Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Syracuse, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
200 PM Update

This afternoon and evening will feature scattered cumulus clouds with broken high cirrus clouds above that layer. This should allow partly sunny conditions to continue, although the cirrus cloud layer may become thicker heading into the evening hours.
There is a low (10-15%) chance for an isolated shower or storm to develop over the higher terrain, but overall it appears likely too dry for this to occur.

Most of tonight should be quiet, with partly cloudy skies late this evening through the overnight period. Some of the latest hi-res CAMs guidance continues to show at least some potential for an MCS and convective squall line turning right, and moving south into our forecast area after about 3-4 AM early Sunday morning. There remains a great deal of uncertainty with this mesoscale feature, and what track it ultimately takes.
Maintained slight chance to chance PoPs for showers and thunderstorms in the 4 AM to Noon timeframe from about Binghamton north and east. Some of the guidance even hints at more showers and storm developing and dropping all the way south though the Twin Tiers and NE PA. Elevated CAPE values will be drastically increasing late tonight into Sunday morning, and eventually becoming surface based. SPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms in this late night to Sunday period.
0-6km shear is strong Sunday morning, up to 50 kts. The main threats would be strong wind gusts and hail with these storms if they can make their way into our area. By 5AM Sunday morning, 12z NAM soundings are showing MUCAPE of up to 2500 J/kg coming into the NW half of our CWA, and by 8 AM that increases to 3500 J/kg as mid level lapse rates approach 8C/km in the EML environment. If any storms can get going in this environment they could have extremely high storm tops, reaching 50k ft or higher. DCAPE values also reach 850 J/kg, so despite a minor low level stable layer, if the winds can break through this, storms could certainly produce isolated damaging winds as well.

Heading into late Sunday morning and the afternoon it is looking hot and muggy with 500 mb heights getting up near 596 dm which is anomalously high. Dry air above the mixed layer may help limit dew points to the upper 60s and low 70s but if dry air does not mix in or evapotranspiration is able to keep up with mixing, dew points may be in the low to mid 70s. Highs Sunday push into the upper 80s to mid 90s so widespread head indices of 100+ are likely. Limiting factors to the heat is that forecast soundings do have weak capping. In previous similar set ups with very strong ridging and high heat and humidity, showers and thunderstorms were able to form in the late morning and early afternoon and that ended up dropping temperatures before they were able to get as warm as forecast so that could occur again. This is looking like a possibility on Sunday, as some slight chance PoPs were added into the forecast based on the latest QPF trends in the NBM and SPC's outlook.

Heat advisories still looks good as many locations will see peak heat indices between about 95 to 104 degrees late Sunday afternoon. There seems to be no need to upgrade any zones to extreme heat warnings for Sunday at this time...especially due to the uncertainty with clouds and pop up showers and storms mentioned above.

Sunday night is quiet and muggy with high pressure building over the region. Overnight lows only drop into the 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
320 PM Update:

A very strong ridge will be in place during the entire short term forecast period, which will result in dry weather and plenty of sunshine. This ridge will also result in hot temperatures. Highs on both Monday and Tuesday will be in the 90s, with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As is typically the case, the NBM appeared to be a bit too high on dew points, so lowered dew points by a few degrees. Either way, heat indices will be in the mid 90s to mid 100s. Overnight lows will be in the 70s, so there won't be much relief overnight. Heat Advisories remain in place and it is possible some of those may need to be upgraded to Extreme Heat Warnings if confidence in exceeding 105 degree heat indices increases.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
320 PM Update:

After a dry early part of the week, the strong ridge begins to break down and drop a bit south on Wednesday. As a result, a series of shortwaves may be able to ride along the northern periphery of the ridge and spark some scattered showers and thunderstorms each day starting on Wednesday, especially each afternoon. This will also be aided by a stationary frontal boundary relatively nearby. This will all also result in slightly cooler temperatures, although highs will still be slightly above normal for at least Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
230 PM Update

VFR TAFs are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours.
There could be a few thunderstorms pop up this afternoon near ELM, BGM, and AVP but they are too isolated to include in the TAFs at this time. RME and SYR may see thunderstorms after 9Z tonight into Sunday morning if they can drop far enough south.
PROB30 TSRA groups were added to these two terminals for this potential. LLWS is likely from about 03-12z tonight into Sunday morning at most taf sites. Southwest winds up to 40-45 kts at 2k ft agl area forecast.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon...Slight chance for isolated thunderstorms, otherwise sunny and VFR.

Monday thru Tuesday...High pressure with VFR expected.

Wednesday and Thursday....Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms around with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.