Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jordan, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure centered just south of the forecast area this morning will slide southeast to the Delmarva Peninsula by this afternoon.
This will provide for fair dry weather today and warming temperatures as southerly flow increases behind the sfc high. Some mid to high clouds will cross the area this morning with a weak ribbon of vorticity on the eastern side of the approaching ridge, but should remain generally few to scattered. Winds will remain light today, mainly below 10 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will warm to the low to mid 70s away from the lakes, with the warmest temperatures expected for areas south of Lake Ontario where warm air advection will start earlier.

Tonight, dry weather will continue through the night with the sfc high along the east coast and a ridge over the forecast area. As the next sfc low and frontal boundaries approach the region, the pressure gradient over the region will increase through the night tonight, causing winds to increase out of the south. Wind gusts to 25 mph will be possible by daybreak on Tuesday, with higher gusts possible for downslope areas such as the Chautauqua Ridge. Clouds will also start to increase later in the night as the system approaches the region. While the entire forecast area is expected to stay dry tonight, showers will be approaching from the northwest by daybreak associated with a shortwave trough out ahead of the incoming sfc low and fronts. Low temperatures will remain mild tonight with values in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening

Warm front lifting through the region will place the area within the warm sector Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Temperatures Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s will develop MLCAPE values to near 1500 j/KG by afternoon. Instability along with plenty of shear courtesy of a 60 knot southwesterly low level jet will bring the potenial for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. All severe hazards remain possible including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
However, most likely hazard will be damaging wind gusts with DCAPE values approaching 100 j/kg and expected linear evolution to the storms ahead of the cold front. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) covering the Niagara Frontier and North Country, and an ENHANCED RISK (Level 3/5) for much of the area along and south of the Thruway with this area in a more favorable locations away from lake shadowing.

The region should quickly dry out behind the cold front Tuesday night sfc high pressure translates across Ontario and Quebec through Wednesday. This will be accompanied by much cooler temperatures, especially compared to Tuesday afternoon's highs in the 70s and 80s.
There is a low chance for a few showers reaching far western NY late Wednesday night as a warm front arrives ahead of the next low pressure system emerging from the Plains.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Unsettled weather expected late week and through the weekend as a highly amplified pattern takes shape across the CONUS. Deep ridging moving across the Rockies with phasing shortwave energy to the east will help carve out a corresponding deep trough which will slowly dig across the Great Lakes through the weekend. This will likely result in widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms at times, particularly later Thursday through Friday as a broad wave of sfc low pressure cuts across the central Great Lakes.

Lower-end chances for showers will persist as cool, moist cyclonic flow remains in place Friday night through Saturday. Drier weather then expected through Sunday as high pressure builds back in from the west, though light showers may linger east of Lake Ontario.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure over the region will provide VFR conditions through tonight. Some mid to high clouds will pass across the area this morning from west to east. Clouds increase from west to east tonight ahead of the next sfc low and associated trough and cold front.

A tightening pressure gradient tonight will increase winds out of the south with gusts approaching 25 kts by daybreak for far western NY. Higher gusts with downsloping possible over the Chautauqua Ridge. There will also be the potential for LLWS starting around 6Z and continuing through the night as a LLJ pushes into the region.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with associated brief/local restrictions.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing late.
Slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday.. MVFR/IFR with showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
High pressure over the region will result in weaker winds and lower wave actions on the lakes and rivers today and into the evening.

South to southwesterly winds will increase during the second half of the night as the pressure gradient increases over the area out ahead of an approaching trough and strong cold front. Winds will likely be strong enough to reach SCA levels on most of the marine zones later tonight through Tuesday night.

High pressure crossing the region on Wednesday will bring the return to lighter winds and lower wave heights from Wednesday morning through at least Wednesday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.