Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:55PM Sunday January 26, 2020 12:03 AM EST (05:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:32AMMoonset 7:43PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, VT
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location: 43.16, -73.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 260300 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1000 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Rain and a high elevation wintry mix will taper off overnight. Some high terrain snow showers will continue Sunday into Monday, but elsewhere it will be mainly dry and milder than normal.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM Sunday for Hamilton and northern Warren Counties and the southern Green Mountains.

As of 950 pm, most of the steady precipitation has exited the area as the midlevel dry slot has moved through. There are still a couple of areas of concern from a winter weather standpoint. The first is a band of deformation snow working its way through the southern Adirondacks. The NYS Mesonet site at Raquette Lake appeared to have picked up around an inch of snow from 8-9 pm with this, and additional light accumulation can be expected over the next hour or two. As such, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going for Hamilton/northern Warren Counties despite the lack of freezing rain there. The second area of concern is above 1500 feet elevation in the southern Greens, where we have received reports of slick back roads likely due to a combination of cold ground temperatures and some sleet mixing in with the rain/freezing rain. Will keep the advisory going there as well, but will cancel for the northern Berkshires as even the higher elevations are well above freezing. Elsewhere, spotty rain showers/drizzle are occurring but this should trend downward in coverage through the night.

Previous discussion .

As of 4 PM, widespread rainfall is currently impacting eastern NY and western New England with radar showing bright banding over the southern Adirondacks, Schoharie County, and eastern Catskills. NYS mesonet cameras and correlation coefficients show these areas are likely rain mixing with or changing to sleet/snow as colder air aloft in place over Central NY advects eastward into our region. Given temperatures outside of the southern Adirondacks are above freezing in the mid-30s, accumulations will likely be tough. However, northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties are closer to freezing so accumulations up to 1 inch are possible here but the back edge of the steady rainfall is quickly progressing eastward. We also allowed the Winter Weather Advisory to remain in place for Hamilton, northern Warren, southern VT and northern Berkshire County through 4AM tonight due to temperatures remaining near freezing and thus possible slippery travel conditions from freezing rain/sleet. We issued a Special Weather Statement for the western Mohawk Valley and parts of southwest Adirondacks where bright banding and colder surface temperatures could support wet snow leading to slippery travel conditions through early this evening.

The steady rainfall should exit into New England by 00z to 03z tonight and our highest temperatures may actually occur during this window as the warm nose aloft characterized by 850mb isotherms between +2C to +5C will be overhead. Temperatures should peak in the upper 30s to low 40s. Beside temperatures, gusty southeast winds continue in the Berkshires, southern Greens and Taconics with NYS mesonet and ASOS stations showing gusts reaching 30-45mph. We issued a Special Weather Statement to account for gusty winds through 03z tonight.

Any lingering rain/snow showers should exit by 03-06z when the best mid- level moisture finally exits to our northeast. Some partial clearing may ensue thereafter as the mid-level dry slot quickly punches into eastern NY/western New England. BUFKIT sounding have consistently showed skies partially clearing after 06z up the Hudson River Valley from Poughkeepsie towards Glens Falls in addition to NW CT. Usually in the wake of an occluded boundary the air mass remains a bit mild and current guidance shows southerly winds remaining in place with temperatures staying steady in the low to mid 30s. Plus, upstream observations shows that some patchy fog may develop overnight which should also keep temperatures slightly above freezing. Thus, any wet surface should stay wet but we will monitor temperatures in case more clearing develops and colder temperatures lead to some patchy black ice formation.

However, for areas in the southern Adirondacks, BUFKIT soundings show that as the mid-level clouds clear tonight, low-levels remain moist and cloud top temperatures stay milder than -10C. This means clouds should be too warm to support ice nuclei and with surface temperatures cooling towards 30-32F, these areas could experience patchy freezing drizzle. Again, not a high confidence forecast but something to monitor overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Heading towards Sunday morning, guidance continues to show the potent vorticity maxima associated with our closed low swinging through the Northeast with sufficient 700mb moisture present. While high-resolution guidance still shows most of the region staying dry, we will continue to show slight chance and low end chance POPs to account for a line of rain/snow showers moving through the area from southwest to northeast 12z to 15z Sunday. Temperatures still look marginal to support much snow accumulation but coatings up to an inch is possible in the southern Greens and Taconics due to upslope enhancement. Skies should partially clear in the wake of the vorticity maxima heading towards midday Sunday as guidance shows a surge of subsidence moving in at 500mb behind it. However, by the afternoon, westerly flow and cold air advection ensues with lake and upslope enhanced snow showers moving into the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Other areas likely stay dry with westerly flow leading to a rather mild Sunday. High temperatures should warm into the upper 30s to low 40s which for late January is about 10 degrees warmer than normal.

