UPDATE
Issued at 955 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Another night with clear skies and light/calm winds should promote patchy shallow ground fog once again as temps cool below the crossover temp. Best risk of late-night/early morning fog is near and east of the Highway U.S. 127 corridor where some locally dense patches cannot be ruled out for the morning commute time.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

- Mainly dry weather is expected over the next 7 days

WPC 7 day precipitation forecast which runs out through next Wednesday evening has zero precipitation in most of the forecast area. There is a small area in the eastern forecast area near Hwy 127 where a trace to a tenth of an inch is possible. Bottom line WPC does not think we are in the running for much precipitation and neither do we. We look to be dry through Saturday with upper level ridging in place. From Saturday night into early next week models show some weak shortwaves moving north within the ridge.
Our model blends have put 20 pct pops in the forecast for Saturday night through Monday, but we feel most if not all areas will remain dry. These pops will likely gradually lower as we approach that time range in the forecast. The hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico does move due north towards the Great Lakes, but is held at bay by the ridging over our area. We do not expect rain from the tropical system in our area, as it is forecast to meet its demise in the Tennessee and Ohio Valley's, well off to our south.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast to continue

850mb temperatures are largely steady state from today all the way through next Wednesday. The variation in the ECWMF and GFS through the entire time ranges from roughly +15C to +18C. This will result in high temperatures each day in the 83 to 87 degree range at least into Monday. Normal highs are slipping into the middle 70s this time of year so we will be around 10 degrees above normal.
For those hoping for some summer like weather hanging on into the fall...you got it!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 133 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Good radiational cooling was underway. The low levels remain dry so any fog has been patchy. We do expect a slight increase in the fog towards daybreak, with KJXN the most vulnerable to see impacts. Thus we continued the risk for brief periods of IFR at times at that site. Aside from the fog risk, VFR weather is predicted through the period. A general east southeast flow is forecasted. While the surface pressure gradient will be relatively weak, the deeper mixing in the afternoon could support brief wind gusts possibly topping 15 knots mainly for KAZO and KBTL.

MARINE
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Little to no marine concerns over the coming days with quiet weather conditions and mainly light winds. Winds will have an easterly component from tonight through Saturday with speeds either being light and variable or at most 5-15 knots. So, limited wave action is expected, 2 feet or less.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.