Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Liverpool, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
235 PM Update:

A stationary front continues to be situated across southwestern PA and the Mid-Atlantic states. With our region on the north side of this frontal boundary, extensive cloud cover is present for most of the area. Most of the area has remained dry the majority of today, but scattered showers are present across parts of Northeast PA. With the stable environment, any thunderstorms have remained south of our area/more across Western and Central PA.

Isolated to showers are once again possible overnight, with the greatest chance being across Northeast PA again. That being said, the majority of the area will likely remain dry. However, with plenty of low-level moisture in place, patchy fog and low stratus is expected to be present for many areas. Lows are expected to be in the 50s.

Sunday has been trending a bit drier with the stationary front slowly drifting southward through the Mid-Atlantic states. There still could be some isolated showers around, but the large majority of the area should remain dry. Cloudy skies in the morning should lead to some breaks of sun in the afternoon, especially across Central NY. Farther to the south, clouds may persist through most of the day like today. Temperatures will again be a bit below normal with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

More of the same is expected Sunday night with a few isolated showers (most areas remaining dry) and patchy fog or low stratus. Lows are expected to be in the 50s once again.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
240 PM Update...

Zonal flow aloft keeps conditions moderate on Monday. Lingering moisture could help set off a few showers, but otherwise there could be some dry breaks inbetween. Southwest flow settles in allowing temperatures to gradually increase as the week progresses.
Mondays highs will be comfortable ranging in the low to mid 70s in the afternoon with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Similar conditions carry into Tuesday morning with mostly dry conditions expected. Some lingering low level moisture will likely keep clouds around. A short wave then moves into the region by Tuesday afternoon brining a chance of showers. Highs warm into the mid to upper 70s during the day Tuesday with average overnight temperatures in low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
240 PM Update...

A transition to weak ridging occurs during this period as an upper level trough over the midwest shifts eastward by Wednesday. A developing southwesterly flow will transport moisture into the region ahead of a shortwave disturbance, initiation showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. The upper trough continues to deepen as it moves east on Thursday, enhancing southerly flow and increasing moisture transport. By late Thursday night, a cold front will sweep through the area, bringing a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Showers will continue Friday as model guidance suggests another wave moves in.
Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday via southerly flow. Temperatures cool Friday behind the front as northwesterly follows.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low clouds will continue to bring at least MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions to most terminals this afternoon and evening with IFR restrictions likely at KBGM. While model guidance also hints at IFR ceilings at KAVP, the predominant wind direction is east/southeasterly, which is a downsloping flow and therefore IFR restrictions there are much less likely.
Clouds are beginning to thin out a bit at KSYR and KRME, which will likely result of a window of VFR conditions by later this afternoon.

By late tonight/early Sunday morning, fog and low stratus will result in widespread IFR-or-worse restrictions, with the exceptions likely being at KAVP and KSYR. VLIFR restrictions will be possible at KELM and KBGM, with higher confidence at KELM. Gradual improvement is then expected by late Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible in isolated to scattered showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increase, especially each afternoon. Occasional restrictions likely.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.