Overnight Sunday into early Monday the upper level trough axis and surface inverted trough move into eastern NY/western New England with once again sufficient 700mb moisture present. This will keep chance POPs in the forecast, especially for areas north of I-90 and favored westward facing upslope regions of the southern Greens, Berkshires, Taconics and Adirondacks, as an area of snow showers could move through the region. Temperatures should be cooler than Saturday night but still mild by late January standards as westerly flow should prevent lows from decreasing too much, only reaching into the upper 20s to low 30s. Overall, the total QPF between the upslope/lake enhanced snow showers Sunday afternoon plus additional snow showers from the surface inverted trough Sunday night into early Monday is not overly impressive with amounts generally around 0.10-0.20 of an inch. However, this should equate to about 2 to 4 inches of new snow for the southern Adirondacks. Given these snow amounts should occur over a prolonged period of ongoing snow showers for nearly two days, a Winter Weather Advisory may not be needed. We will monitor trends though.

In the wake of the trough axis on Monday we will still be dealing with moist cyclonic flow overhead as the closed low very slowly exits into the Canadian Maritimes. While westerly flow should shift northwest, the air mass moving over the lakes is not overly cold with 850mb isotherms only ranging between -6C and -8C. Thus, the critical delta-T threshold may only barely be met so lake enhanced/upslope favored snow showers does not look overly impressive. However, we continued to keep chance POPs in the forecast for the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens to account for the ongoing snow showers due to persistent moist cyclonic flow. Temperatures Monday once again look rather mild with highs in the mid to upper 30s with near 40 in the mid- Hudson Valley.

Snow showers should diminish overnight Monday with temperatures cooling into the mid to upper 20s as northwest flow advects in a cooler air mass.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The period starts out on Tuesday with a broad upper level trough still positioned across the region. However with limited forcing and moisture, not much in the way of precip is expected. Even lake effect will be muted due to very borderline lake-air delta T's at best. So will only mention a slight chance of snow showers for areas west of the Hudson Valley through the day.

Will then mention dry conditions from Tuesday night through Friday, with surface high pressure slowly meandering eastward across the region during this time. Also, heights aloft will be gradually increasing through the work week. The flow pattern looks to transition from cyclonic to anticyclonic by Thursday. Temperatures are still expected be slightly above normal, as there are no significant cold air masses near our region.

The next chance of precipitation arrives next weekend, with a potential coastal storm on the horizon. However, as expected this far in advance, model guidance indicating large differences. Bottom line there is at least a signal for a possible storm, but the track, intensity and resulting QPF are extremely uncertain at this time. Will continue to monitor trends over the next several days.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Steady rain continues over KALB/KGFL and is about to depart KPSF. It has already moved north of KPOU. IFR conditions exist in this area of rain except at KGFL which is being kept up by easterly downsloping winds. The precipitation should become more spotty through 06Z, but improvement in flying conditions may be slow to occur with lingering fog/mist and low clouds. We do expect an improvement to generally MVFR and above especially past 06Z, but there is the prospect that if clouds clear out there could be some patchy fog formation, especially at KPOU. Not enough confidence to include this in a prevailing sense, but will continue to monitor.

On Sunday, roughly 13-16Z, an upper level disturbance may generate some snow showers (possibly mixed with rain). A PROB30 was included for the potential of reduced visibility. Otherwise, conditions should be mainly VFR with some SCT-BKN stratocu about.

Northerly winds at 5 to 10 kt should tend to turn westerly through the night at around 5 to 10 kt. They may turn light and variable at times. Low level wind shear conditions continue to be possible at KGFL/KPSF through around 01Z. Sunday afternoon, some westerly gusts to 20 kt are possible.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. SHSN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. Widespread rain continues to progress through eastern NY/western New England with rain changing to snow in the Adirondacks and parts of the eastern Catskills through early evening. Total liquid precipitation should range between 0.50 and 1.25" with the highest amounts expected in the eastern Catskills. While some periods of moderate rainfall are possible with rainfall rates up to 0.10 to 0.20" per hour, flooding is not expected. Some river rises are expected through tomorrow in response to the widespread rainfall but rivers will remain below flood stage.

Snow showers with some enhancements along the western facing slope are possible Sunday into Monday for the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens but temperatures should support frozen precipitation.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for NYZ033-042. MA . None. VT . Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for VTZ013-014.

SYNOPSIS . Thompson/Speciale NEAR TERM . Thompson/Speciale SHORT TERM . Speciale LONG TERM . JPV AVIATION . Thompson HYDROLOGY . KL/Speciale


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 91 mi94 min Calm 36°F 1007 hPa36°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT21 mi70 minW 45.00 miFog/Mist40°F37°F89%1006.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDDH

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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sun -- 12:21 AM EST     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:02 AM EST     4.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:30 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:17 PM EST     5.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:47 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.20.82.13.13.84.13.832.31.710.30.31.32.73.94.85.35.14.23.12.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sun -- 12:11 AM EST     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:54 AM EST     4.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:20 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:09 PM EST     5.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:47 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.112.23.23.94.13.72.92.21.60.90.20.41.52.94.14.95.354.132.11.1

Weather Map
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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