Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mattydale, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
950 PM Update:

Increased PoPs from Binghamton north and west Monday morning and into the early afternoon hours as a band of steady precipitation is likely to form in this location on the NW side of a developing low pressure system. The CAMs have come into better agreement on this area seeing steadier precipitation, so increased QPF amounts as well, and even went above the latest NBM for PoPs. There still remains the possibility for wet snow flakes to mix in over the higher elevations of the northern Susquehanna region, Catskills and S. Tug Hill plateau on Monday; not expecting any accumulation though with surface temperatures and wet bulb temps above freezing.

715 PM update:

Scattered to numerous showers continue to stream over the area this evening, with isolated thunderstorms still possible from the Twin Tiers south across NE PA into the overnight hours.
There are also areas of fog out there which may continue overnight. Temperatures were adjusted down 1-3 degrees with this update. The main uncertainty in the near term forecast is how much wrap around rain will be present on Monday, and exactly how long will it linger. There remain differences in the CAMs such as the 18z HRRR, 22z RAP and 18z 3km NAM. For now, took a blended approach with this guidance for the official forecast grids. It will become colder aloft after the surface low and 850mb low move northeast of our CWA (near Albany) by late Monday morning or midday. As 850mb temperatures fall to around -3C in the afternoon it is not out of the question that some wet snow flakes begin mixing in over the higher elevations as the precipitation shield slowly lifts northeast and exits.
Temperatures will only be in the upper 30s to mid-40s early Monday afternoon over Central NY...with 40s to around 50 for NE PA.

300 PM Update:

A surface low is moving through northern PA this afternoon with a sharp temperature gradient from upper 60s in Hazleton PA to low 50s in Scranton PA. Thunderstorms have developed along this warm front and will move through NEPA and parts of the Southern Tier through the evening. Most of these storms are north of the warm front so the cells should stay elevated with some small hail in the stronger storms. The surface low moves into the Gulf of Maine overnight with cold NW flow behind the front as a long wave trough digs in. Water vapor imagery shows a robust shortwave in Northern Wisconsin this afternoon and that should swing around the base of the trough late tonight into tomorrow morning and provide lift for continued rain showers across the region so chances of precipitation were kept higher through the day tomorrow.

Across the Finger Lakes region, chances of precipitation were raised as 850 mb temperatures fall to near -5C tomorrow with surface temperatures of Lake Ontario up around 17C so there will be plenty of lake induced CAPE to generate widespread rain showers. Thunder was left out of the weather grids for now across CNY and the Finger Lakes but there is small potential as cold air continues to advect in with higher amounts of lake induced CAPE develop late Monday into Monday night.

Forecast soundings across CNY showed that the freezing level will be getting low for this time of the year, falling down to near 2000 feet above sea level. Forecast soundings are saturated so the wet bulb will stay above freezing for the lower elevations but a few wet snow flakes may mix in with the precipitation at elevations above 1000 feet for CNY Monday night.

Frost Monday night may be tough to get as we will have wind and clouds as well as precipitation for much of the region. Higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos above 2000 feet may get below freezing thanks to the cold air advection but radiational cooling is unlikely for lower elevations.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
310 PM Update...

An upper-level trough will sweep through the region during the mid- week period, putting CNY and NEPA under cool, northwest flow.
Wraparound moisture and multiple passing shortwaves will enhance lake effect precipitation. Near surface conditions will be warm enough for just rain showers during daytime hours. Surface temperatures will climb into the 40s and low 50s. Strong low-level flow will be able to mix to the surface and result in blustery conditions across the region. Conditions will feel much cooler than what the thermometer will ready. Also, peak gusts of 20 to 25 mph will be possible.

Cooler air will continue to filter in from the north. 850mb temperatures will fall to -4 to -6C. These cooler conditions will be favorable for rain/snow mix or even just snow, mainly in the higher elevations in CNY. A trace to a couple tenths of accumulation will be possible. Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s and 30s overnight. Patchy frost may be possible in far southern NEPA if skies can stay clear long enough for temperatures to quickly fall.
There is also some uncertainty if winds will be light enough for frost to develop.

Wednesday will start out chilly, at least it will feel that way as breezy winds will result in wind chills in the 20s and 30s as many are heading out the door for school and work. Unfortunately, the cool, northwest flow will remain in place despite a ridge beginning to build into the region. As a result, temperatures only warm up into the 40s and potentially low 50s for some in NEPA. Lake effect precipitation will also continue with any snow transitioning back to rain by the afternoon hours.

High pressure builds into the region Wednesday night, bringing drier air into the region. With the trough moving out of the region, this drier air will replace the wrap-around moisture that will be present throughout the first half of the week. With limited moisture, precipitation is expected to come to an end late Wednesday tonight.
Despite the cooler air starting to retreat to the northeast, good radiational cooling will take place as skies begin to clear out, leading to lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Since winds will be calm, conditions will be favorable for frost.

For winds this period, the latest NBM guidance was lower than previous runs and forecasts, at least through Wednesday daytime.
With a sharp pressure gradient and likely deep mixing, the previous forecast was blended in with the latest NBM guidance. To better collaborate with neighboring offices, NBM 10th percentile was also used to increase the gusts. For Wednesday night, just NBM guidance was used.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
310 PM Update...

With a ridge of high pressure in control throughout the long term period, conditions will be mostly dry and temperatures trend warmer.
Canadian model guidance does continue to have the lake effect precipitation lasting into Thursday as well. While that may have to be something to consider in future updates, this update continues to keep Thursday dry as there will be quite a bit of dry air to overcome for this to happen. While Sunday is looking mainly dry as well, the next system will be just outside of our region. If timing were to trend quicker, this would then be the next chance for showers.

Temperatures return to the 50s and 60s during this period.
Widepsread 60s are expected during the weekend. Overnight lows won't see as much of a warm up but 40s will be possible by Saturday night after a week of lows in the 30s or colder. Clear skies may allow temps to fall cooler than forecasted during the overnight hours.

AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Unsettled conditions and varying restrictions, both to ceilings and visibility, will be in place through much of the TAF period as an area of low pressure and trailing cold front will be working its way through the area this evening. This low will be followed by another low pressure system currently located over the Upper Midwest which is expected to rotate into the region early tomorrow morning. Scattered showers are expected to be around most terminals this evening before there is a little bit of a lull before the next disturbance approaches with an uptick in showers around 08-10Z. There can be a spotty thunderstorm this evening near and south of the low track, and a TEMPO is in for BGM with recent lightning strikes recorded nearby. AVP will be monitored closely with storms currently over central PA. If they hold together, thunder will be possible between 01-03Z.
Ceilings will vary across the terminals with MVFR and worse conditions. AVP will be VFR initially before MVFR conditions are expected to develop at times overnight.

Winds will be increasing tomorrow morning as they shift out of the northwest with gusts of 20-25 knots possible. Improving ceilings are expected tomorrow afternoon and into the evening.

Outlook

Monday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers and associated occasional restrictions at Central NY terminals.
Mainly VFR at KAVP.

Thursday into Friday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.