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FXUS61 KALY 030230 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1030 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will shift away from the region tonight as clouds increase ahead of an approaching warm front, with warm to hot temperatures returning and continuing through Independence Day.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive with a weak cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday, before another system brings more widespread chances for rain and thunder Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

Update
As of 10:30 PM EDT...Main change with this update was to lower temperatures, as NYS mesonet obs already show high- terrain areas in the upper 50s to low 60s as more breaks in the high clouds combined with light to calm winds have allowed for very efficient radiative cooling conditions so far tonight. That being said, dew points remain in the 50s to 60s and current satellite imagery shows some thicker mid and high clouds that will move in from the northwest over the next few hours, so temperatures will likely level off after around 06z. Will also mention the possibility for a few areas of patchy fog overnight tonight, mainly across the upper Hudson Valley and the CT River Valley. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with more details below...

Previous
High pressure overhead will slide to the southeast as a warm front extending east from a system over the Midwest approaches, bringing increased mid to high cloud coverage through tonight. Increased clouds will stymie efficient radiative cooling tonight, yielding lows in the 50s for most and near 60 degrees along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys. A weak surface pressure gradient will see light winds continue through tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A warm front will lift across the region Wednesday. Despite the surface low remaining fairly far to the north and west, the tightening pressure gradient will yield breezy southerly flow.
Mid-level southwesterly flow will aid in lifting temperatures a few degrees warmer than Tuesday, resulting in afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in high terrain and mid to upper 80s at lower elevations Wednesday.

The weakening cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday evening, tracking across the region overnight. As showers move into the area, nocturnal stabilization of the air mass will see coverage decrease. A few isolated thunderstorms may still reach into the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley through the evening. Overnight lows will remain mild, largely in the 60s across the region.

Independence Day will feature warm to hot temperatures with increased humidity as dewpoints reach into the mid 60s to low 70s at low elevations. Afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in high terrain and mid to upper 80s at lower elevations will result in heat indices exceeding 90 degrees within the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, but heat advisories are not anticipated at this point. Showers may linger into the morning as the cold front continues to track southeastward while diurnal heating south of the boundary may allow for enough destabilization to yield a few additional thunderstorms through the afternoon, especially south of Albany. Much of the shower activity should end by the evening, however a few stray showers may persist into the overnight period. Lows Thursday night remain mild, in the upper 50s to upper 60s across the region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The period starts on Fri with a cyclone tracking east across the Midwest, with a warm front extending south/east from the cyclone into the mid Atlantic region. There will already be a warm air mass in place, with increasing moisture south of the front. It may get close enough to produce isolated to widely scattered showers/T- storms Fri afternoon/evening, mainly south of Albany. It will be very warm with highs approaching 90F in the Hudson Valley.

The warm front lifts north across the area Fri night bringing scattered showers/T-storms. Sat looks warm and increasingly humid in the warm sector, but cloud cover may limit temperatures. Dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 70s in lower elevations. The aforementioned cyclone is expected to track across northern portions of the Great Lakes to near the Ontario/Quebec border, with a trailing cold front pushing east across our area Sat afternoon into Sat evening. Given increased forcing, there will be scattered to numerous showers/T-storms during this time. Given sufficient instability/shear, there could be some strong to severe storms. Will continue to monitor trends.

The "cold" front will be east of the region on Sunday, with the air mass behind it similarly warm but somewhat less humid. Mainly dry conditions are expected with weak high pressure building in, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will continue to be above normal on Mon. With high pressure in place, it should be dry again outside of an isolated diurnally driven shower. Increasing chances for showers/T-storms arrive on Tue, as an upper level trough and associated surface fronts approach from the west.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 00Z Thursday...Flying conditions are currently VFR, which should prevail through at least the end of the TAF period.
Some patchy fog can't completely be ruled out at GFL for an hour or two right around sunrise, but current thinking is that there should be enough mid and high clouds around to prevent fog formation. Otherwise, just SCT to BKN mid and high clouds expected through tomorrow evening.

Winds will be light to calm tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt from the south tomorrow morning. By around noon, southerly winds increase to around 10 kt with some gusts to 20 kt (locally up to 25 kt at ALB) through 00z Thursday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Tue -- 02:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:33 AM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:02 PM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:29 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:25 AM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:15 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:54 PM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:19 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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Albany, NY,