DISCUSSION
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

OVERVIEW: Upper level ridge sits overhead today and is still on pace to slide east over the weekend. The upper level flow then shifts to broad ridging for the new week, a consistent signal in both the GEFS and EPS. Warmer, more moist air pools northward under the ridge and a return to "summery" air should be planned for this weekend, through most/if not all of the new week. The pattern shift will also allow for shortwave troughs to have a better opportunity to spin near/through the area - and rain chances return to the forecast as a result.

How long the broad ridging holds is a question. Some mixed messages between the GEFS and EPS suite of members, which shows in the latest run of the WPC cluster analysis. The bulk of the EPS members hold onto the broad ridging through the weekend while more of the GEFS suite suggest reamplification of the west coast ridge. Sensible weather outcomes would be a continuation of the warmth in the EPS but cooler/less humid via the GEFS. A fair amount of volatility in the models that far out at this time, keeping confidence low in which way to trend. That said, there does seem to be more support to hold the broad ridging pattern trough the weekend. We'll see...

TEMPS: say "hello" to summer, she's back. Warmer, more moist air will start to pool northward this weekend and settle in for the new week. The EPS suite continues to be the warmest of the long term guidance with 75% of its members pushing high temps into the upper 80s/lower 90s. GEFS is a few/several degrees cooler - but still at or above the late July/early August normals. With dewpoints expected to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s, tack on at least another 5 degrees for what it will "feel like" (heat index). Not currently trending hot enough where headlines would be needed (heat advisories), but certainly ample enough heat that those with outdoor plans should prepare for it. More uncertainty moving into next weekend with the differences in the models sending mixed messages.

RAIN CHANCES: med/long range guidance continues to spin bits of shortwave energy northeast across the region for Sun/Mon as the ridge exits east. Kind of a hodgepodge of pieces of energy which may or may not coalesce into one more cohesive (and stronger) shortwave.
Still, mix of forcing and favorable airmass look to trigger areas of showers/storms Sun through Mon. PWs upwards 2" and warm cloud depths near 4 kft suggest a locally heavy rain potential. Strong/severe risk is more nebulous with timing of the system(s) playing a larger role. There will be instability to work with but deep layer shear may hold farther west.

After Monday, the models show a variety of potential rain makers for the region, with differences in timing/placment/strength. Which day(s) harbor the higher chances aren't clear and will roll with the model blend for now.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR conditions expected. South and southeast winds overnight before shifting to southwest winds by Saturday afternoon.
Current conditions have some lower level clouds, between 2500ft and 5000ft, across portions of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. These clouds will gradually shift eastward during the overnight period. As a result of these cloud levels, there will be times that areas may go down into the MVFR flight category.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.