Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Utica, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Lake effect snow will continue through the early morning hours.
Drier air will work its way into the region later this morning with lake effect snow showers gradually come to an end early this afternoon. Additional accumulations of 1 to 4 inches will be possible in the heaviest bands. The advisory for Steuben County has ended but the rest of the headlines will remain in effect until 7am.
Temperatures will max out in the 30s today. Tonight will start out dry but a low pressure system will approach the region as it moves into the Great Lakes Region. With temperatures falling into the 20s, any precipitation with this system will be snow. For tonight, most accumulating snowfall is expected north of the Southern Tier resulting in a half inch or less. A narrow band of higher moisture sets up over North-Central NY, so N. Oneida could see around 2 inches by sunrise Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The aforementioned low will continue to move across the Great Lakes and just north of the region on Sunday. Snow will transition to rain or a rain/snow mix as temperatures warm up into the 30s and 40s.
Despite the warmer temperatures, gusty winds will bring daytime wind chills down into the 20s and 30s. A dry slot will move into the region following the passing of a cold front leading to more scattered coverage from the Southern Tier and areas southward.
Further north, wrap around moisture and northwesterly flow will support lake enhanced snow showers and additional accumulations overnight. Total accumulation between Sunday and Sunday night will be 3 to 7 inches in N. Oneida. With these totals, a winter weather advisory has been issued from early Sunday morning through early Monday morning. Temperatures drop into the teens and 20s.

A weak ridge of high pressure moves into the region Monday with the low moving off into the Canadian Maritimes. Winds will remain blustery to start the day but gradually become calmer through the evening hours. Highs will only be in the 20s and 30s. A weak wave will move into the region late Monday night/early Tuesday morning and bring a chance for light snow showers. Little to no accumulation is expected. Overnight lows will be in the teens to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A system will originate out of the Southeast and move up the coast on Tuesday as the aforementioned weak wave continues to move through. As mentioned in past forecast updates, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this system. Looking at the deterministic guidance, the GFS remains the fastest and wettest compared to the CMC and ECMWF. Ensemble guidance all show widespread accumulating snowfall with this system, though if the end result is like the GFS, then there would be rain or a wintry mix for the far southern counties in our CWA As we get closer to the this system, the details should become more clear as solutions come into better agreement. Staying consistent with the previous update, this system is highlighted in the HWO.

This system moves out of the region by Wednesday with weak high pressure taking over. Cool, northwest flow may support some light lake effect snow over portions of Central NY. The quiet conditions will be short-lived as a frontal system drops south Thursday, though similarly with the early week system, the exact timing is uncertain.
Then behind the front, another weak disturbance looks to move through by the end of the work week.

Temperatures will be below average throughout the long term period, though become even colder following the frontal passage late in the week. There is potential for widespread single digits Thursday night/Friday morning.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through most of this evening, although brief MVFR restrictions cannot be completely ruled out at KSYR and KITH due to some lingering lake effect clouds and flurries. The next system will move in late tonight and will bring snow showers and associated restrictions to Central NY. Confidence in restrictions is highest at KSYR and KRME, but brief MVFR visby restrictions cannot be ruled out late tonight/early Sunday morning at KITH, KBGM, and KELM as well. By late Sunday morning, MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions are possible as all terminals except for at KSYR.

LLWS also cannot be ruled out at KSYR late Sunday morning into the afternoon. There is also a possibility for LLWS at KRME during that same timeframe, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF there.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Late Monday night through Tuesday...Snow possible and associated restrictions.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR; spotty lake effect snow showers are possible around KSYR and KRME.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially at the Central NY terminals.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ009.