flow and increasing cloud cover.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
An anomalously strong ridge over Northeast will move off the east coast by Tuesday, and based on multiple ensemble systems there is medium to high confidence that zonal flow will set-up across the Great Lakes region through mid-week. Confidence lessens towards the end of the work week with consensus showing a subtle trough over the Northeast, however some ensemble members show the potential for a ridge to build into the region.

For more sensible details, a cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday. There is good agreement that the front will move through during daylight hours which increases the probability (55-75%) for showers and thunderstorms across a portion of the forecast region. Surface high pressure will move into the region Wednesday and result in mostly dry weather, however there is a low (20-30%) chance for showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Another cold front may approach the region Thursday and Friday.
Surface high pressure may linger into Thursday, however the forecast will maintain a higher chance (30-40%) as moisture increases ahead of the cold front. The cold front may move into the region Friday which will continue the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the work week.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overnight...expect continued VFR conditions with only a general west- to-east increase in mid and high cloud cover out ahead of a slowly approaching warm front.

On Saturday...weakening low pressure over Minnesota will lift northeastward to central Ontario...while pushing the warm frontal boundary east across western New York. The warm front will bring thickening/lowering clouds and a period of fairly numerous showers from west to east through the course of the day...though the front and showers should both tend to weaken with increasing eastward extent. Expect ceilings to lower to the IFR to MVFR ranges across the higher terrain and to the lower VFR range across the lower elevations...where a stiffening southerly downslope flow will tend to keep cloud bases somewhat higher than indicated by guidance. The strengthening southerly flow will also help generate some wind gusts of 30-35 knots at times...with these greatest across and immediately downwind of our higher terrain.

Saturday night the warm front and its showers will continue to weaken while traversing the North Country...where flight conditions will range from IFR/MVFR across the higher terrain to MVFR/VFR across the lower elevations
Meanwhile further west
any showers should greatly diminish in coverage with mainly dry weather prevailing for much of the night...with flight conditions ranging from IFR/MVFR across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier to VFR elsewhere.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Overnight and Saturday low pressure will track from Minnesota to central Ontario Province...while slowly pushing its attendant warm front east and across the Lower Lakes region. This will result a moderately brisk south-southeasterly to southerly flow continuing to overspread the Lower Great Lakes...though the increasingly offshore nature of the flow will help to direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters
Consequently
conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

Following the passage of the warm front...a general southerly flow across the Lower Great Lakes will weaken some while turning more southwesterly Saturday night and Sunday. This will result in conditions remaining below advisory criteria
This being said
a few thunderstorms will become possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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