NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS61 KALY 010307 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1007 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Clouds increase later tonight ahead of a fast moving storm system which will bring rain and high elevation snow to the region for Friday afternoon and evening. The weather will remain unsettled for the weekend into early next week, with a few more chances for precipitation.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
High clouds moving out but light winds remaining persistent.
So, temperatures will just slowly cool through daybreak, with the coldest temperatures in protected valleys where winds can go calm. Just minor adjustments to sky cover and temperatures through daybreak.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: High clouds increase tonight from the northwest ahead of an approaching upper shortwave. A locally strong surface pressure gradient will keep winds elevated through much of the night with continued breezes out of the south and southwest across the region. These relatively windy conditions with increasing clouds will aid in keeping tonight somewhat mild for most locations, with lows only falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the region. A few sheltered valleys may decouple from the wind and drop a few degrees colder than that overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
On Friday, a compact southern stream shortwave will eject northeastward from the southern plains with an associated surface low tracking along a stalled frontal boundary to the northwest of the forecast area. Ahead of its approach, the day will begin with partly cloudy skies in the morning and near- normal temperatures as highs rise into the mid 30s to upper 40s across the region. Isentropic ascent east of the surface low will result in overcast skies and light to moderate steady precipitation overspreading the area through the afternoon and evening. Precipitation may initially fall as rain/snow mix in higher terrain of the Adirondacks as a modest dry layer beneath the cloud base allow for wet-bulb cooling of the column, but a quick changeover to plain rain is expected while lower elevations see only rain from the onset. Rain looks to continue through much of Friday night, resulting in very mild overnight temperatures with lows in the low to mid 30s. Little in the way of accumulating snow is expected due to the rapid transition to rain, and rain accumulations are expected to range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch with higher amounts near a half inch in upslope favored portions of the southern Adirondacks.

As a large scale upper trough digs in over the Central CONUS, the weather remains unsettled locally as additional upper impulses pass over the region within persistent southwest flow in the upper levels. With ample available moisture, enhanced cloud cover and persistent chances of rainfall continue across the region through Saturday. The stalled boundary long the St Lawrence Valley may serve as a focus for rain chances, suggesting northwestern portions of the forecast area may see the most persistent precipitation. Temperatures look to remain relatively mild within this pattern, as highs on Saturday reach into the upper 30s to low 40s in high terrain and mid 40s to low 50s at lower elevations, while Saturday night lows only fall into the low 30s to low 40s across the region.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Main focus of the long term is the potential for a coastal low pressure system bringing accumulating precipitation to the region Sunday into Monday, although forecast confidence remains low at this time...

Long term begins at 12z Sunday with upper troughing digging over the center of the country. At the same time, several southern stream shortwaves embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will track in the vicinity of the east coast. As the northern stream trough moves eastwards, it will likely phase with one of these southern stream waves, but current guidance suggests this may not be a "clean" phase, resulting in a primary low tracking to our west and another area of low pressure developing off the Mid-Atlantic / southern New England coast. With impressive dynamics aloft, there will be plenty of forcing for ascent, so widespread precipitation is expected across most of the region Sunday and especially Sunday night into early Monday. Because there are so many smaller-scale moving pieces, model guidance is continuing to struggle with the complex interaction of these features. This means there is significant uncertainty in the amount, type, and duration of any precipitation across our region. Given this uncertainty, did not stray too far from NBM guidance for the first part of the long term forecast.

While exact precip types will depend on the eventual track of the surface low(s) and the degree of phasing between the northern and souther stream, ensemble guidance suggests that accumulating snow is possible in the high terrain of the Adirondacks and perhaps the southern Greens, with higher probabilities of rain for valley areas, particularly south of I-90. Even if precipitation begins as rain, some areas could see a flip to snow Monday as colder air gets wrapped into the back side of the system, and there has been more of a signal for this with the 12z guidance today. Will note, however, that with so much model uncertainty the warmer GFS-like and colder Euro-like solution cannot be completely taken off the table. Will continue to closely monitor this portion of the forecast closely, and confidence will hopefully increase as additional sources of guidance become available over the next day or two.

The surface low should begin to wrap up/deepen and pull away to our northeast by Monday afternoon. Behind the departing low, colder air will be advected into the region by NW winds. We remain under broad upper troughing through at least the first half of next week. This pattern will result in periods of lake effect rain/snow showers for areas west of I-87 through Wednesday, but the exact timing and location of any lake effect is uncertain at this time. It will also be breezy with plenty of lake effect clouds across the region, so it will fee quite cool as temperatures for the Monday night through Thursday timeframe will likely remain slightly below normal.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions prevail through at least 12 UTC/01 with only increasing cirrus clouds through that time. After 12 UTC ceilings start to lower as mid-level moisture increases with SCT-BKN ceilings dropping to 5 - 10kft by 01/18Z.

Rain showers will also be spreading northeastward towards the end of the TAF period with showers likely reaching TAF sites between 17 and 23Z. Did introduce MVFR ceilings/visibility all TAF sites except KPOU towards the end of the TAF period.

Southerly winds will stay elevated tonight with winds sustained 5-8kts overnight. Then, winds shift to the south-southeast tomorrow morning and remain 5-10kts except at KGFL where winds may remain light and variable through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Troy
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:21 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:21 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:07 PM EST     5.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:11 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:59 PM EST     5.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Albany, NY,