Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, VT

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:17PM Saturday December 14, 2019 9:57 PM EST (02:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:50PMMoonset 10:29AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, VT
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location: 43.16, -73.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 150235 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 935 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will move across the area tonight, with rain changing to accumulating snow in the western Adirondacks and some additional rain or snow showers elsewhere. Strong gusty winds will develop behind the cold front late tonight into Sunday. Colder temperatures filter into the region Sunday into Sunday night. Another storm system approaching from the west is expected to bring snow and or a wintry mix to the region Monday night through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties from 10 PM tonight until 1 PM Sunday .

Wind Advisory has been issued for the southern Green Mountains Vermont, Berkshires, Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, Capital District, northern and central Taconics, eastern Catskills, and Fulton and Hamilton Counties from 1 AM to 7 PM Sunday .

As of 935 pm, the surface low continues to quickly pushing north of the area, now centered near Montreal at around 980 mb. It appears to have deepened AOA 1mb/hr for at least the past 8 hours. Winds will continue to gradually increase this evening as pressure rises spread into the area, which has allowed visibilities to improve. We are already seeing some 40 mph gusts at NYSM sites at Johnstown and Voorheesville. Water vapor imagery suggests deep- layer drying has spread in from the southeast, which should result in a decrease in shower activity as well for most of the area. The exception will be across the far western Mohawk Valley and western Adirondacks, into which the deformation precip over central NY is spreading. Based on temps, webcams, and spotter reports, the rain has turned to snow here. Forecast looks to be in good shape with little changes needed.

Previous discussion .

As of 400 PM EST . Rain now moving back into the region from the west, as the next potent upper level short wave moves through. Rain has already re-developed for most areas west of the Hudson Valley, and will spread eastward into early evening. Surface low pressure is in the process of consolidating over eastern NY and will continue to track northward into extreme southeast Quebec during the evening. Steadiest rain into this evening will be for areas from around Albany north and west, with only intermittent rain south and east.

Colder air is already filtering in behind the deepening surface cyclone across western NY late this afternoon. While temperatures are in the 40s across eastern NY and western New England, colder 30s with rain changing to snow now occurring in central NY. This trend will continue to spread eastward tonight, with rain changing to snow first across higher terrain areas west of the Hudson Valley this evening. Much of the steadier precip will move out of the area by late this evening, except for the comma-head/deformation/upslope area to the south and west of the deepening cyclone. This will result in steady snowfall across the western Adirondacks through tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for this area, with snow accumulations of 3-7 inches still expected. Snowfall rates could exceed a half inch per hour at times, especially for areas west of Speculator and Indian Lake. Also, as winds shift to the west upslope snow will develop across the southern Greens in VT after midnight. We have increased snowfall accumulations to around 2-5 inches for areas above 2000 ft. Snow totals will drop off dramatically across lower elevations.

Wind speeds will increase steadily tonight after midnight, as the surface cyclone continue to intensify in SE Quebec and cold advection begins in earnest. This will promote mixing as winds aloft strengthen. Wind gusts of between 40-50 mph expected to develop across the advisory area, which area favored in a NW flow regime. Temperatures will start out mild in the upper 30s to upper 40s, but will then gradually cool front west to east overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/. Upslope/deformation snow over the western Adirondacks will transition to more of a lake effect regime by Sunday morning, as the cyclone moves farther away from the region and the flow trajectory becomes W-NW with Conditional lake-induced instability. There will be some additional accumulation with this activity, especially across central Herkimer and southwest Hamilton counties where a few more inches are likely. The Winter Weather Advisory goes through 1 PM Sunday. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered snow showers are possible, but with little if any accumulation outside the southern Green Mountains. Gusty northwest winds will continue through early Sunday evening, as occasional gusts of 40-50 mph will persist across the Wind Advisory area in the cold advection regime and a strong pressure gradient in place. Temperatures will be colder than today, but still slightly above normal for mid December ranging from the lower 30s in the mountains to lower 40s in the Hudson Valley.

Lake effect snow showers should diminish Sunday night, as inversion heights are forecast to lower to around 850 mb. Still, it could take some time to completely end, so will mention light to low chance of snow showers into Sunday evening across the Mohawk Valley and southwest Adirondacks. Sunday night will be much colder across the entire region, as high pressure builds in from the west.

Monday now looks to be mainly dry, as the surface high gradually moves into western New England by late in the day. Most sources of guidance have slowed down onset of snow until Monday night, so will only mention slight to low chance south and west of Albany just prior to 00Z Tuesday.

