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FXUS63 KARX 040913 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 313 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

DISCUSSION
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Key Messages:

- Higher snow probabilities and amounts for tonight continue to shift south.

- Continues to look unusually warm from Thursday into Friday.

- It continues to look like a low pressure system will track southeast of the area for this weekend. Still plenty of uncertainty of the northern edge of this precipitation and its type.

Today into Tuesday morning:

At 3 am, a shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies was producing snow across eastern Montana. The 04.00z models are in good agreement that this shortwave through will move southeast across the Northern Plains today and through the Mid Mississippi River Valley tonight. The NBM continues be on the low side when it comes to the precipitation chances, so went more with a blend of the 0.01 inch or greater probabilities in the ECMWF, Canadian, and GFS ensembles to raise these precipitation chances higher (more in the 40 to 70% chance instead of 20-40%) for tonight.
Like the past couple of days, snow amounts for tonight range from just a dusting to a half inch. The highest snow totals will be south of Interstate 90.

High temperatures will range from the mid-30s to lower 40s.

Thursday into Friday:

The 04.00z models continue to show anomalous warmth in the region from Thursday into Friday. The latest NAEFS continues to show that the 850 mb temperatures will range from 4 to 10C on Thursday.
These temperatures are 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal.
The WPC's NDFD Forecast Records Tool is hinting that there will be a possibility that there could be some record highs and warmest low temperatures in the region for Thursday.

On Friday, the 850 mb temperatures cool into the 2 to 6C range.
Even then, these temperatures are still 1 to 2 standard deviations warmer than normal.

Considering all this, the NBM temperatures looked a little too cool, so opted to trend them more toward the NBM's 90th percentile. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid-40s to around 50 north of Interstate 94, and from around 50 to the mid-50s elsewhere. Low temperatures on Thursday night will be much closer to our normal high temperatures (in the 30s) than our low temperatures. The high temperatures on Friday will be in the lower and mid-40s north of Interstate 90 and range from the mid-40s to lower 50s elsewhere.

Weekend:

For the upcoming weekend, the models continue shift a southern shortwave trough further southeast. As a result, the precipitation probabilities have decreased some. Another uncertainty for the weekend in the amount of cold air which will be found northeast of this wave. This will impact the temperatures and even precipitation type.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Widespread MVFR ceilings persist through today with periodic breaks in the clouds, most notably overnight along and west of an RST to CCY line. However, lower ceilings and fog are overspreading into this region by 08Z and last well through the morning. Winds gradually switch to the south/southwest early this morning and increase to 5-10 kts this afternoon. Another quick hitting band of snow moves through this evening, which could bring brief periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities, though recent model trends have been focusing this snow area south of the region.



ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

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