Wednesday, August4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:12PM Wednesday August 4, 2021 2:40 PM EDT (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 1:46AMMoonset 5:43PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, VT
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location: 43.16, -73.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 041736 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 136 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

SYNOPSIS. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will continue through tonight as a coastal low moves up the East Coast toward southern New England. A period or two of rain will be possible tonight into early Thursday across western New England. Afterwards, mostly dry weather returns for the rest of the week with a gradual warming trend. Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. UPDATE . As of 120 PM EDT . Latest satellite imagery and visual observations outside our office show that the high clouds have thinned out a bit from earlier this morning and has resulted in a quicker rise in temperatures and more sunshine across the region. Have adjusted sky cover downward slightly to indicate a partly to mostly cloudy sky for the remainder of the day. Temperatures at this hour are in the 70s in most places with Whitehall the highest at 78. So, high temperatures were also increased with this update with 70s to around 80 expected this afternoon.

Latest radar imagery shows rain struggling to extend far inland from the weak coastal low moving northward up the East Coast. Pops were adjusted lower across western New England to indicate a later arrival time. Therefore, mainly dry weather is expected across the entire area for the remainder of the afternoon.

A period of rain remains possible for portions of western New England tonight into early Thursday morning as the low tracks into southern New England. Otherwise, expect dry weather tonight with more clouds in eastern areas and more clearing to the west. Some patchy low clouds and/or fog may form in areas tonight. Low temperatures will be mainly in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Thursday, as this coastal wave and frontal zone shift to the east and northeast of the region, we remain under the influence of an upper trough across the region. While overall moisture profiles remain low and lack of low level forcing, we will keep slight chance PoPs from the previous forecast for portions west of the Hudson River. This area will be closer to the cyclonic flow per the ensemble mean. As some increase in August sunshine is expected, temperatures should moderate a few degrees with near 80F for valley locations and generally 70s elsewhere.

This upper trough is expected to become increasingly progress and track eastward through the short term period. Improving conditions along with increasing temperatures and humidity heading into Friday. H850 temperatures are expected to climb into the mid teens celsius combining with an increase southwest flow regime behind the departing surface ridge. After low temperatures generally between 55-60F along with some patchy fog, highs Friday afternoon should return back into the low-mid 80s for most valley areas and upper 70s for the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. The extended forecast period will consist of warmer than normal temperatures. As far as precipitation, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding precipitation chances. There will be a series of mid to upper level impulses tracking. However, it's going to depend on the precise track of the baroclinic zone/jet stream as well as timing and how much forcing is being supported over the region.

We start off the period Friday night with clouds increasing from northwest to southeast in response to an approaching shortwave trough. At the surface, a cold front will be located to our northwest over southeastern Quebec/Ontario into the northern Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will be along and ahead of this cold front. Given the setup, most of the large scale forcing will be located to our northwest closer to the shortwave trough and surface cold front. That said, the greatest confidence/coverage will be located northwest of Albany Saturday afternoon/evening.

During the day on Sunday, the aforementioned cold front is expected to shift southeastward over the forecast area bringing another day with the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The highest confidence for showers and thunderstorms will be north of Albany. Expect for showers and thunderstorms to move from north to south on Sunday afternoon/evening.

Uncertainty increases Monday-Wednesday given the spread amongst forecast models in the handling over the overall evolution of the pattern. Right now, it looks like Monday will be dry with a narrow high over the region. Tuesday-Wednesday, it's a toss-up as whether or not we remain dry or get in on any additional wet weather. Again, everything will hinge on the precise storm track, timing, and amount of forcing. Instability values do look impressive to support severe weather, but that's if we get any storm production. For now, have included isolated to scattered chances for showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday.

As far as temperatures, anomalies during this period will run warmer than normal with daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s along the river valleys and low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As a coastal low continues its track up the coast, high level clouds will stream across the forecast area. This will result in VFR conditions through at least this evening. Depending on how much cloud cover remains in place overnight, fog may be possible in the more susceptible locations. Have therefore introduced MVFR fog at KGFL overnight.

Overall, rainfall from the coastal low is not expected to impact the TAF sites but may come close to KPSF overnight and into Thursday morning.

Winds will be light and variable through the TAF forecast period.

Outlook .

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHRA. TSRA.

FIRE WEATHER. A coastal wave will bring clouds across most of the region and perhaps some showers across western New England through Thursday. Thereafter, increasing temperatures and humidity are expected for the end of the week. The threat for showers and thunderstorms increases through this first full weekend of August.

After relative humidity values of 90 to near 100 percent is this morning with some patchy fog mainly in river valley . values drop back slowly to between 50 and 60 percent this afternoon. We once again return back at or above 90 percent tonight. Winds will be light today through tonight.

HYDROLOGY. Mainly dry weather through the remainder of this week. Guidance continues to support the moderate-heavy rainfall associated with a wave of low pressure moving northward along a boundary stalled off the coast mostly to our east. Some showers may graze portions of the Taconics into western New England later this afternoon into Thursday. Otherwise our next widespread chances for storms arrives this weekend, mainly during the afternoon into the evening.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Rathbun NEAR TERM . Rathbun SHORT TERM . BGM LONG TERM . Evbuoma AVIATION . JLV FIRE WEATHER . BGM HYDROLOGY . BGM


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 91 mi70 min Calm 74°F 1020 hPa64°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT21 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair77°F57°F50%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDDH

Wind History from DDH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4W3CalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm
1 day ago4N4W7W34SW7CalmS5CalmSE3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmW4W34
2 days agoS6NW4NE3CalmNW4W4CalmCalmW6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W3CalmSW46444NW4NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:43 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:35 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:08 PM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:36 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.144.74.84.33.52.7210.1-00.71.72.53.13.53.22.51.81.30.7-0-0.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:35 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:25 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:00 PM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:26 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.34.14.74.84.23.32.61.80.8-00.10.91.92.63.23.53.22.41.81.20.5-0.1-01

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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