Snow will develop Monday night from SW to NE associated with an open wave/positive tilt trough that will be approaching from the south and west. Model guidance still somewhat divergent with regards to the surface cyclone track. Model consensus is for the track to be just south of our region. However, warmer air aloft is still expected to move in associated with a southwest flow aloft. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF actually indicating similar thermal profile in the lowest 5 kft, with a warm nose aloft potentially moving northward to right around the Capital District and I-90 by Tuesday morning. Still, a period of snow is expected to result in light to moderate accumulations Monday night before snow mixes with sleet and/or freezing rain. The mix will occur first for far southern areas, where snow accumulations should be limited. However, there will be a gradient that could set up close to the I-90 corridor separating light vs. moderate snow accumulations.

At this time, the event looks to be a solid advisory event that should impact the Tuesday morning commute. With an open wave aloft, this system will be fast-moving, which will hold down QPF somewhat. Will continue to mention threat for snow and/or wintry mix in the HWO. Temperatures may not get above freezing for much of the area on Tuesday, except for mainly valley areas south of Albany.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As the early week storm pulls away, precipitation will gradually come to an end Tuesday night, ending as a period of snow for most locations. The next storm system and arctic cold front will slide across the region on Wednesday. Enough low- level moisture from the lakes, combined with 850 hPa temperatures below -10C, will set the stage for lake-effect (and lake-enhanced) snow showers and squalls. At this time, the steadiest and heaviest squalls are likely to affect the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks.

In the wake of the front, temperatures Wednesday night will tumble to the lower teens across the mid-Hudson Valley, single digits across the Capital District, western New England and the Mohawk Valley and below zero across the Adirondacks. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder. A northwesterly flow over the Great Lakes will lead to lingering lake-effect snow showers, mainly affecting the Mohawk Valley and Catskills.

On Thursday, lake-effect snow showers will continue to affect portions of the Catskills, Mohawk Valley and even the Adirondacks, but will gradually dissipate as high pressure builds over the region. Thursday could end up being the coldest day so far this season with high temperatures ranging from the single digits and teens north to the low to mid-20s south.

High pressure will continue to dominate the region on Friday and Saturday. It will remain cold with temperatures averaging 5-10 degrees below normal.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The low pressure system responsible for the fog and low clouds today is quickly pushing northward and strengthening. Stronger winds wrapping in on the southern periphery of the low will allow visibility to improve rather quickly early in the TAF period as winds strengthen. It may take a bit longer for ceilings to come up, but they too should improve through the night and into Sunday. Any rainfall looks confined to 00-02Z in the form of rain showers. VFR conditions should return late tonight into early tomorrow, but BKN stratocumulus should still be around.

Winds will shift to the southwest at the start of the TAF period and increase overnight as they become more westerly with time. Gusts of 20-30 kt are possible overnight, especially after 03Z. The wind will continue to strengthen after sunrise Sunday, with westerly gusts of 30 to 40 kt possible, strongest at KALB/KPSF.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Tuesday: High Operational Impact Definite SN. SLEET. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHSN. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. The Flood Watch for Berkshire and Litchfield County was allowed to expire this afternoon. River Flood Warnings are now in effect for most of the Housatonic river points, with Falls Village expected to be issued soon.

Another round of rainfall will move into the region through early this evening. However, greater amounts of a quarter to half inch will be west of the Hudson Valley, with much less east. This additional rainfall across the Taconics into western New England will not have any additional effect on river levels. Rain will change to snow over the western Adirondacks with rain and or snow showers elsewhere late tonight.

Another storm system will bring snow and or a wintry mix to the region, with bitter arctic cold expected from the middle of next week through at least the end of the work week. With colder air in place and primarily frozen precip expected, no additional flooding is anticipated.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ033-038>040- 047>054-058-061-063-082. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ032-033. MA . Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for MAZ001-025. VT . Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for VTZ013-014.

SYNOPSIS . Thompson/JPV NEAR TERM . Thompson/JPV SHORT TERM . JPV LONG TERM . Rathbun AVIATION . Thompson HYDROLOGY . JPV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 91 mi88 min SE 2.9 48°F 987 hPa44°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT21 mi64 minWSW 8 G 142.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist49°F45°F86%985.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDDH

Wind History from DDH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 01:01 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM EST     4.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:58 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:35 PM EST     5.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.20.31.62.93.74.143.32.11.20.60.2-00.51.93.64.95.45.54.93.62.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sat -- 12:52 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM EST     4.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:48 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:27 PM EST     5.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.20.41.83.13.84.13.93.11.910.60.2-00.62.23.955.55.54.73.42.11.3

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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