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FXUS61 KALY 050159 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 959 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will bring fair weather tonight into tomorrow with temperatures continuing above normal. Clouds increase Thursday night with some scattered showers developing Friday ahead of a cold front. The slow moving cold front will bring periods of showers, breezy conditions and cooler weather Saturday with below normal temperatures and blustery conditions for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

UPDATE
As of 10 PM the forecast remains on track this evening. Only minor adjustments made to temperatures to reflect current obs and to account for latest model trends. Otherwise, all other parameters are status quo. See the previous discussion below for additional information.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [400 PM]...
As of 400 PM EDT...Beautiful early October day across eastern NY and western New England, as temps have risen into the upper 70s to mid 80s across eastern NY and western New England. Some spotty upper 80s have also occurred in the anomalously warm air mass for early October. Some records are possible and see our climate section below. A far cry from October 4, 1987, when a major snowstorm occurred across east-central NY into portions of western New England.

Clear/mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will allow for radiational cooling once again tonight. Patchy to areas of valley fog will form again. We added patchy dense fog to the river valley areas (similar to this morning). Some low-level stratus may form in the east/southeast flow, as the sfc high moves east of New England. Lows will be mild in the 50s with some upper 40s over the eastern Catskills and southern Dacks.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Tomorrow...The mid and upper level ridge axis will be along the East Coast with the sfc anticyclone near the Mid Atlantic States. Partly to mostly sunny conditions are expected with the fog burning off in the morning. Some lower stratus may linger south and east of the Capital Region until the early pm. Max temps will run about 10 degrees above normal...up to 15 degrees in a few spots. Max temps near a NBM/MAV blend are expected with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys and 70s over the higher terrain. The warmest readings may end up over the northern portion of the forecast area where a bit more sunshine may occur.

Thu night into Friday...A mid and upper level trough will approach from the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. The low to mid level flow will become south to southwest. Clouds will increase Thu night. A pre frontal disturbance may bring a few light showers/sprinkles to locations south and west of the Capital Region by daybreak. It will be mild and breezy. Lows will be in the 50s to around 60F.

Friday will feature thickening and lowering clouds with showers increasing by the afternoon due to an inverted sfc trough off the Coast and the approaching cold front. The isentropic lift increases with the guidance showing showers spreading across the region by the mid to late pm. The better synoptic forcing does not arrive until night time. Temps will be cooler with clouds and pcpn moving in with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

Moisture advection increases ahead of the cold front. The low- level thermal gradient enhances with the strong cold front. The upper level trough turns negatively tilted and begins to phase with a wave off the coast. The low-level convergence increases with good upper level dynamical support. Showers will become numerous and with weak elevated instability a rumble of thunder is possible. Lows fall into the 50s to around 60F with breezy conditions.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A shift back to Fall coming for the weekend. Brisk and cool conditions will persist Saturday into Sunday. Temps dip below normal in the cyclonic flow heading into next week. Lake enhanced showers may persist into Tuesday with the upper low.
More clouds than sunshine expected with temps running around 10 degrees below normal.

Saturday will be the transitional day where the trough becomes negatively tilted with periods of rain and weak instability with showers continuing through the day with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Some gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms. The heaviest rain tallies through Saturday will be north of I-90 with 1-2+" possible over the southern Dacks, Lake George Region and southern VT. 0.5" to 1.5" further south.
Some ponding and poor drainage flooding is possible. The low may deepen and intensify as it is captured and migrates north/northwest of the region over s-cntrl Quebec by Sunday. It will become blustery and much cooler by Sunday. Highs in the mid 50s to mid/upper 60s on Saturday will be replaced by 50s in the valleys on Sunday with 40s to lower 50s over the hills and mtns. West to northwest winds in the cold advection regime will be 10-20 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Lows Sat night will be in the 40s with some upper 30s over the higher terrain.

Cool and brisk conditions continue Sunday night into Columbus Day in the cyclonic flow aloft with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s and highs Monday in the 40s to to mid 50s with lake effect/lake enhanced showers. Some snow is possible over the high peaks of the southern Dacks. The below normal temps continue into the mid week with chances of showers on Tuesday especially over the higher terrain, and the upper low gradually weakening by the mid week with less coverage for showers.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z FRI...VFR conditions expected through at least 06 UTC at all sites except GFL where fog may start developing as early as 00 - 03 UTC given calm winds and temperatures quickly approaching their respective dew points. Elsewhere, a light southeast breeze remains in place and this breeze could continue overnight which would act to reduce fog formation. Therefore, we trended the forecast to be more optimistic with only MVFR visibility and BKN LIFR ceilings instead of OVC or VV ceilings.
Southeast winds tonight also look to advect a marine stratus deck inland off of the Atlantic and this cloud deck could reach POU towards 09 - 12 UTC. Less confident on fog developing at POU so only show MVFR visibility there.

Where patchy fog and/or low stratus develop will likely linger until 14 UTC. After that, southeast winds should strengthen enough that VFR conditions return. Cirrus clouds will continue overspreading the region from west to east across the terminals through the day.

Southeast winds tonight will be variable between calm and 3-5 kts. When winds are calm, fog likely develops but when the winds increase, fog will likely diminishes. By 14-16 UTC southeast winds will likely increase to become sustained 5 - 12kts with occasional gusts up to 15-20kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Columbus Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

CLIMATE
Daily record high temperatures

October 4th ALB 86 (1891)
GFL 80 (1951)
POU 86 (1941)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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