Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mayfield, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:51PM Thursday March 4, 2021 4:24 PM EST (21:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:18AMMoonset 10:31AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayfield, NY
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location: 43.1, -74.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 042052 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 352 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

SYNOPSIS. It will remain chilly through the weekend, but only a few stray snow showers are expected. Temperatures are expected to finally moderate for next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Upper cut off in SE Canada retrograding slowly and upper impulses are rotating around it. Satellite imagery shows clearing across our region now, and clearing will continue through this evening. Then some midlevel clouds will sink south on the southern periphery of the upper low, as diffuse upper energy drops south. Most areas will see intervals of clouds, maybe trending toward mostly cloudy between midnight and daybreak. The mid Hudson Valley and NW CT maybe mostly clear much of the night depending on how far south the clouds get.

Winds will stay breezy overnight. So, with the clouds increasing and the winds, temperatures will not fall as much as they could. There could also be some isolated snow shower activity by daybreak in the southern Adirondacks. Lows in the teens with single numbers in northern areas. Wind chills will be below zero in most areas later tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. The upper cut off low in SE Canada will continue to be nearly stationary and sources of guidance/ensembles are trying to resolve additional pieces of upper energy rotating around the upper low that track south into our region, then rotate through and exit, with varying opinions on the timing. The general consensus is for one upper impulse to exit by midday Friday, with another upper impulse dropping south again Friday evening and night.

This upper energy should support more clouds and isolated to scattered snow shower activity, mainly in the southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley, as mean low layer flow through the boundary layer is northwest to north northwest. So, lake effect moisture should be confined to those areas. Highs Friday with continued breezy conditions in the 20s to lower 30s with upper teens to around 20 northern areas.

Upper trough associated with the upper cut off low in SE Canada amplifies a bit through Saturday with reinforcing cold air across our region. Intervals of clouds and sun continue but the winds should be less gusty. Highs in the 20s to lower 30s with mid teens to around 20 northern areas.

By Sunday, the upper low and upper troughing just begin to lift north and east as boundary layer temperatures just begin to warm. There should be increasing sunshine as well. Highs in the lower to mid 30s with mid to upper 20s higher terrain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Overall, tranquil weather is expected through the period. Warmer temperatures expected as we get into next week as upper-level troughing over the region is replaced with upper-level ridging for at least the first half of next week. A cold front may approach from the west towards the end of the period, bringing the chance for showers Wednesday night into Thursday.

We begin the period Sunday night under the influence of an upper- level trough and chilly temperatures. A 1032 mb high is expected to build into the region Sunday night in association with an upper- level ridge approaching from the west. Given the relatively weak pressure gradient and clear skies, expecting favorable conditions for radiational cooling with temperatures expected to drop into the single digits to near zero in the southern Adirondacks and single digits and teens elsewhere across the region.

The 500 mb ridge is expected to move overhead Monday. The influence of this ridge combined with that of surface high pressure should allow for quiet weather and clear skies through most of the day. Warm air advection and clear skies should allow for high temperatures 5-10F warmer than those on Sunday, with mid 30s to mid 40s expected across the region. Some clouds are expected Monday evening into Monday night in advance of an approaching 500 mb shortwave. This shortwave could lead to a few isolated snow showers across the southern Adirondacks Monday night into early Tuesday morning, especially in the W/NW flow upslope favored areas. However, given that this shortwave and the associated surface low are expected to pass well to our north, expecting weak forcing for ascent and therefore mainly dry conditions across the region otherwise.

We are once again expected to be under the influence of high pressure Tuesday into Wednesday as heights continue to rise Tuesday into Wednesday with the shortwave departing to the north and east. This should allow for high temperatures a few degrees warmer than Monday. GFS MOS suggests high temperatures getting into the 50s in portions of the Mid Hudson Valley Tuesday, although NBM MOS keeps temperatures in the 40s. Considering that the GFS has support from the Euro and CMC, have decided to lean warmer with high temperatures in the 50s for the Mid Hudson valley and 40s elsewhere, except in the higher terrain where temperatures may stay in the 30s.

Temperatures look to be even more spring-like next Wednesday, as we will be directly under the upper-level ridge. The surface high slides off the East Coast, resulting in southwesterly low-level winds and continued warm air advection into the region. Models are in good agreement that temperatures should climb into the 40s and 50s across the region, with the lower elevations of the valleys potentially reaching the low 60s.

A cold front is expected to approach from the west near the end of the period, but there is some uncertainty with regards to the timing of this feature. The GFS is more progressive as usual, bringing a chance for showers for Wednesday night and Thursday. The Euro is slower with the progression of this front, and keeps us dry through most of the day Thursday. Have therefore decided to compromise and include a chance for showers late Wednesday night into Thursday. The progression of this front will largely determine our weather for Thursday. A slower progression of the front would allow for temperatures in the low 60s Thursday for may of the valley locations, while a more GFS-like solution with showers and increased cloud cover would keep temperatures mainly in upper 40s to upper 50s. Regardless, there will be plenty of time to sort out the details over the next week.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A cold front will continue settling south of the TAF sites through mid morning. Gusty northwest winds will develop in the wake of the frontal passage for this afternoon into tonight. An upper level disturbance will also approach from the north late tonight.

Although mainly VFR conditions are expected through 12Z/Fri, a few periods of MVFR Cigs will remain possible through around 16Z/Thu at KALB and especially KPSF in the wake of the cold frontal boundary. Otherwise, Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL should lift by midday.

Some flurries may also occur through 15Z/Thu, mainly at KALB and KPSF, where a brief reduction to MVFR Vsbys is possible (best chances during this time at KPSF).

Mid level clouds will increase from north to south after sunset.

Winds will trend into the northwest to north and increase to 8-15 KT between 12Z-15Z/Thu, with some gusts up to 20-25 KT possible. Winds will then be mainly northwest to west and increase to 10-20 KT by early this afternoon, with gusts of 25-30 KT possible, especially at KALB and KPSF where a few gusts up to 35 KT could occur this afternoon and evening. These gusty winds should continue into this evening, with gust magnitudes decreasing slightly after midnight to mainly 20-25 KT.

Outlook .

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time and a dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly steady through the weekend.

During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above normal by later in the week. It should continue to be dry for the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and streams may show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next week due to the expected melting of the snowpack.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . NAS NEAR TERM . NAS SHORT TERM . NAS LONG TERM . Main/NAS AVIATION . MSE HYDROLOGY . NAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 78 mi54 min WSW 5.1 36°F 1009 hPa14°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY27 mi34 minW 17 G 2415.00 miFair32°F7°F34%1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSCH

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W7W4W5W6W6------------------W11
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1 day ago------W5W4NW4------------------NW4CalmW6W9W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Thu -- 03:12 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:58 AM EST     5.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:52 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:10 PM EST     4.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.710.50.10.41.63.34.65.45.75.34.22.921.30.60.30.92.33.74.54.84.63.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Thu -- 03:02 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:50 AM EST     5.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:42 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:02 PM EST     4.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.90.40.10.51.93.54.85.55.65.242.81.91.10.50.31.12.53.84.54.84.53.6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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