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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 1105 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm cst this afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots veering west early in the afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering northeast with gusts to around 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Friday..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers through the day. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely through around midnight, then chance of rain and snow showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early in the morning.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 300926 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 316 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

SHORT TERM
(Issued 315 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023)

Key Messages: - Quiet today despite front pushing through.
- Increasing rain/snow chances across southern parts of the CWA Friday - Warmer temperatures to keep snow amounts Friday limited at this time

Today through Friday Night:

Today will be quiet despite a low pressure system pushing across central Canada that will drag a cold front through the region during the day today. This is expected to be a dry front as very little in the way of moisture will be available and thus we largely expect clear skies. Higher pressure will slide in behind the front however that will lead us into tonight and Friday morning when the next potentially impactful system will begin to push in.

Another low pressure system will gradually strengthen and lift northeast from the south-central US. This is connected to the low moving through Canada but this will be associated with much more moisture and much better large scale forcing. At 500mb a fairly strong shortwave will be pushing through and there is plenty of moisture throughout the column. In addition there will be some frontogenesis on the northward edge of the precip shield in part due to some deformation.

The latest models have really started pushing this system further north and bring bringing better precip chances Friday/Friday night. Early Friday morning looks like the onset timing for precip across far southern WI and gradually lifting north through the day. Models currently restrict precip chances during the day Friday to far southern Wisconsin, largely south of the I-94 corridor. Friday morning with the cooler surface temps will feature the best chances for accumulating snowfall. Amounts will likely be very restricted by the low snow ratios (8:1), relatively warm temps (34-37 F) and rates not likely able to overcome these things. And by the afternoon the temps will be too warm to support accumulating snowfall. However, around an inch of snow is likely (60%) in some spots in far southern WI, though with the easterly flow off the lake, accumulating snow is likely restricted to inland areas where temps will be a bit cooler.
Ensemble probabilistic information is supportive of around an inch of snow but with a high degree of uncertainty with the ensemble EC showing slightly high snowfall but the Canadian and GFS ensembles showing less than an inch. This situation is still a bit in flux so we could see changes especially if we see some cooler trends, which would lead to additional snowfall.

Into Friday night the temperatures will remain relatively warm but some snow to a mix would be expected with little to no accumulations. As the main shortwave slides out during the day Friday the surface low will stagnate to a degree and with some additional PVA sliding in aloft to provide additional forcing with perhaps some affects from deformation. This will likely (40-60%) be enough to bring some lightly accumulating precip to southern Wisconsin. These precip chances will likely (60%) leak further north than the precip during the day Friday but given that QPF is expected to be lighter any snow should not be expected to accumulate to any more than a dusting.

Kuroski

LONG TERM
(Issued 315 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023)

Key Messages: - Another system with some snow expected Saturday evening through Sunday - Another system expected Tuesday with some additional snow.
- Ridge builds in toward middle of next week.

Saturday through Wednesday:

While Saturday appears to remain quiet by Saturday evening we will see another system starting to push through after again developing over the south- central US. But this time the system will track directly across the southern Great Lakes region bringing more widespread precip potential (40-60%) to southern Wisconsin through Sunday evening. This will largely be forced by a 500mb shortwave with plenty of PVA and widespread low to midlevel moisture. I would expect as we get a bit closer precip chances across the region will increase for Sunday. Some light snowfall accumulations should be expected (60%), especially further northwest where the cooler temps will be but given the relatively low QPF amounts over an inch are not expected.

This active period will not end as Monday may provide a brief break in precip chances with a brief period of higher pressure but by Tuesday another low pressure system should (60%) track through the region (this time a clipper from Canada). The exact timing is uncertain but another shortwave and this time some WAA will provide the forcing with plenty of moisture available to bring some precip. More uncertainty in WX types for this system but some rain/snow mix should be expected with light snow accumulations possible (30%).

Finally thereafter the large scale trough will likely (60%) push out with large scale ridging taking over for a bit. This should allow for some above average temperatures across the region as long as the ridge persists.

Kuroski

AVIATION
(Issued 315 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023)

Winds will remain southwesterly today ahead of an approaching cold front. The first few hours this morning may feature some southwest wind shear at around 35 to 40 kts. Southwest winds during the day will be relatively breezy, especially to the east with gusts up to 25 knots. The front should pass during the late afternoon, bringing winds around to northwesterly and wind speeds will ease in the wake of the front by the evening. No precipitation is expected with the front.

Cloud cover will increase this evening with IFR/MVFR CIGS pushing in as a system lifts north into the region. This will likely bring some snow and/or a rain/snow mix to parts of far southern WI by early Friday morning and continuing through the day becoming more mixy to rain by the afternoon, returning to a mix to snow Friday evening/night. Overall expect MVFR/IFR CIGS through much of Friday/Friday night with some VSBY restrictions at times due to snowfall. Accumulations are expected to be limited to Friday morning and restricted to mainly inland areas.

Kuroski

MARINE
(Issued 315 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023)

Winds currently from the southwest ahead of a cold front expected to push through by this afternoon. Winds will veer north later today into tonight behind the cold front. Southwest gusts from 25 to 30 knots are possible ahead of the front today, particularly across the central parts of the lake. A short term Small Craft Advisory has been issued from 12z to 21z today for the nearshore zones for these gusts ahead of the front. Breezy east to northeast winds will then develop Friday as low pressure of 29.8 inches passes by to the south across Illinois and into Indiana. No gales expected over the forecast period. Another Small Craft may (50%) be needed Friday for gusty northeast winds and high waves.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 PM Thursday.

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