Thursday, June4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Monona, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday June 4, 2020 10:23 PM CDT (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:28PMMoonset 4:35AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 906 Pm Cdt Thu Jun 4 2020
Rest of tonight..South wind 5 knots rising to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves nearly calm.
Friday..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest late in the morning, then veering northwest early in the afternoon becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..North wind 5 to 15 knots backing northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then backing west after midnight veering northwest early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..North wind 10 to 15 knots veering northeast with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
LMZ644 Expires:202006051000;;770721 FZUS53 KMKX 050206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 906 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-051000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monona, WI
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location: 43.07, -89.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 050251 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 951 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

UPDATE.

The convection earlier this evening in IA and SW WI has weakened and a subtle MCV with showers and a few rumbles is all that is left. This will push east but continue to dissipate and have tweaked pops to reflect this. The next question is going to be with the round of storms Friday morning. None of the newer hires guidance has a good handle on what is currently unfolding and thus anything after that is suspect. The storms moving out of SD should continue to drop SE following a convergence boundary into northern IA. Going through the night guidance does have the LLJ increasing over IA and this could force to boundary to shift N/NE. If this were to occur then I think the shortwave that is forecast to move across could support storms developing and moving through southern WI early Friday morning. Not overly confident in the forecast but will hold with the chance to likely pops we've got in there. Gusty winds of 40 to 60 mph and small hail are possible.

MARINE.

Patchy fog across the southern portion of Lake Michigan is evident in satellite imagery but uncertain if the fog is dense at this time. Otherwise, high pressure over the lake will keep winds and waves light tonight. An approaching system will bring chances for storms over much of the lake from early Friday morning into the evening hours. The current forecast is on track and no changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 617 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020)

UPDATE .

Storms developing across north-central IA this afternoon are forming along a convergence boundary. There is also a moisture gradient along this feature with 60 degree dewpoints south and 50s north. Radar imagery this afternoon has shown that as the storms have moved north into the drier/slightly more stable air they haven't been able to maintain their intensity. Satellite and radar would suggest that we could see a few more isolated storms fire along the north moving outflow boundary but again these are developing in a more stable environment so at this point only have limited chances for storms in the SW corner of the region this evening. Attention then turns to the NW where a shortwave moving out of ND/SD is creating a complex of storms. The current forecast has a good handle on the movement of these and no changes are needed at this time.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions are forecast through the period with a mid-level deck of SCT/BKN clouds moving in this evening. This is associated with the storms over IA this afternoon but think that as storms drop south the clouds scatter out as they move into southern WI. There is still uncertainty in the coverage of storms Friday morning as complex dropping out of the Dakotas moves through. Some guidance has this weakening with the heavier precip staying north.

If any storms do move over the terminals expect gusty winds and small hail with cigs dropping to MVFR to possibly IFR at times.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Friday . Forecast Confidence: Medium to High.

Wisconsin is currently under high pressure this afternoon. The weak overall flow, has allowed a lake breeze to develop and move inland. With the higher dewpoints and the minimal diurnally driven instability, the lake breeze has provided enough lift to generate some pop up rain showers. Any showers that develop along the lake breeze will be short lived and light.

By tonight an upper level trough will begin to move through the northern plains. The surface low pressure will begin to move into the region late tonight into Friday. By Friday morning the cold front will move through southern Wisconsin. There will be periods of rain showers and thunderstorms tonight through Friday as the trough passes Wisconsin. There is some elevated CAPE with several hundred J/kg available in southwestern Wisconsin this evening that will diminish overnight. Despite the CAPE, the soundings are rather dry throughout. The better forcing, lift, and moisture for thunderstorms will be Friday morning into the early afternoon hours, when the cold front passes.

This all culminates to two rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms tonight into Friday. The first round is expected to move into southwestern Wisconsin this evening and will be mostly airmass thunderstorms. The second round is expected to start early Friday morning and last through the afternoon hours. This second round is expected to consist of more organized convection, that could have some isolated severe gusts and hail.

LONG TERM .

An upper-lvl ridge will amplify and move eastward this weekend placing the area under high pressure and subsidence. This, in combination with north winds behind the cold front, will force out the muggy air mass, leading to a dry, sunny, and pleasant weekend. As the ridge access shifts eastward, heat and humidity will return on southerly winds during the day on Monday. Currently, model disagreement is occuring on Monday and Tuesdays highs, with the GFS keeping much of southern WI in the low 80s for both days, but the ECMWF reaching the upper 80s and low 90s. Have decided to keep highs in between for now, with further adjustments warranted as Monday and Tuesday draw closer.

Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning . Forecast Confidence is Low .

Considerable uncertainty exists for the mid-week time period next week owing to the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal. The GFS depicts the storm merging with an incoming shortwave trough aloft and becoming a potent low that moves N-NE across WI. ECMWF solutions tend to keep Cristobal a separate entity over Illinois that instead gets shoved off to the east by an approaching cold front. In either case, enhanced northward moisture transport from Cristobal will create quite the rainy period for southern WI, but the details of when exactly this rain will start and end and how much we will receive are still in question.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. There is currently high pressure over Wisconsin and an overall weak flow for today. The lake breeze has begun to slowly move across southern Wisconsin. The lake breeze has already passed the Milwaukee terminal and will pass through the other eastern terminals later this afternoon. There is a cold front that will be moving through southern Wisconsin early morning Friday which will bring rain showers and thunderstorms Friday.

MARINE .

Light and variable winds will gradually become more southerly by this evening. An approaching trough and surface cold front will then pass Friday into Friday night. There will be periods of light rain showers and thunderstorms moving across the lake starting Friday morning.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Stumpf Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine . Patterson Friday Night through Thursday . CMiller


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 76 mi53 min SE 1 G 1.9 59°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 80 mi43 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 59°F 1011.2 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 87 mi83 min N 6 G 6 58°F 1009.5 hPa (+1.4)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Madison, Dane County Regional-Truax Field, WI5 mi30 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F55°F57%1008.7 hPa
Middleton Muni - Morey Field, WI12 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair69°F61°F76%1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSN

Wind History from MSN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmS5NW4NW33CalmNW6NW7NW8NW9N5
G17
N5N5N4CalmCalmSE4Calm
1 day agoNW7NE6S10S8W4Calm4W63NW7NW6NW6NW5SW4SW3CalmCalmSW6W5Calm3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS8S8
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SW75SW3SW46SW5SW6SW8W7SW7SW9
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SW85SW5CalmN19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.