Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ferrysburg, MI
October 4, 2023 11:23 PM EDT (03:23 UTC)
Sunrise 7:44AM Sunset 7:23PM Moonrise 9:29PM Moonset 1:03PM
LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots veering northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Friday..West winds to 30 knots. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of waterspouts. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the day.
Friday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of waterspouts. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Saturday..Northwest gales to 35 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 7 to 11 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Columbus day..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots veering northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Friday..West winds to 30 knots. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of waterspouts. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the day.
Friday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of waterspouts. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Saturday..Northwest gales to 35 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 7 to 11 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Columbus day..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ800
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KGRR 050317 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1117 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Marine
UPDATE
Issued at 1117 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Made tweaks to POPs based on current radar. Showers are filling in along and ahead of surface cold front with a strip of likely POPs across the northwest zones moving east overnight with enough mid level instability for isolated thunder.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Relatively narrow band of showers, about 50-70 miles wide, is expected to come together tonight from Chicago to Holland/GRR to Mt Pleasant/Alma as a cold front slowly approaches from the west.
Isolated thunderstorms also possible with MUCapes of 500-1000 J/KG progged; highest around 06Z tonight in the nw CWFA.
This is also in response to FGEN forcing and upper level divergence within the entrance region of 110 kt upper level jet streak on east side of approaching longwave trough. A narrow ribbon of PWATs just over 1.5" is progged just ahead of the cold front.
As the sfc front inches slowly eastward on Thursday and good upper support persists, the showers will continue and gradually expand/edge farther south and east. Best PoPs at JXN may not materialize until Thursday afternoon, and the Ludington area may see only light amounts tonight followed by little to no rain on Thursday.
Total ensemble QPF mean is 0.75 to 1.00" through the heart of the CWFA tonight and Thursday although support continues for a few localized amounts of greater than 1.5". Lesser amounts of 0.25 to 0.50" are anticipated either side of where the heaviest rain axis sets up, expected to be generally north and west of a MKG to MOP line as well as south and east of a BTL to LAN line.
Showers threat temporarily ending Thursday night as this first front works east of the area.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
We continue to have high confidence that we will have a cool and showery period for this weekend. The beginning of the long term on Friday will be a transition period into the coolest conditions.
This is because we will initially be in between the departing cold front from Thursday, and the cold pool aloft that will rotate overhead later Friday and remain overhead through Saturday. The arrival of the cold pool aloft will be led by a strong short wave diving through the area late Friday afternoon and evening. This, combined with over lake instability that will be present with the warm water temps and cool temps aloft will help fuel additional showers, and maybe even a storm or two along the lakeshore.
We should then see the rain showers trend from the widespread variety with the short wave, to more lake effect Friday night and Saturday. Delta t's increase to 15 to 20C providing for plenty of fuel. The mean low level flow will be from the NW, targeting the NW and SW corners of the CWFA for rain chances. Can not rule out some pop up showers inland, with weak short waves coming through, and just sufficient air mass instability.
The rain chances should diminish a bit for Sunday through Tuesday compared to Friday and Saturday. The chances do not go to zero however as we keep cyclonic flow aloft overhead. The confidence level goes down a bit in the rain chances as trying to forecast short waves out this far is a bit difficult. What also happens is the upper low is trying to hold in place here, while the next long wave trough/low tries to push ridging at the area. What we do know is temps aloft should moderate a bit as the original low moves away, and rain chances will be on the lower side.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Cloudy skies will continue overnight with rain showers moving in through northern lower as a boundary will sweep overhead overnight into Thursday. Have adjusted rain shower onset times. Rain showers are expected to become possible at KMKG between 01-03z with MVFR cigs and vsbys possible. This will slowly shift SE through the night, with KJXN maybe not seeing rain showers until just before daybreak. KMKG has the best chance to see some thunder tonight, with KGRR on the SE edge of the better instability.
Cigs will lower from west to east with IFR becoming dominant tomorrow morning and continuing through the afternoon. The showers will shift eastward Thursday with showers continuing at most sites through the daytime tomorrow.
