Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mayfield, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:09PM Sunday August 9, 2020 3:57 PM EDT (19:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:14PMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayfield, NY
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location: 43.1, -74.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 091740 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 140 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Increasing heat and humidity is forecast over the next few days with oppressive heat and humidity expected on Monday and Tuesday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible today and Monday. An approaching cold front may bring a more widespread threat for showers and Thunderstorms later Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 135 PM EDT . skies are partly to mostly sunny across most of the area with mainly scattered to broken cumulus and some cloudier conditions over far northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties associated with some showers over the Saint Lawrence River Valley. Nothing on radar in our area at the moment. There have been a few pop-up showers today, but they have had difficulty maintaining. Models show pocket of drier air advecting in from Finger Lakes/central NY which is helping to limit showers. Temperatures have warmed to around 80 in the hill towns and to around 90 in the mid Hudson Valley

Previous . A sfc trough or differential heating boundary looks to set up across southern New England this morning into the afternoon. Along this boundary a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms may occur over the Litchfield Hills into the Berkshires and perhaps the southern and central Taconics. The 00Z HREFs mean SBCAPEs are in the 500-1000+ J/kg range from the Capital Region/southern VT south and east into the Berkshires and NW CT. The 0-6 km shear is about 20-25 kts, so some loosely organized convection is possible. PWATs increase to 1.2-1.6". The main threat looks like a brief downpour.

The skies will likely become partly to mostly sunny initially, and another mid and upper-level short-wave moving across southeast Canada into northern NY will flatten the ridge in the afternoon for an increasing threat of late afternoon showers or thunderstorms from the Capital Region north and west. We kept PoPs in the slight chance range, and went low chance PoPs over the southern Adirondacks. The 00Z 3-km HRRR quickly brought the showers in, but subsequent runs backed off for the mid afternoon. The 00Z HREFS do not show much instability over the northern zones with less than 250 J/kg of SBCAPE. The latest Day 1 Outlook from SPC does not have any general thunder likely over the northern zones due to weak mid and upper level lapse rates, and the lack of instability over the northern zones.

Most of the forecast area from the Capital District south and west should remain dry the better part of the day with humidity levels starting to increase, as sfc dewpts rise into the mid and upper 60s in the valleys, and upper 50s to lower 60s over the mtns.

H850 temps increase to +14C to +17C with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s over the mtns, and mid and upper 80s in the valleys with a few 90F readings near KPOU.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/. Tonight . The short-wave trough will be moving across upstate NY and New England. The greatest shower or isolated thunderstorms coverage should be across the southern Adirondacks, the Lake George Saratoga Region and southern VT. Can not rule out and isold shower/t-storm as far south as the I-90 corridor. The loss of the daytime heating and limited elevated instability should limit the convective threat overnight. We removed thunderstorms after midnight. Depending how fast we clear in the wake of the short-wave trough we could have some patchy fog. We did not add it to the forecast yet with variably cloudiness overnight. Lows will generally be in the mid 60s in the lower elevations and upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain.

Monday . Some ridging looks to build in over the region to start the week, as mid and upper level heights rise. A sfc anticyclone will be nudging in from the south and west. The CAMs and NAM/GFS/ECMWF are variable in convection forming or breaking through a cap in the low to mid levels. For example, the 3-km NAMnest shows very little convective coverage with a hot and mainly dry day, whereas the 12-km NAM shows some diurnally timed isold-sct showers and thunderstorms with perhaps a brief impulse in northwest flow aloft. There is not a clear trigger/lifting mechanism despite increasing humidity and amounts of instability available. We tried to keep most of the area in a slight chance of diurnally-timed or terrain/differential heating pulse or pop-up showers and thunderstorms. We went with slightly higher PoPs over the southern Adirondacks, where coverage may be a bit more. Dewpts rise into the 60s to lower 90s, as the heat and humidity increases. H850 temps rise +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal based on the latest 00Z GEFS with the actual values in the +17C to +19C range. The combination of the hot temps expected /upper 80s to lower 90s/ and high dewpts will allow heat indices to get into the mid and upper 90s in the mid Hudson Valley /eastern Greene, western Columbia, eastern Ulster and western Dutchess Counties/. A heat advisory will likely be needed with these oppressive heat indices. Overall, max temps will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valley areas, and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns.

