Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Utica, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Temperatures will trend warmer throughout much of the week, leading to an extended period of warmer than normal temperatures.

2) Rain will return midweek with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will move offshore leading to the development of a south to southwest flow pattern. As a result, both temperatures and the amount of the moisture will be on the increase. Modeled boundary temperatures have highs getting into the 80's for the next couple of days with some readings into the 90's Thursday and Friday. Given the moisture increase as well, heat index values have the potential to reach 95 in a few valley locations with some values of 95-100 on Friday. This takes into the account the warm bias of the NBM which continues to occur.

Temperatures look to fall off following a cold frontal passage on Saturday with a potential secondary cold frontal passage Sunday into Monday. This will gradually trend temperatures cooler by the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A warm frontal boundary looks to pass through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Enough lift and moisture look present for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Instability still looks a bit limited in this timeframe for strong to severe thunderstorms. However, PW values of 1.5-2 inches will possibly result in locally heavy downpours from any thunderstorms.

Wednesday night attention will turn to the potential for a MCS to dive southeast into the region from the Great Lakes. Some modeling has it decaying before it reaches our region. However, mid level instability could increase quite a bit due to a possible EML. 0-6KM bulk shear is looking more modest as well.

The atmosphere looks to become slightly capped during the day Thursday with 700 mb modeled temperatures rising to around 11C.
This should keep the region mainly hot and dry after any potential MCS or it's leftovers move through.

Our next cold front has trended a bit stronger and more progressive today. Enough lift and instability should be present for more showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and night. Even the more conservative GFS shows a decent amount of surface CAPE. Timing of the frontal boundary is still somewhat uncertain, if it passes through overnight that would lower any threat of strong to severe thunderstorms for our region. Another cold front Sunday and Monday may lead to a few showers and thunderstorms as well.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Most of the region should be VFR tonight, but high pressure overhead and mostly clear skies may allow for patchy valley fog to develop. ELM's cross over temperature is around 57F, with a predicted overnight low right around 55-57F expected. Skies are clear now, and should allow for good raditional cooling. For this taf set, a tempo was included for IFR fog at ELM from 06-09Z early this morning. A brief period of IFR fog was included from 09-11Z.

After any patchy morning clouds or fog dissipates, it will be VFR areawide with just a few high level clouds (between 150-250 ft agl) expected. Winds will be light, generally southwest up to 10 kts, especially after 14z Tuesday.

Outlook:

Tuesday evening...VFR.

Tuesday night through Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.