Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mattydale, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
605 PM Update...
Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in a few of the typically more vulnerable pockets, as already mentioned below. However, even aiming towards low end of model guidance keeps temperatures rather marginal for frost. National Blend of Models and High Resolution Ensemble Forecast guidance paint less than 25 percent chance for temperatures below 37 degrees for almost the entire area tonight. Add the fact that we recently had a lot of rain, which will contribute to dewpoint recovery under the inversion tonight via evapotranspiration, and the risk for frost is quite limited.

Small tweak made to further slow the increase/thickening of clouds Monday. It still will occur, but latest models are holding back a little and thus at least filtered sunshine should hold most of the day. Also, confidence is now very high that any encroaching rain chances will wait until well after midnight Monday night.

Previous discussion...
High pressure over the region will lead to a very favorable setup for radiational cooling tonight. With clear skies and light winds temperatures should fall off fairly quickly this evening. Low temperatures look to end up around 40 with a few valley locations in the mid to upper 30's. Did add mention for patchy frost in a few areas but the temperature values look fairly marginal.

High pressure starts to move east of the region and offshore on Monday. This will slowly start to draw moisture northward from a low pressure system in the southeast. So clouds will be on the increase late in the day. Still looking like another fairly warm and dry day with enough sunshine for most locations to get into the 70's.

A broad area of low pressure slowly moves up the coast Monday night. Enough moisture eventually comes north for the possibility a few light rain showers toward sunrise Tuesday morning. With clouds, temperatures look much warmer in the 50's.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
220 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the next round of showers and a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

The synoptic pattern over the Northeast US will initially be defined by a narrow ridge axis extending north/south from 200 mi off the Mid Atlantic coast into southern Quebec Tuesday morning. This ridge is what will have kept the region mostly quiet on Monday. However, as this axis moves to the E/NE the next incoming low pressure system over the TN Valley will begin to move across the Apalachin Mtns and into the southern Mid Atlantic region Tuesday morning. A weak warm front extending east from the surface low over the OH Valley will lift slowly north across the Carolinas into VA/MD/PA area. The air mass south of the warm front will have more sufficient moisture associated with it (PWs around 1-1.5 inches), in addition to a stronger southerly component to the wind field.

Large scale forcing for ascent from the embedded short waves rotating northward around the east side of the low, combined with the moisture and layer lifting along the warm front will induce rain showers across eastern PA and central NY through the day Tuesday and into Wednesday.

There is some uncertainty with respect to how quickly the moisture/clouds and eventual rain moves in from the south on Tuesday, which will have an impact on how high surface temperatures get in the afternoon. The most uncertainty is realized over central and southern NY, which marks the northern edge of the deep moisture and drier air to the north. Areas of the Finger Lakes and northern Catskills into the wrn Mohawk Valley and lake plain are expected to warm into the lower to mid 70s, while from the southern tier of NY into ne PA, highs should only reach into the mid to upper 60s.

The cutoff upper low in the OH Valley will lift into the Great Lakes on Wednesday and allow the stream of higher moisture air to the south to continue to be displaced into the Northeast US.
Although PWs are only expected to be roughly 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal...so not expecting a high probability of heavy rainfall.

There also only appears to be a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms, on Tuesday and Wed afternoon. With surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s and temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s, the air mass will only be able to generate low amounts of instability. Can't rule out a few pop up weak thunderstorms in the afternoon, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
220 PM update...

The upper low over the Great Lakes washes out Wed night and Thu, and phases westward with the next incoming low pressure system in the Northern Plains. The ridge to the northeast will try to build back in on Thu and keep conditions overall, generally quiet. A few showers or storms could pop up under the ridge Thu afternoon, but the main concern will be for increasing temperatures. Highs on Thu will be topping out in the mid to upper 70s over most of the region.

More of the temperature and precip uncertainty arrives late Thu and into Fri as the Upper Midwest low pressure system either picks up speed and sweeps through the Great Lakes or holds back to the west for a bit. These pattern differences produce varying degrees of uncertainty with respect to both temperatures and precipitation. Temperature spreads (10-90th percentile) on Fri and Sat this week are on the order of 10-15 degF. Highs could be in the mid to upper 60s, or in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Right now, confidence is leaning toward the upper end, with the NBM indicating probabilities of temperatures greater than 80 deg F on Friday upwards of 70-90 pct.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR throughout the TAF period with mainly light winds.

Outlook...

Monday night...Ceilings forming and lowering, but still VFR.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Rain showers and occasional restrictions likely KAVP and at times KELM-KBGM-KITH. Isolated thunder possible.

Thursday through Friday...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunder possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.