Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brighton, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Ridging aloft and at the surface will continue to build into the region overnight. For those interested in viewing the Northern Lights, skies have cleared out across Western NY this evening, with some lingering patchy clouds southeast of Lake Ontario.
Expecting mainly clear skies overnight. The breaks in cloud cover should be enough radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the lower terrain and as cold as the lower 30s across interior sections of the western Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region. Frost formation continues to look likely across these areas where a Frost Advisory is in effect as outlined below.

High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes, will settle southeast into the mid-Atlantic Friday. Despite the southeastward settle, the surface ridge will remain across the area and therefore support the dry weather to continue. Meanwhile, low pressure dropping south across eastern Quebec, will increase the pressure gradient across the eastern Great Lakes supporting a brisk southwest wind gusting as high as 40 mph. Not only will the create a breezy conditions Friday afternoon downwind of the lakes, warm air will advect into the region, supporting temperatures to climb up into a range of 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Friday night will begin dry, but a moisture starved cold front will be dropping down across our region. Not much in the way of precipitation, but we will notice an uptick in winds as the pressure gradient tightens...with southwest gusts into the 30 mph range.
These winds will diminish as they veer to the northwest through the night behind the front.

Dry Saturday with the front to our south, but this frontal boundary will return northward Saturday night and Sunday with period of rain upon a now saturated lower atmosphere. Strong frontogentic forcing may bring around a half inch of precipitation or more late Saturday night through Sunday evening. Depending upon the track of a surface wave along this front, a little instability ahead of the low may allow for a few rumbles of thunder, especially towards southern zones.

A digging upper level low will maintain showers Sunday night, especially near the lakeshores where the leading edge of colder air aloft contributing to lake effect rain, and upslope terrain enhance precipitation chances.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A deepening mid-level trough is advertised to sweep in across the lower Great Lakes by Monday which will bring about below normal temperatures through atleast midweek. Not only will it promote cool to chilly conditions...but also unsettle weather with scattered showers and lake induced showers that will get occasionally enhanced by embedded shortwaves in the WNW flow. Add to that...it might even become cold enough (850H -2C to -6C) to support some snowflakes to mix in from time to time...especially at night and early in the morning for the North country and even the higher terrain of the Southern Tier.

Wednesday and beyond...high pressure building east will gradually bring drier weather and a warming trend as we head into the tail end of the week.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mainly VFR flight conditions tonight. There will be patchy lake effect clouds with bases 3-5k feet east and southeast of Lake Ontario which may drop a few spots to MVFR, but expecting VFR at our TAF sites.

High pressure will provide VFR weather for Friday, but it will be windy, especially across the Niagara Frontier where winds will gust to around 30 knots at KBUF and KIAG.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...VFR, but a chance for showers Friday night with MVFR flight conditions.

Sunday through Tuesday...Restriction possible with showers likely.

MARINE
High pressure over the lower Great Lakes overnight will support light winds and minimal wave action.

High pressure will drift southeast Friday, as low pressure settles southeast across eastern Quebec. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the lakes, supporting strong southwest winds which will likely require small craft headlines Friday and Friday night. On Lake Ontario, there may even be a brief period of gales or gale force gusts Friday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for NYZ008-019>021.
MARINE...None.