Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Neddick, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 5:37PM Thursday March 4, 2021 7:54 PM EST (00:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:02AMMoonset 10:15AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 646 Pm Est Thu Mar 4 2021
.gale warning in effect until midnight est tonight...
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Light freezing spray late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray.
Sat..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Light freezing spray after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ100 646 Pm Est Thu Mar 4 2021
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A disturbance dropping south from canada will bring strong northwest winds across the waters this afternoon...tonight and continuing through Friday. Winds will gradually diminish this weekend as high pressure approaches from the west. High pressure will be overhead on Monday before moving south of the region through the middle of next week with southerly winds strengthening over the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Neddick, ME
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location: 43.16, -70.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 042345 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 645 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

SYNOPSIS. Gusty northwest winds are expected tonight as a strong disturbance over Canada moves overhead. Cool temperatures and gusty northwest winds are expected through Friday and Saturday with winds gradually weakening through the period. High pressure builds into the region Sunday and Monday before a significant warming trend develops next week. No significant rain or snow events are expected through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. 640 PM Update . Forecast is on track this evening with mainly minor tweaks to temperatures, dew points, and winds according to latest observations and hires guidance. At this hour, peak wind gusts around 30 kts are common for many places. Expect this to continue through the evening into the early overnight hours; while observations are sparse if at all present in the area of interest, strongest wind gusts in the lee of the western Maine mountains are expected during this time period as a mid-level jet drops through the area . enhanced by a temperature inversion just above these peaks.

Original Discussion .

High Impact Weather Potential:

* Strong winds continue through this evening . with a period of 45 mph + wind gusts in downslope regimes this evening.

* Wind chills near the international boarder will near -20F late tonight.

Pattern: Nice pressure depression on the 1.5 PVU surface lining up with area of enhanced moisture on GOES 16 water vapor imagery now dropping south into the region. This is associated with an area of cloudiness and represents a renewed round of cold advection. Ahead of this feature . northwesterly winds in a deep surface-based mixed layer have increased markedly this afternoon with gusts to 30 to 35kt rather common. Area of height falls overhead through this evening before shortwave moves south of New England overnight. Primary focus is on winds with a second focus on wind chills after midnight.

Through this Evening: High resolution guidance and ensembles suggest that while the mixed layer slowly becomes shallower this evening . winds at it/s top will strengthen . with a secondary peak in wind gusts /after this afternoon/ being in the 23-06z window. As with our last downslope wind event . the southeastern slopes are again the most favored locations for wind gusts over 40kt . but overall the setup is a good bit weaker than on Tuesday. The near term guidance has been consistent that southern New Hampshire will be a second area where gusts will be higher . though below 40kt /thus no headlines/ Here. expect that this will allow the 30-35kt gusts that are ongoing simply to persist despite the slowly stabilizing boundary layer Thus. no changes to the headlines this evening.

Overnight: After the evening peak . winds will slowly decrease overnight with continued stabilization of the boundary layer. Arctic air will arrive courtesy of these winds with T8s falling towards -25C by daybreak across the mountains. Consensus approach for temperatures usually works rather well in these well-mixed scenarios and was followed..yielding teens along the coast and southern NH with single digits in the mountains. With the winds, this does allow for a few locations right up along the international boarder to near -20F for a time around daybreak . but not enough coverage to warrant any wind chill headlines. Also . deepening moisture in the upslope flow will allow for mountain snow showers to be on the increase with an inch or two of accumulation possible in favored areas by daybreak Friday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High Impact Weather Potential:

* Wind chills will again near -20F Friday night in the mountains.

Friday: A breezy and chilly day is in store for Friday as a strong gradient in the low levels and ample daytime mixing will continue to facilitate strong winds. Winds aloft will be weaker than on Thursday /around 30kt at H8/ which suggests that gusts should remain below 30kt As for temperatures. T9s in the Arctic airmass will be in the minus teens . which will only support teens for highs in the mountains with 20s to the south. This is roughly 10F below seasonal norms for early March. Wind chills in the mountains will remain below zero through the day in the mountains . with single digits and teens to the south. Upslope snow shower activity will continue in the cyclonic flow with continued light accumulations likely in favored areas.

Friday Night: Another shortwave embedded in the northwest flow aloft will rotate into the region helping to maintain snow shower activity in the mountains and upslope areas despite lowering inversion levels. Expect any accumulation overnight to generally be less than one inch Otherwise. more of the same with a somewhat weaker gradient allowing for lighter winds . but with winds likely remaining coupled through the night. Given somewhat lighter winds . and the cold airmass in place . low temperatures will likely push a bit colder than the night previous . likely at or below zero in the mountains with single digits and teens to the south. The resulting wind chills will be about the same . with locations in the mountains again nearing -20F.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. --Pattern and Implications--

Blocky pattern apparent on early afternoon water vapor imagery along with H5 analysis over North America with somewhat of an Omega block apparent with troughs along both coasts with a ridge across the west- central portion of the continent. The NAO is moving in the positive direction through the remainder of the week and weekend which will allow the upstream blocking to give way . and allow for a substantial push of maritime Pacific air to push across the lower 48 In the mid levels. this will take the form of the central NOAM ridging pushing east into our area. This ridge will largely take Gulf moisture out of the equation with the next effect being a significant warming trend with no major precipitation- producers. The strengthening flow aloft will bring the potential for a few weak frontal passages next week.

--Daily Details--

Saturday - Monday: High pressure slowly builds south and east from northern Ontario on Saturday reaching the Appalachians by Monday. The result is a cool and breezy start Saturday with some residual mountain snow showers with winds gradually decreasing and temperatures gradually increasing as the surface high pressure ridge axis nears from the west. The decreasing gradient and dry cP airmass also favors cold overnight lows with MOS guidance followed closer for this period.

Tuesday: Weak frontal passage in the WNW flow aloft as a shortwave passes north of the region Source region is dry. so while some PoPs are warranted through the first half of the day . all that is likely is a quick snow shower . perhaps warm enough to be sprinkles/light rain if any precipitation makes it south of the mountains.

Wednesday - Thursday: Deep southwesterly flow takes over with significant warm advection to end the period. T8s move above freezing with ECMWF ensemble EFI suggesting temperatures potentially moving to values exceeding a 20 year climatology. Seeing 50s on Wednesday in the MEX is a strong signal at this range . and there is good agreement between the deterministic/ensemble guidance at this range. This is fully consistent with T9s moving to the upper +single digits at this range. Also agreed upon is another shortwave and somewhat stronger frontal passage by the very end of the forecast period Thursday. Still don't see a large precip-producer with an early look at ensemble probabilities favoring no more than a tenth or two of an inch Thus. expect us to start a melting pattern . but with somewhat cooler air to arrive after this forecast period is over.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /Through Friday Night/ .

Summary: A disturbance dropping out of Canada will bring strong northwest winds now through Friday before winds slowly diminish beginning Friday night. Some mountain snow showers are expected tonight through Friday night.

Restrictions: VFR will dominate all sites outside of HIE through the period. At HIE, some potential for a SHSN to bring isolated MVFR/IFR restrictions through the period while CIGs may near MVFR levels at times tonight and Friday.

Winds: Northwest winds 18g28kts will very gradually decrease overnight to 12g20kts before increasing again to 14g22kts for the day Friday before diminishing to around 10kts Friday night.

LLWS: Given deep mixing LLWS through 2kft is not expected through Friday night. Long Term /Saturday through Monday/ .

VFR conditions should dominate this period with gusty northwest winds on Saturday gradually diminishing through Sunday and remaining light on Monday.

MARINE. Short Term . Backed up start of the gale warning to now with gusts over gale force at IOSN3 this afternoon . with winds running a bit higher than previously forecast. Winds gusts in the current SCA area will near 35kt for a period this evening . before diminishing somewhat overnight. SCAs will be needed at least through Friday night.

Long Term . Marginal SCA conditions Saturday will diminish with headline-free conditions expected by late Saturday and continuing into early next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MEZ007-008-012- 013. NH . Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NHZ004. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ153. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Friday night for ANZ150>152. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ154.



NEAR TERM UPDATE . CASEY REST OF DISCUSSION . ARNOTT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 9 mi110 min WNW 27 G 33 33°F 4 ft1000.4 hPa
44073 10 mi110 min WNW 23 G 29 35°F 40°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 11 mi54 min WNW 12 G 20 28°F 38°F1002.3 hPa (+1.4)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 12 mi54 min W 8 28°F 8°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 13 mi54 min WNW 28 G 31 32°F 1001.6 hPa (+0.7)7°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 15 mi69 min WNW 15 31°F 1003 hPa14°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 33 mi58 min 42°F8 ft
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 35 mi34 min WNW 18 G 23 31°F 39°F1001 hPa14°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 39 mi54 min 29°F 37°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 44 mi110 min WNW 21 G 25 36°F 3 ft1001.4 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH13 mi58 minWNW 13 G 2310.00 miFair30°F4°F32%1002.4 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME18 mi58 minW 14 G 2410.00 miFair26°F10°F51%1002.9 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH19 mi63 minNW 16 G 2610.00 miFair28°F8°F43%1002.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPSM

Wind History from PSM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for York Harbor, Maine
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York Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:26 AM EST     9.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EST     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:15 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:00 PM EST     9.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:14 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.38.69.99.88.76.641.5-0.2-0.7-01.84.36.78.59.18.67.152.60.8-0.10.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
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Thu -- 12:41 AM EST     1.66 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:11 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:12 AM EST     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:16 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:00 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:07 PM EST     1.42 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:30 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:34 PM EST     -2.07 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:18 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61.20.70.1-0.7-1.7-2.2-2-1.5-0.9-00.91.41.20.70.3-0.3-1.2-2-2-1.6-1-0.3

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