Mon night . With the loss of the diurnal heating the isolated/sct showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly. The skies will become mostly to partly cloudy and it will be sticky and humid. Some patchy fog may form again. Lows will be muggy in the 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday . An oppressively hot and humid day is expected with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F due to the combination of the hot temps and high dewpts in the Hudson River Valley, Mohawk Valley, southern and central Taconics and across the valley areas of southern VT. A heat advisory will likely be needed in many of these areas below 1000 ft in elevation. H850 temps increase to +18C to +20C with southwest flow aloft, as the ridge builds in along the East Coast. The downsloping flow off the Helderbergs, eastern Catskills, and Adirondacks should allow the Hudson River Valley to get very warm with widespread lower 90s. Actually, max temps will be widespread in the upper 80s to lower 90s below 1000 ft in elevation, and 80F to 85F over the mtns. We will have to watch out for a prefrontal sfc trough focusing some mid to late afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The main cold front remains well to the west of the region on Tuesday. Some pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the sfc trough due to the differential heating between the mtns/valleys ahead of it. A few storms could be on the stronger side with gusty winds, and with PWATs in the 1.33-1.75" range (1-2 STDEVs above normal) some locally heavy downpours will be possible.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. The period starts out Tuesday night into Wednesday with a cold front slowly moving southeast across the region. The stronger upper level flow will remain well north in Canada, so the front will move slowly. Very warm/humid conditions will persist through Wednesday as the front stalls across southern portion of our area. Will continue to mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms during this time. With dewpoints in upper 60s/lower 70s there could still be some borderline heat index values near 95 in parts of the mid Hudson Valley, so another Heat Advisory may be needed for a limited area Wednesday afternoon. At this time, organized/severe convection does not appear likely as the flow is very weak and deep layer shear looks to be < 20 kt.

Forecast confidence then decreases Thursday and Friday, as the main question will be how far south the front can progress before stalling. This will have significant implications for where it will be mostly cloudy/showery vs. drier/more sunshine. Based on the 00Z guidance, the GFS has the front stalling farther north with at least the southern half of our area experiencing occasional showers. The ECMWF depicts the front stalling farther south, which would imply drier conditions for most of our area. With the low confidence, will mention chance pops for the southern half of the area with the higher chances southeast of Albany. This pattern generally looks to hold through Friday, with some possible oscillation of the front.

By Saturday, it appears as the front could jog a bit southward, as a northeast low level flow develops with surface high pressure settling southward into Maine. This would lower chances for showers more appreciably, so will only mention slight chance for much of the area.

Temperatures will gradually cool through the long term period, but are expected to remain slightly above normal much of the time. Should the front stall farther north, then temperature would end up being cooler due to more persistent clouds/showers later in the week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Through 18z/Mon . VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon with few-sct fair weather cu. A few very isolated showers have popped up across the region but have failed to sustain themselves for long periods of time. Due to the expected lack of coverage and duration, will not include VCSH at the TAF sites.

Tonight, an upper-level shortwave will pass to the north of the region. Following a mostly clear evening, clouds will be on the increase during the overnight with bases gradually lowering (but still VFR). Most shower activity will be to the north of KGFL, but will maintain VCSH should a shower pass through.

Cigs are expected to continue lowering below 3000 feet by early Monday morning, but confidence is low on whether the coverage will be scattered or broken. Will include VFR cigs at KALB/KGFL/KPSF for this update, though some MVFR cigs may be possible before clouds lift by midday. VFR will remain at KPOU with less cloud coverage expected.

Wind will be out of the south to southwest at 4-8 kt through this afternoon, then be light and variable tonight. Wind will be mainly out of the west to southwest at 5-10 kt tomorrow.

Outlook .

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA.

FIRE WEATHER. High pressure will slowly move east of New England today with temperatures rising above normal. An upper level disturbance will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Capital Region north and west late this afternoon into tonight. The air mass will become hotter and more humid Monday into Tuesday with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible.

The RH values will lower to 45 to 60 percent this afternoon and Monday afternoon and increase to 90 to 100 percent Monday morning with some dew and patchy fog formation.

The winds will be south to southwest today at 5 to 10 mph and become light and variable in direction at 5 mph or less tonight. The winds will be west to southwest at 10 mph or less on Monday.

HYDROLOGY. No widespread hydrological problems expected in the ALY Hydro Service Area /HSA/ the next several days into next weekend.

Forecast rainfall across the HSA the next 7 days ranges from around a tenth of an inch to around an inch and a half. Rainfall will be variable during this period due to isolated to scattered thunderstorms, but the highest amounts look to be in the eastern Catskills, Litchfield Hills and Berkshires.

The most widespread threat of showers and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday into Thursday with a slow moving cold front. Localized ponding of water or poor drainage flooding of low lying areas is possible where thunderstorms produce locally heavy downpours. No river flooding is forecast at this time.

Drier weather may return late in the week, if a frontal boundary remains south of the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . SND NEAR TERM . SND/Wasula SHORT TERM . Wasula LONG TERM . JPV AVIATION . BWR FIRE WEATHER . Wasula HYDROLOGY . SND/Wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 78 mi88 min SW 1 88°F 1016 hPa67°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY27 mi68 minSSW 515.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F66°F49%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSCH

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S4S3SE3Calm--------------------CalmCalmCalm--S3CalmCalmS5Calm
1 day agoE6E5E4CalmCalmCalm------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4SW3
2 days agoNW7N4W4W4W3Calm------------------CalmCalmCalm----SE5CalmE5E5

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sun -- 04:21 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:42 AM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:39 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:18 PM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.91.40.80.30.51.52.83.74.14.23.72.71.710.4-0.2-0.30.623.244.34.2

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sun -- 04:10 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:34 AM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:29 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:10 PM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.81.30.70.30.61.72.93.74.14.23.62.51.50.90.3-0.2-0.20.82.23.444.34.1

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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