Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 7:53 PM   Moonset 5:46 AM

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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 506 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening - .
Tonight - Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots veering north 15 to 25 knots in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Scattered showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Isolated showers late in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 5 to 7 feet. Wednesday - North wind 15 to 25 knots easing to 10 to 20 knots late in the morning, then veering northeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet late in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then backing north after midnight becoming northeast early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning. Thursday - East wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 231957 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 257 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditional frost/freeze risk late tonight and again Wednesday night with temperatures around or just below freezing.

- Active pattern Friday through this weekend. Multiple rounds of showers/storms will result in locally heavy rainfall. The severe storm risk is more uncertain, but bears monitoring.

SHORT TERM
Issued 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Following the initial front coming through this afternoon, as the surface low slides southeast a secondary backdoor cold front will slide down the lake with northwest winds turning north behind the front. Associated with the front there may (30-40%)
be enough forcing despite the fairly dry air to bring a few showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder with a fairly sharp temperature shift behind the front with temperatures falling around 15 degrees in just a few hours.

Clouds are then expected to clear out behind the front as more stable air moves in with higher pressure pushing south into the northern Great Lakes region overnight. However winds will remain breezy overnight from the north given the fairly strong pressure gradient over the region. Temperatures tonight are expected to reach around freezing and while that would typically signal some front the winds will likely (80%) keep frost largely at bay with the exception of the far northwestern part of the CWA that could see some frost develop toward the early morning hours Wednesday morning.

High pressure will dominate the region Wednesday with weak large scale ridging overhead. The dry air will allow for clear skies throughout the day into tonight. As the pressure gradient weakens we should expect to see much lighter winds with largely light northeast winds expected. Overnight there will be a risk (60-70%) for a freeze with widespread frost given light winds and temperatures falling to around 30 degrees for parts of the CWA, with potential for temperatures to fall even further. We are holding off on a Freeze Watch for now but there may be a need as we fine tune our temperatures this evening.

Kuroski

LONG TERM
Issued 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Thursday through Tuesday...

Persistent long wave trough pattern will set up over the western states starting Thursday. Initially our region will be under ridging aloft, which will result in a quiet weather Thursday into early Friday. After a chilly start Thursday temperatures will respond to southerly winds and warm advection with highs away from the lakes returning to the 60s (50s by the lake).

The region will beneath southeast flow aloft from Friday through Monday, flattening out toward the middle of next week. This will send a series of shortwaves our way, with periods of rain and embedded storms. Warm advection rain will enter from the southwest through the day Friday and persist into early Saturday. ENS/GEFS probabilities place the best opportunity for greater than 0.5" of rain across western and southwestern portions of the state.

Depending upon timing and clearing, a portion of Saturday may remain dry with scattered convection possible during the afternoon and evening. If enough clearing is observed, we will need to monitor for a few strong/severe storms during the afternoon given the potential for MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and sufficient deep shear.

The next best opportunity for widespread rain moves in from the southwest Saturday night and lasts into Sunday night. A bit more uncertainty from the guidance with this wave as there are indications that the parent wave will be filling/weakening as it moves into the area. That said, jet dynamics and a moist atmosphere will support another decent round of rainfall. The ENS focuses the best chances for greater than 0.5" of rain across the western portions of the state, while the GEFS is focused more on the southern portion of the state. This is largely due to the differences in wave depth, speed and location. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for severe on Sunday, but our area seems to be (at best) on the north edge of any risk.

Overall, Friday to Monday looks active with multiple rounds of rain. This will not be a complete washout of a weekend as the ensembles point toward a dry period between the two main waves Friday and Sunday. There are some concerns for a few severe storms Saturday and once again Sunday, however these risk will be driven by the mesoscale evolution each day. Temperatures will be at/above average.

Gagan

AVIATION
Issued 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

In addition to the front coming through this afternoon we will be monitoring another backdoor cold front from the north, which will bring enough moisture to bring additional showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder this evening.

With a dry airmass in place, cloud development will be in the VFR category (at or above 5000 ft). The front quickly surges through the area by late this evening with some clearing. Will need to monitor for MVFR cigs for a few hours near the lakefront overnight associated with moisture off the lake.

High pressure builds into the region for Wednesday with quiet weather conditions expected with largely clear skies. North winds will start gusty, but gradually decrease through the day.

Kuroski

MARINE
Issued 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Expect winds to turn north early this evening, from north to south across Lake Michigan behind a backdoor cold front coming down across the lake as the surface low finishes its sweep through the western Great Lakes region. A period of north gales are expected tonight behind the cold front, and a Gale Warning has been issued. Building waves are expected as well tonight.
Winds and waves will gradually lighten up Wednesday into Thursday, as high pressure moves southeast across the region.
Small Craft remains in effect through Wednesday for waves and winds.

South winds will then increase again Friday and remain gusty into the upcoming weekend, as multiple low pressure systems move northeast through the region. There will be additional chances for gales Saturday with much of the extended seeing potential for Small Craft conditions in the nearshore.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Gale Warning
LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868...7 PM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777- LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Wednesday.

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