MARINE
Issued at 1117 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Dropped the SCA as winds and waves are diminishing. We will need to hoist another one as west winds increase behind the front late Thursday.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1117 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Marine
UPDATE
Issued at 1117 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Made tweaks to POPs based on current radar. Showers are filling in along and ahead of surface cold front with a strip of likely POPs across the northwest zones moving east overnight with enough mid level instability for isolated thunder.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Relatively narrow band of showers, about 50-70 miles wide, is expected to come together tonight from Chicago to Holland/GRR to Mt Pleasant/Alma as a cold front slowly approaches from the west.
Isolated thunderstorms also possible with MUCapes of 500-1000 J/KG progged; highest around 06Z tonight in the nw CWFA.
This is also in response to FGEN forcing and upper level divergence within the entrance region of 110 kt upper level jet streak on east side of approaching longwave trough. A narrow ribbon of PWATs just over 1.5" is progged just ahead of the cold front.
As the sfc front inches slowly eastward on Thursday and good upper support persists, the showers will continue and gradually expand/edge farther south and east. Best PoPs at JXN may not materialize until Thursday afternoon, and the Ludington area may see only light amounts tonight followed by little to no rain on Thursday.
Total ensemble QPF mean is 0.75 to 1.00" through the heart of the CWFA tonight and Thursday although support continues for a few localized amounts of greater than 1.5". Lesser amounts of 0.25 to 0.50" are anticipated either side of where the heaviest rain axis sets up, expected to be generally north and west of a MKG to MOP line as well as south and east of a BTL to LAN line.
Showers threat temporarily ending Thursday night as this first front works east of the area.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
We continue to have high confidence that we will have a cool and showery period for this weekend. The beginning of the long term on Friday will be a transition period into the coolest conditions.
This is because we will initially be in between the departing cold front from Thursday, and the cold pool aloft that will rotate overhead later Friday and remain overhead through Saturday. The arrival of the cold pool aloft will be led by a strong short wave diving through the area late Friday afternoon and evening. This, combined with over lake instability that will be present with the warm water temps and cool temps aloft will help fuel additional showers, and maybe even a storm or two along the lakeshore.
We should then see the rain showers trend from the widespread variety with the short wave, to more lake effect Friday night and Saturday. Delta t's increase to 15 to 20C providing for plenty of fuel. The mean low level flow will be from the NW, targeting the NW and SW corners of the CWFA for rain chances. Can not rule out some pop up showers inland, with weak short waves coming through, and just sufficient air mass instability.
The rain chances should diminish a bit for Sunday through Tuesday compared to Friday and Saturday. The chances do not go to zero however as we keep cyclonic flow aloft overhead. The confidence level goes down a bit in the rain chances as trying to forecast short waves out this far is a bit difficult. What also happens is the upper low is trying to hold in place here, while the next long wave trough/low tries to push ridging at the area. What we do know is temps aloft should moderate a bit as the original low moves away, and rain chances will be on the lower side.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Cloudy skies will continue overnight with rain showers moving in through northern lower as a boundary will sweep overhead overnight into Thursday. Have adjusted rain shower onset times. Rain showers are expected to become possible at KMKG between 01-03z with MVFR cigs and vsbys possible. This will slowly shift SE through the night, with KJXN maybe not seeing rain showers until just before daybreak. KMKG has the best chance to see some thunder tonight, with KGRR on the SE edge of the better instability.
Cigs will lower from west to east with IFR becoming dominant tomorrow morning and continuing through the afternoon. The showers will shift eastward Thursday with showers continuing at most sites through the daytime tomorrow.
MARINE
Issued at 1117 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Dropped the SCA as winds and waves are diminishing. We will need to hoist another one as west winds increase behind the front late Thursday.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45161 | 9 mi | 44 min | 67°F | 3 ft | ||||
| MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 11 mi | 34 min | 71°F | 29.91 | 62°F | |||
| 45029 | 13 mi | 34 min | SSW 14G | 67°F | 2 ft | |||
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 22 mi | 54 min | S 12G | 72°F | 67°F | 29.89 | 64°F | |
| 45168 | 48 mi | 44 min | SSE 5.8G | 70°F | 67°F | 1 ft | 29.93 | 62°F |
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 48 mi | 44 min | SSE 9.9G | 75°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMKG MUSKEGON COUNTY,MI | 6 sm | 28 min | S 09 | 7 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 61°F | 65% | 29.92 | |
Wind History from MKG
(wind in knots)
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE