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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm est this evening...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots veering northeast 10 to 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy through about 2 am then becoming mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and a slight chance of snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and a slight chance of snow. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots backing west late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds around 15 knots veering north late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 010237 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 937 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Marine

UPDATE
Issued at 937 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

- Downward Trend In Snowfall Amounts Friday

With the current observations and CAM guidance bumped temperatures up for those areas under cloud cover (mainly south of a Muskegon to Mount Pleasant line). This in turn will bring more rain than snow farther north than the previous forecast and therefore reduce snowfall accumulations. As rain moves north overnight the Lansing to Grand Rapids area may see more of rain to start which would limit impacts to the morning commute. There is still the potential for some snow to mix in. We'll heave to see where frontogenetical bands will set up as this will bring the best chance for any accumulating snow and visibility reductions. With the recent update the best chance for accumulations around an inch will be along M-57 during the day Friday. With the next forecast update snowfall amounts could be reduced more if temperature trends remain warmer.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

No significant changes to snow amounts have been made for Friday as we still expect 1 to 3 inches of snow, along and north of I-96. Expected surface temperatures are above freezing so conditions will be marginal for accumulating snow across most of the forecast area. We will not issue a Winter Weather Advisory as travel impacts are expected to be minor, except possibly in local areas where mesoscale snow bands bring higher snowfall rates that are able to put down a slushy coating.

The northern edge of the precip shield is expected to arrive in the southwest forecast area late this evening, in an area of mid level frontogenetical forcing in advance of a surface low tracking across the Ohio Valley Friday into Friday night.

Frontogenesis strengthens Friday morning and the hi-res models show some potential for mesoscale banding with most of the QPF expected between 8 am and noon. The highest precip rates are centered around 10 am at Grand Rapids. There could be a lull in the afternoon before a second vorticity max brings a round of lighter precip Friday night with additional light accumulations of generally less than an inch across the northern half of the forecast area,

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Near-normal temperatures are favored through the middle of next week as longwave troughing over the region remains the mode. A series of shortwave troughs and their attendant surface lows propagating through this pattern will provide 2 or 3 additional chances for precipitation through Thursday, each with their precip-amount and precip-type challenges (areas of rain/snow).

The ensemble guidance envelope is clustering around the idea of likely precipitation during the day Sunday as another TX panhandle low tracks over the OH valley or southern Great Lakes. QPF in any given location is far from settled, though area-wide looks to be a similar range as this Friday's system. Similar rain/snow challenges with this system also with the marginally warm temperatures in the lower atmosphere. A couple inches of wet snow is plausible somewhere, again.

An Alberta-clipper type of shortwave set to reinforce our region's troughing would then be favored to arrive Mon night to Tues. Less moisture would accompany this system, so lighter rain or snow amounts would be expected.

Then, low confidence in a low-amplitude shortwave with limited moisture tracking over our area for Wed night to Thu, before longer wave ridging becomes favored over the region with milder Pacific air flowing in for late week.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 622 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

An area of BKN to OVC ceilings around 3 to 6 kft is expanding over the area from AZO to MKG northeast to LAN to MOP. Sky coverage will continue to increase and gradually lower overnight to MVFR then IFR as rain moves into the area mainly after 6Z for southern Michigan and spreading toward a LAN to GRR to MKG line around 10Z to 14Z. Precipitation in this area may start of as more of a mix, but this line will be around the transition zone for precipitation with rain to the south and snow to the north. There could be periods along this line where bursts of snow occur causing accumulations on surfaces and low visibilities. Snowfall rates around a quarter to a half inch are possible in these heavier bursts.



MARINE
Issued at 937 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Winds and waves will continue to subside tonight, therefore will plan to let the Small Craft Advisory Expire at 11 PM tonight.
Offshore winds may briefly gust Friday morning to Small Craft levels, otherwise winds and waves are expected to remain below Advisory criteria through the weekend into next week.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.

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