Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mayfield, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) High probability for below normal temperatures Sunday night through Tuesday morning, with areas of frost/freezing temperatures possible mainly north of I-90.

2) Additional opportunities for rainfall during the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a brief return to seasonable temperatures Sunday, below normal temperatures return Sunday night and continue through at least early Tuesday as upper level trough/cold air aloft dominates. The growing season begins Monday morning (May 11) for the next layer of areas, with the growing season then underway in all areas of eastern NY/western New England outside of the SW Adirondacks. Min temps look to drop into the lower/mid 30s across portions of the Mohawk Valley, upper Hudson Valley, southern VT/western MA and the eastern Catskills Mon AM, and perhaps even a larger area (mainly north of I-90) Tue AM, and will likely necessitate issuance of frost advisories or freeze warnings.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Current area of steady light to moderate rain will gradually taper off from west to east this afternoon, although may take until 4-6 PM before ending across portions of western New England and the mid Hudson Valley. A few rumbles of thunder could occur across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, as some elevated convection across NJ tracks north/northeast. Otherwise, some spotty drizzle/light showers may linger into this evening across the Mohawk Valley and Lake George/Saratoga region. An approaching cold front will then bring a band of showers into the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley after midnight, before tracking across the Capital Region and southern VT/western MA toward or just after daybreak.

Scattered showers could linger into mid/late Sunday morning across portions of western New England, otherwise drier conditions return for Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with the exception of some possible lingering showers close to I-84 Sunday night/early Monday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the front, as well as some isolated/scattered showers across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT Monday afternoon associated with an approaching upper level disturbance. Better chances for showers for Wednesday-Thursday as upper level energy approaches from the Great Lakes region and a surface low develops near or just off the northern mid Atlantic coast.
Depending on how this upper level trough evolves, showers and/or areas of steady rain could linger into late week. Areas south of I-90 would have the highest probabilities for steady rain during the mid to late week period given the possible coastal low pressure system.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 00z Monday...Varying conditions from VFR to MVFR occurring early this evening, with more variation expected through the rest of the evening. There have been some breaks in the low level clouds, although with plenty of residual moisture, expansion of low level stratus is expected again this evening into tonight. Tricky vsby forecast, as some of the breaks could lead to some fog and MVFR/IFR at times, especially at KGFL/KPOU. Overall MVFR cigs should trend to IFR or even LIFR overnight. The low level clouds are expected to mix out Sunday morning, with gradual improvement to MVFR then eventually VFR.
Scattered -SHRA with brief MVFR conditions are possible along a cold front through Sunday afternoon. Will mention PROB30 to account for this activity. Isolated -TSRA cannot be ruled out.
Winds will southeast around 5 kt or less tonight, becoming west- southwest on Sunday and increasing to 8-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt developing Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.