Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boscobel, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 155 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Today - Monday: Above Normal Temperatures, Precipitation Chance for Central Wisconsin?

Shortwave ridging remains in the region through the weekend. Warm west to southwest flow will help to bring above normal temperatures to the area. High temperatures for today and Sunday are between 10 and 15 degrees above normal. This translates to highs in the 40s and low 50s today and upper 30s to upper 40s for Sunday. Given the flow pattern continues through Sunday, there remains a medium chance (40 to 60%) that highs get into the 50s for portions of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa.

Heading into Sunday evening, a shortwave trough digs down into the Upper Midwest. This will bring rain and snow to the northern Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will be lifting northeast across Missouri and Illinois with moisture transport vectors increasing in this region. The hi-resolution model forecast soundings vary on how much low level moisture transport will take place. The GFS/NAM have increasing RH 90%+ in the low levels, the RAP too, however the HRRR is much drier.
Looking across Texas, there is an area of stratus. This stratus is forecast to lift north across Missouri and Illinois. The RAP is farther west with the stratus for Sunday evening while the HRRR scoots the low level moisture eastward. We'll be able to monitor the northward progression of the stratus during the day.
As the trough pushes eastward, there is a small chance (10 to 20%) of rain/wintry mix for Taylor and Clark counties Sunday late afternoon/evening. HRRR probabilities for freezing rain are 10 to 30 percent, so will continue to mention the wintry mix.
Precipitation amounts where they occur should be quite light.
Probabilities of greater than 0.01" are low; 10-30%. Should the low level moisture materialize, some light drizzle will be possible farther south. Did add a mention for now, but impacts appear low due to the temperatures being above freezing.

Much colder for Wednesday and Thursday (coldest wind chills 0 to -20) with periodic flurries Tuesday night through Wednesday:

Cooler temperatures build in Monday night with reinforcing cold air Tuesday and a stronger push of cold air Wednesday. Highs Tuesday drop into the 20s, with single digits and teens for Wednesday and Thursday. Tuesday night into Wednesday, flurries and snow showers with the cold air advection can be expected.
Will need to fine tune this as we get closer, but do have a mention in there.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

MVFR ceilings spread across north-central Wisconsin after 04Z, but look to stay north of an EAU to DLL line through sunrise.
Confidence is low with how far south and west this stratus expands during the day, but for now have kept the LSE TAF VFR.
West winds this evening decrease to less than 5-10 kts, backing to the S/SE for the day on Sunday and increase to around 10 kts during the afternoon.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.