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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 1029 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Overnight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of dense fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Mon..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

ANZ100 1029 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm winds turn southeasterly tonight and then southerly Thursday as high pressure moves east of the waters. Fog may also be prevalent over the waters tonight. A frontal system will approach from the west and low pressure approaches from the south going into the weekend. These systems will likely bring showers and building seas across the waters this weekend.

FXUS61 KGYX 050231 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1031 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Above normal temperatures will continue for the rest of the week. High pressure that will continue this warm weather will begin to shift offshore Thursday into Friday. An upper trough moving through the Great Lakes will send a dynamic system into the area Friday night through Sunday morning likely bringing widespread rainfall to the region. Behind this system conditions will be cooler and unsettled as an upper low lingers over the Northeast.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
1030 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Aside from the advection stratus and fog on the Midcoast, radiational fog is developing elsewhere. A dense fog advisory may be needed later tonight for the morning commute for a portion of the forecast area.

715 PM Update...Just minor adjustments to temps and cloudcover.
Stratus continues to push slowly westward into the Rockland area and may continue to develop southward along the coast over the next few hours.

Previously...

Deep layer ridging is presently over the Northeast leading to another very warm afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and fair skies. The main story for tonight will be the potential for more widespread fog. Hi res guidance is suggesting areas of fog will be common across the coastal plain and within valleys with potential for locally dense fog.
Otherwise it will be mild tonight with lows in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The axis of the mid level ridge that brought our warm stretch of weather will shift east Thursday in response to a trough digging into the Great Lakes. However, surface high pressure offshore will keep the area precipitation free through the day. Fog will dissipate after sunrise although onshore flow may keep low stratus around along the coastal plain of Maine into the afternoon. It will again be warm for this time of year with highs pushing into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees across NH where there will be less in the way of cloud cover. Across Maine temperatures will range from the mid 70s north of the mountains to the upper 60s along the coast where clouds may linger through much of the day.

Areas of fog and low stratus will be possible again Thursday night, mostly likely along and south of the foothills. It will again be mild with lows in 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A vigorous and digging upper level low will begin to cross over the Great Lakes on Friday and Friday night, becoming negatively titled with time. Meanwhile, a slow moving frontal system will approach from the west. Ahead of this front, a south to southeasterly gradient will allow for low level moisture to head poleward from the Gulf of Maine. Low cloudiness and patchy fog may expand across the region, mainly along and near the coastline.

12Z operational models and ensemble solutions suggest uncertainty continues with the evolution of rainbands in northern New England on Saturday in associated with this system.
Additionally, cyclone phase diagrams suggest Philippe may be undergoing extratropical transition during the day. Modeled tracks of this developing system remain highly uncertain with the latest guidance.

In any case, locally heavy rainfall remains a possibility with potentially the highest amounts falling across the southeast facing higher terrain on Saturday. Gusty winds expected as well, potentially on the front side of the system, but more likely out of the west on Sunday.

A cool down will follow for next week as the upper level trough remains north of our region. Instability will trigger a few scattered rain showers with snow showers possible across the higher terrain.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Short Term...Low stratus and/or fog will likely bring IFR/LIFR conditions tonight to all taf sites. Fog and low stratus may impact coastal sites and KAUG around and shortly after 00Z. Fog and low cigs may continue flight restrictions for a couple hours after sunrise with conditions eventually improving the VFR during the day Thursday. Fog and low cigs will again bring potential for widespread IFR/LIFR Thursday night.

Long Term...IFR to LIFR flight restrictions are looking likely Friday and Friday night in the form of low ceilings and fog as S/SE increases moisture across the region. Conditions may improve to MVFR at MHT and CON and even VFR at LEB and HIE during the day Friday. Other terminals could very well could remain IFR.

Widespread showers will cross the region late Friday night through at least Saturday night with IFR and LIFR conditions.
Areas of fog will be likely to persist. Strong southeasterly winds are possible however the wind direction remains highly uncertain. Strong westerly winds will develop on Sunday.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds tonight through Thursday night. Fog is possible over the waters tonight and may be locally dense with additional chances for fog over the waters Thursday night.

Long Term...Fog may become more widespread across the waters Friday as a moist south to southeast flow develops ahead of a cold front that will cross the waters this weekend. In addition to this, low pressure from what is currently Tropical Storm Phillipe is expected to track north, perhaps moving near or into the Gulf of Maine this weekend (but post-tropical at this point). There is still quite a bit of uncertainty, however Small Craft conditions are expected over the weekend and possible Gale Force as well.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (disputed waters)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:41 AM EDT     8.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:51 PM EDT     8.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (disputed waters), New Hampshire, Tide feet

Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
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Wed -- 01:12 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:53 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:38 AM EDT     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:29 PM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:08 PM EDT     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current, knots

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