Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Niagara Falls, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure will maintain dry weather today. Sky forecast a bit trickier with some lower level moisture retrograding and pivoting around the low over Quebec. This will likely keep more clouds in across the eastern Lake Ontario with lesser cloud cover across western New York. However, high level clouds will overspread the region from the west through the day. After a chilly start this morning, temperatures will likely manage to reach the mid 50s to lower 60s, still some 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Tonight, frost potential is much lower with thickening cloud cover.
High pressure shifts east allowing upstream occluding surface low to advance into the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The leading edge of rain associated with a corridor of warm advection and moisture transport will start into the area from the southwest after midnight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
For the second half of the week...A complex synoptic setup as a closed low exiting the Upper Midwest to the east will pivot through the base of a secondary mid-level level low just south of James Bay through Friday. The interaction between these two features will result in a deep, broad closed mid level low over the eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday night. This system will then remain stalled over the region with steady large scale ascent and moisture transport/convergence while concurrently transferring energy to a secondary low off the Northeast coast through Friday night.

In terms of sensible weather, this pattern will result in a raw and dreary stretch for the forecast area. While cool Canadian air being dragged southward into the broad cyclonic flow around the stalled mid-level low will guarantee daytime temps remain some 10-15 degrees below normal, it will also bring a wealth of clouds and periods of rain. Rain should be more of the stratiform variety Wednesday through Thursday, before the flow turns northwesterly on Friday and causes it to be more light and showery. There may also occasionally be enough elevated instability present for a few embedded thunderstorms, particularly Wed night, though the vast majority of the time will be at least thunder-free.

Total rainfall amounts through this period are expected to follow a general southwest to northeast gradient...With latest NBM probabilities for >1" of rain around 70-80% in the western Southern Tier and 50-60% along the I-90 corridor from Buffalo to Rochester.
Much of this will likely fall between Wed-Thurs, spread out enough to minimize any hydrological concerns. These probabilities quickly fall off north of Syracuse and are just about null north of the Tug Hill.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A deep closed low over New England Saturday will slowly trudge east across the Canadian Maritimes through Sunday night. Moist cyclonic flow on the backside of this system will spur the development of additional showers across the region particularly in the afternoon hours with diurnal instability and cool temps aloft. A thin, decaying ridge of high pressure may briefly work back across the lakes Sunday and lead to lower shower chances/coverage. Yet another trough pivoting south out of Ontario and into the Great Lakes by Monday will maintain at least a low-end threat for daytime showers though confidence in this potential is low at this range.

Temperatures will finally begin to trend back upwards towards more seasonably readings over the long weekend.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low level moisture pivoting around low pressure over Quebec bringing some VFR/MVFR ceilings across central and portions of western New York early this morning. This cloud cover is not being handled very well by higher resolution models, so overall confidence on how long this lower cloud will last is low.

Expect to have at least some erosion to the lower cloud through the day today, with advancing higher and mid level cloud cover from the west through tonight. An area of rain will start to work into the region from the southwest after midnight, likely impacting KJHW before 12z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Saturday...IFR to MVFR with showers.

MARINE
High pressure wedging in over the region will provide mainly light winds and wave action today.

A low pressure system moving into the eastern Great Lakes from the Ohio Valley Wednesday will then very slowly cross the lakes through Friday. This will cause northeast winds to strengthen starting tonight. The greatest wave action is expected to remain mostly offshore through Wednesday night, though SCA conditions could be reached for a time along the western shoreline of Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001>003- 010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.