Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for York Harbor, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Cold and dry weather continues. As of 08z, it's 20 below zero at both Whitefield and Berlin NH airports. A jet streak moving by to our south will likely allow for an increase in clouds as the left front quad passes through the region late this morning into the afternoon hours. It should remain dry however.
Otherwise, no big changes to temperatures with highs around 20 at the coast and around 10 in the mountains.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
Another cold and mostly clear night on tap for tonight. High pressure crests overhead so went lower on the mins than what most guidance has for tonight. May need another cold wx advisory for the mountains tonight, but current grids have us a little higher in the apparent temperature department.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Evening update...
A large anticyclone will remain parked over the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday with the core of the Arctic air remaining over our region. Thereafter, a return flow around the high will lead to warm air advection and increasing clouds Wednesday night. This will allow temperatures to be on the increase on Thursday after one more chilly night.

A few scattered snow showers remain possible on Thursday and Friday as latest operational models and ensemble solutions indicate an upper level trough will cross the region. However, most areas will remain dry. A very gradual warming trend will continue with temperatures approaching seasonable norms by Friday.

High pressure will allow for sunshine for the start of the weekend with another weak trough bringing a couple snow showers to the region by Sunday. The slow warming trend will continue with 30s possible over southern sections for highs by Sunday.

Prev Disc...
Expansive high pressure crests over the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday, and even though it will still be cold with highs mostly in the teens, it shouldn't feel quite as bad out with winds being a tad lighter and skies mostly-partly sunny.

With the high overhead, skies may be clear enough Wednesday evening to offer good radiational cooling (at least for a while), especially with the fresh snow. It's uncertain how cold it will get though as temperatures will probably level off at some point as a weak upper trough shifts the high east and also brings increasing mid and high clouds. For now, northern areas are still forecast to get below zero while temps might be able to stay in the positive single digits, and lows may occur early in the night (or even the evening).

The increasing clouds from the upper trough look to linger into Thursday, and we could see a bit of light snow or flurries from this, but very little to no accumulation is expected with models showing quite a bit of low-level dry air. With high pressure to the east, southerly flow will bring temperatures back into the 20s for most, but winds will be somewhat breezy again.

Once the wave passes late Thursday, there could be a period of upslope snow showers in the mountains through early Friday, but otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected Fri-Sat as high pressure builds back in and daytime highs continue to moderate back into the mid 20s to lower 30s. The operational GFS/ECMWF indicate a couple of waves/fronts possible Sunday into Monday, potentially bringing some light precip to the area, but there is little support within the ensembles to deviate from the slight chance NBM PoPs.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term...VFR conditions expected for today through Tuesday.

Long Term...Mainly dry and VFR Wednesday through Saturday. A weak disturbance may produce brief instances of MVFR ceilings and perhaps light snow on Thursday, but chances look low. Once this disturbance passes, potential MVFR ceilings and a low chance of snow showers continue at HIE through Thursday night into early Friday.

MARINE
Short Term...SCA for the open waters through today expected to subside somewhat tonight. Freezing spray looks to be with us into tonight, with some better icing expected overnight in the Pen Bay area.

Long Term...Building high pressure toward the Northeast will produce a northwest flow across the waters Wednesday that will shift to the southwest and increase on Thursday as the high shifts east and a weak low crosses the waters. This will probably produce SCA conditions over the outer waters Thurs- Thurs night before winds diminish Fri-Sat as another high pressure builds in. A cold front looks to approach the waters around Sunday with SCA conditions possible again as winds begin to increase Saturday night.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MEZ007>009.
NH...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NHZ001>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ150- 152-154., and seas remain near 5 ft, and although winds may slacken a bit later tonight, should come up to around 25 kt again on Tuesday. Freezing Spray Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for ANZ150>152.