Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manchester, VT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Key Message:

- Quiet weather.

UPDATE
As of 625 PM EST, A warm front will lift northward across the region tonight. An area of clouds are developing and expanding under a strong inversion around 800 hPa as seen in early data from the 00z KALY sounding. Additional mid-level clouds are approaching from the west. Overall, expect variable cloudiness tonight with most areas with more clouds than clearing. This could result in widely variable temperatures tonight. Still, most areas will dip into the teens and 20s.

A few snow showers will track along the warm front tonight, but low-level dry air should prevent much of this from reaching the ground. The exception may be in the southern Adirondacks where slight chance PoPs were kept overnight.

With increasing confidence for 7 or more inches of lake-effect snow across the southern Adirondacks, a Winter Storm Watch for Lake Effect Snow was issued for northern Herkimer County.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Key Messages:

- Scattered snow showers, maybe an isolated snow squall possible Monday afternoon and evening.

- Additional snow showers possible Tuesday afternoon with the arctic cold front tracking through.

- Lake effect snow expected in the western Adirondacks Monday night into Wednesday, with moderate to locally heavy accumulations.

Northern stream upper low approaches from Canada and the Great Lakes. Some snow showers and a possible snow squall with the advance of the leading edge of the cold air. Mean low level flow will be westerly, and the thermal gradient along the leading edge of cold advection will be rather weak, so the best chances for snow showers and isolated squalls would be the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks, where decent low level lapse rates will also be in place. Highs Monday in the mid 30s to around 40 in the Hudson Valley and NW CT, and upper 20s to around 30 higher terrain.

Arctic air begins to spread across the region Monday night into Tuesday and low level lapse rates remain steep. Cold air aloft in proximity to the upper low overhead will also contribute to the instability as lake effect moisture, clouds and scattered snow showers spread east in west to northwest low level flow.
Organized lake effect snow band extends into Herkimer County late Monday night through Tuesday night but the heaviest of the snow remains west of the region. So, snow totals into the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks should approach 4 to 8 inches right along the Herkimer/Oneida border by Wednesday morning.

Lake effect snow showers should decrease in coverage by Wednesday morning as the upper low exits and just scattered, lighter snow showers will affect the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks.

Highs Tuesday in the 20s to near 30 with around 20 to lower 20s higher terrain. Highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 20s with teens to around 20 higher terrain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Message:

- Slow warming trend Thursday and Friday to near or just above normal temperatures with dry weather.

- Next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be next weekend with a mix of rain and snow as temperatures trend slightly above normal.

Flat upper ridging and weak warm advection, along with mainly dry weather Thursday and Friday. A few lingering snow showers into the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks Thursday. Highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s with around 20 to lower 20s higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid to upper 30s with mid 20s to around 30 higher terrain.

Next system approaches Saturday and Sunday with chances for rain and snow in the valleys and snow in higher terrain. Highs Saturday in the mid 30s to around 40 with around 30 to lower 30s higher terrain. Highs Sunday, as the system potentially departs and some initial cold advection begins to move into our region, in the 30s in the valleys and some 20s southern Adirondacks and eastern Catskills.

AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00z/Tue...VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites into Monday morning with variable cloudiness with bases generally at or above 5000 feet. By Monday afternoon, a cold front will cross the region with the potential for some isolated to scattered snow showers. A localized snow squall cannot be ruled out either. Best chance for this activity is at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. Have included a PROB30 to address this activity for now. In any snow showers, vsbys could briefly lower to IFR with MVFR/VFR cigs.

Wind will be light and variable to calm tonight, then south to southwesterly at around 10 kt by Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for NYZ032.
MA...None.
VT...None.