Croswell, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Croswell, MI

May 28, 2024 11:18 PM EDT (03:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM
Moonrise 12:17 AM   Moonset 9:30 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 942 Pm Edt Tue May 28 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening - .

Rest of tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.

Wednesday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.

Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Croswell, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 290255 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1055 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather builds in during Wednesday which continues through late week.

- Temperatures drop below average throughout the mid week period before warming up again into the weekend.

AVIATION

Lingering high based showers diminish through the early morning hours. Otherwise, extensive cloud generally between 6 and 10k ft will mark the overnight period. Despite the recent rainfall, sufficient gradient flow from the northwest limits fog potential for the early morning period. A general increase in diurnal cu on Wednesday as moisture associated with a low pressure system to south slowly vacates the region. This may trigger a low coverage of showers/t-storms of limited duration across mainly the Detroit corridor Wednesday afternoon. Winds prevailing from the north Wednesday, with some intermittent gusts to 20 knots possible.

For DTW/D21 Convection...A brief window for isolated thunderstorm development will exist Wednesday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet through through Wednesday.

* Low for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 403 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

DISCUSSION...

Convection flared up on schedule early in the diurnal heating cycle this afternoon in favored locations off the higher terrain of northern Lower Mi and within the lingering early morning altocu south of I-69. Consolidating and converging outflows favor new development filling in along the M-59 to I-69 corridors while ongoing activity plays out through late afternoon and evening. Mid afternoon hourly mesoanalysis measures 0-1 km MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg which is the more likely convective response due to the uncapped profile vs 1000-1500 J/kg surface based CAPE. At least one report of pea size hail came in from a brief reflectivity hotspot and this will be the primary storm mode through peak instability as freezing level holds at a relatively low 8 kft level. Slow-moving shower and thunderstorm clusters also present a localized heavy rainfall threat as the profile is uncapped and also moisture rich with PW hovering around 1 inch. Predictability on location or duration remain low given the random nature of outflow driven redevelopment expected through the event.

The component of surface based convection fades by midnight north of I-69 while transitioning into a band of showers and a rumble of thunder associated with the upstream mid level circulation. The system over the upper Midwest this afternoon dives into IN/OH while keeping showers churned across the southern border region late tonight into Wednesday morning. Upstream satellite presentation this afternoon offers confidence in model strength and track projections as leading deformation matures into the primary source of forcing.
The mid level circulation and surface reflection track far enough south of the Michigan border for a setup of the 850-700 mb moisture axis/theta-e ridge along/south of I-96 from which the consensus model QPF axis holds south of I-94, and even south of the Michigan border in many solutions.

Some residual showers linger near the southern border through Wednesday morning while clouds hold across the rest of Lower Mi into the afternoon. Today's models are bullish on a broad region of cool surface high pressure gaining dominance under lingering cyclonic flow aloft. This maintains a greater cloud component until Wednesday night when deep layer subsidence take hold to bring a clearing trend. Below normal temperatures then become the weather focus for the late week period, mainly at night, and despite nearly full sun through Thursday. A few of the more sheltered and typically colder locations could touch 40 for low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning before readings rebound to finish the week.

MARINE...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon-evening, particularly along and south of Saginaw Bay.
Isolated gusts in these storms may exceed 35 knots alongside frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail as they track southeast across the marine zones. Showers and thunderstorms continue through Wednesday morning before the upper trough axis moves through mid-day. On the broader scale, waves and gusts subside as the pressure gradient relaxes briefly tonight. High pressure then gains influence through the day Wednesday, veering flow to the north with modest increase in winds/waves toward Small Craft Advisory thresholds again by Wednesday morning. Given headline expirations this afternoon will defer additional issuances to the evening update, noting that Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed beginning Wednesday morning for Saginaw Bay and portions of the Lake Huron nearshore. High pressure holds overhead through the rest of the week with quieter conditions anticipated.

HYDROLOGY...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be active this afternoon and this evening with locally heavy rainfall. Spotty totals near a half inch are possible while basin average totals remain light to moderate, generally in the one quarter to one third inch range from this afternoon through sunrise Wednesday. Minor flooding in prone areas or ponding of water on roadways can be expected mainly late this afternoon and early this evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ421- 422-441.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ442- 443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 13 mi49 min WNW 8G11 57°F 29.9453°F
PBWM4 13 mi49 min 57°F 29.94
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 14 mi49 min 58°F 29.94
AGCM4 35 mi49 min 55°F 58°F29.95
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 40 mi79 min W 5.8 57°F 57°F1 ft29.95
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi79 min SSW 1.9G4.1 60°F 29.99


Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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No data


Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPHN ST CLAIR COUNTY INTL,MI 16 sm23 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy55°F52°F88%29.98
CYZR SARNIA CHRIS HADFIELD,CN 18 sm18 minWNW 079 smOvercast57°F54°F88%29.96
Link to 5 minute data for KPHN


Wind History from PHN
(wind in knots)
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Detroit, MI,




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