Friday, April16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mayfield, NY

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:42PM Friday April 16, 2021 6:10 AM EDT (10:10 UTC) Moonrise 8:39AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayfield, NY
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location: 43.1, -74.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 160952 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 552 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Higher elevation snow and valley rain to rain snow mix will continue through the day on Friday before coming to an end from west to east Friday night into Saturday morning. A mostly dry and tranquil weather pattern returns over the weekend. An isolated shower or two is possible Sunday. Midweek next week, a cold front will bring us our next best chance for more widespread precipitation. Temperatures will moderate back to near seasonable levels through early next week before returning to cooler than normal levels later next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. . A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Bennington, western Windham, and northern Berkshire Counties from 8 PM EDT this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday .

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for eastern Windham and southern Berkshire Counties from 8 PM EDT this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday .

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Southern Adirondacks, portions of the Eastern Catskills and the Rensselaer Plateau from 7 PM EDT this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday .

As of 4:00 AM EDT, the 500 mb RAP analysis depicted the strong sub- 540 mb closed low centered over north-central Pennsylvania. Surface analysis depicted a 1000 mb surface low pressure system offshore the south-southeastern New England. Upper diffluence was observed over the ALY forecast area with precipitation ongoing. Rain to a rain/snow mix is occurring in the valleys with boundary layer temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Higher elevations mainly above 1000 feet have transitioned to all snow. So far, a general 1-3 inches of snow was reported over the eastern Catskills, western New England, and the Rensselaer Plataea. Rain amounts about the area range from 0.80-1.60 inches so far. Precipitation, whether rain or snow, continues to fall over the area. Precipitation could be moderate to heavy at times.

As we progress through the day today, the coastal low offshore southeastern New England will make a northward track towards Cape Cod before retrograding westward onshore the coast of Massachusetts by this afternoon. Once onshore the coast of Massachusetts, the surface low will become stationary over the coast of Massachusetts through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours.

As this happens, expectations precipitation-wise, per multiple CAM and hi-res guidance (including the HRRR, RAP, and NAM3km), is for the precipitation bands to pivot and retrograde westward. With the best mid-level (H700-H850) frontogenesis banding and large scale ascent favored from western New England and points east-northeast, moderate to heavy snow banding will be favored to occur over western New England.

Elsewhere, occasional light to moderate precipitation (mountain snow, valley rain/snow mix to rain) is expected as multiple mid- upper impulses pivots around the aforementioned closed H500 low and the coastal surface low.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. This evening/tonight into Saturday morning, the coastal low will finally push eastward off shore the coast of New England and into the Atlantic Ocean. As it pulls further away from the region and as negative vorticity advection (NVA) increases over the region, precipitation should lessen in intensity and coverage eventually ending from west to east.

Clouds will remain over the area Friday night with maybe only slight improvements from overcast to mostly cloudy by Saturday morning.

Temperatures will be cooler than average for mid-April with high temperatures Friday in the mid to upper 40s along the valleys (mid- 30s to lower 40s higher elevations) and high temperatures on Saturday in the low to mid 50s along the valleys (cooler higher elevations). Low temperatures Friday night into Saturday will be in the mid to upper 30s (upper 20s to near 30F higher elevations).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The closed low will lose its grip on the region as it weakens and moves away. Baggy weak troughing will be left with weak short waves moving through the flow. With daytime heating expect the threat of showers during the day both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures expected to moderate back up to seasonable levels with highs Sunday in the 50s with 40s above 1500 feet and Monday in the 60s mainly below 1000 feet and in the 50s above that.

Short waves rotating about an upper low settling southward across Hudson Bay are expected to dig a trough across the Great Lakes Region early next week. Ridging induced ahead of this deepening trough will result southwesterly flow across our region with temperatures warming to above normal levels for Tuesday with highs in the 60s with 50s above 1500 feet. A cold front associated with this trough will be on the approach and is expected to cross the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Guidance indicates a wave of low pressure should form along the boundary slowing the front's progresses across the region and enhancing the chances for showers.

Cooler airmass will be ushered with the passage front. Temperatures are expected to be cold enough for any lingering showers to be snow across the higher terrain Wednesday night. There is uncertainty in the guidance as the GFS swings an upper trough axis through Thursday while the ECMWF closes off low and moves it over the region Thursday.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Upper level low will continue to move gradually southeastward across the region. The initial surface low over the eastern Great Lakes continues to weaken as the secondary low centered just south of Cape Cod deepens. The coastal low will move northward to over eastern Massachusetts this morning then it will move little the rest of the day on Friday. Once the system is vertically stacked it will begin to weaken and shift eastward this evening.

Conditions will remain poor across the area as precipitation, rain and snow, continues well into this afternoon. IFR conditions are expected to persist at KALB, KGFL and KPSF into the afternoon then an improvement to MVFR conditions is expected. Snow at KPSF with rain expected to mix in as temperature rise this morning with a changeover to rain expected by early afternoon. Even as the precipitation winds down MVFR conditions are expected to persist.

The exception will be KPOU which will be on the edge of the precipitation shield. MVFR conditions are expected at times especially when precipitation occurs.

Steady precipitation is expected to taper off to taper by late afternoon and end in the evening.

A northerly flow at less than 10 knots will develop today.

Outlook .

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. A widespread soaking rainfall along with accumulating snow at higher elevations is expected through tonight. Rain and snow will continue into Friday for most areas before ending from southwest to northeast. Only a few isolated showers are possible over the weekend with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Minimum RH values are expected to fall to 45 to 55 percent each day with light west to northwest winds.

HYDROLOGY. Periods of rain and snow will continue across the region into Friday night. 1-2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation is forecast which will lead to rises on area rivers and streams. No flooding is anticipated at this time although some smaller creeks could approach bankfull.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032- 033-042-051-054-058-082. MA . Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MAZ025. Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MAZ001. VT . Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VTZ015. Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VTZ013-014.

SYNOPSIS . Evbuoma NEAR TERM . Evbuoma SHORT TERM . Evbuoma LONG TERM . IAA AVIATION . IAA FIRE WEATHER . Evbuoma/Thompson HYDROLOGY . Evbuoma/Rathbun


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 78 mi40 min Calm 38°F 1005 hPa37°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KSCH

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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2 days ago------------------CalmCalmCalmW7NW8NW6W6CalmCalmSW4W4W4--W3W3

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Fri -- 03:11 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM EDT     5.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:09 PM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.51.10.712.23.74.85.45.65.24.23.12.31.71.10.81.32.53.64.24.54.33.6

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:40 AM EDT     5.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:45 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:01 PM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.410.71.12.43.955.55.65.142.92.21.610.81.52.73.74.34.54.23.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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