Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, VT

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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:19PM Saturday November 28, 2020 11:58 AM EST (16:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:35PMMoonset 6:06AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, VT
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location: 43.16, -73.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 281550 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1050 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Seasonably mild temperatures will continue this weekend. Mostly cloudy skies and isolated to scattered showers through the early afternoon will give way to some clearing later today. Abundant sunshine is expected Sunday. A strong storm system will bring a period of rain and breezy conditions on Monday, with very mild temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1045 AM EST, quick update to increase PoPs farther south into the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, with generally slight chance to low chance all areas through early afternoon, as upper level shortwave continues tracking east across south central NYS. Seems to be two embedded impulses still to track through. H500 temps cool to around -22C to -24C as core of trough passes through, so some low level instability looks to allow for isolated/scattered showers to increase in coverage through early afternoon, before decreasing thereafter once subsidence develops/strengthens.

Latest NYS Mesonet webcams suggest snow levels drop to around 1600 FT in the SW Dacks, so as cooling aloft tracks east, current rain or rain/snow mix may change to all snow across higher elevations at/above 1600 feet across northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties, where a coating to up to an inch of snow accumulation may occur through early this afternoon.

Previous discussion follows .

As of 610 am, early morning water vapor imagery depicts a lead shortwave moving into New England and a trailing wave moving across Lake Erie. 00Z KALY sounding showed moisture trapped below a steep inversion at 775 mb, with upstream soundings at KBUF and KDTX showing similar profiles, accounting for the widespread cloud cover observed downstream of the trailing wave throughout Ontario, western PA, and most of NYS. Expect cloudy skies to generally continue into the early afternoon hours, except perhaps for some breaks in the valleys south of Albany. Despite the lack of deep moisture (KALY, KBUF, KDTX soundings all sampled < 0.50 inches PWAT), modest 850 mb cold advection associated with the approaching wave combined with modest diurnal heating should result in some shallow instability to support isolated to scattered showers from the morning into the early afternoon. Best coverage should be over the western Adirondacks where a lake influence will also be occurring. From the mid- afternoon into the evening, midlevel height rises will occur as the trough passes, which will support showers and clouds diminishing (although clouds may hang on over the higher terrain, particularly downwind of Lake Ontario). Highs today generally a few degrees above normal in the mid-30s to low 50s. A rain/snow mix is expected over the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks/southern Greens with minimal accumulation.

Tonight, a surface high will build over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians with a ridge extending into the local forecast area. This should support continued clearing, especially south of I-90, but clouds may still be stubborn across the higher terrain north of I-90. Lows generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s expected.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Sunday, flat midlevel ridge will crest over the forecast area, with flow becoming more meridional for the evening into Sunday night ahead of upstream troughing. A seasonably mild and tranquil day is expected as the surface high moves offshore the Delmarva, resulting in light south to southwest flow at low levels. Abundant sunshine is expected with highs near 40 to the mid-50s. Clouds will increase gradually Sunday night with a light southerly flow keeping lows on the mild side, mainly in the 30s (although typically good radiators may get a little lower).

Split upper flow will phase somewhat over the eastern CONUS Monday into Monday night. A lead shortwave, now evident as a closed low over NM, will eject northeastward from the Deep South to the Lake Erie region. It will become captured by a positively tilted trough digging into the mid and lower Mississippi Valley, eventually closing off over the Tennessee Valley Monday night. Surface low will develop downstream of the lead wave within the coupled portion of the split jet stream, moving generally along/just west of the Appalachian Crest Monday before stalling over western/central New York Monday night. This is the consensus of the 00Z/28 deterministic guidance, but run-to-run consistency of the storm track has been poor, and there is still a fair amount of spread among GEFS members. This forecast will take a consensus approach and lean on the NBM. The low level jet is modeled to strengthen rather dramatically in the southeast quadrant of the low as it spreads into our region Monday afternoon and evening. Models depict the 850 mb wind speeds anywhere from 40-50 kt (GEFS Mean) to 50-70 kt (NAM). These winds will usher in a moisture plume with PWATs increasing to 0.75-1.4 inches depending on model and location (highest likely south and east of Albany). The higher end of this range is +2 to +3 STDEV. This moist air will be lifted isentropically and augmented by the coupled jet structure to support a period of rainfall, moderate to heavy at times, 15-24Z Monday. The saving grace for keeping rainfall amounts/flooding threat in check may be the arrival of a midlevel dry slot as the moisture plume shifts east rather quickly, if model consensus proves accurate. At this time, do not see much more than an isolated urban/poor drainage flooding threat, but this threat could increase if models shift more west with the storm track. A few embedded rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out on the back edge of the steadier precip when the dry slot moves in. Some brief snow/mixed precip may occur across the higher terrain at the onset of precipitation before changing to mainly rain with little to no accumulation expected.

The strong southeasterly LLJ will both usher in mild temperatures and result in breezy conditions developing, particularly in easterly wind-prone areas of western New England and the Taconics. The rainfall should keep stronger winds from mixing to the surface, but wind advisories may have to be considered.

Monday night, precipitation will turn more showery with the midlevel dry slot overhead. It will be unseasonably mild in the warm sector of the occluding low, with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Upper low tracks north across western NY and leading edge of colder air tracks east and northeast with upper dynamics and fairly strong low level forcing, which will support good coverage of showers along the leading edge of the cold front. Highs Tuesday may be mid morning to midday before the front tracks through and temperatures fall in the afternoon. Winds shift to the southwest as the cold air spreads into our region. Highs Tuesday in the 50s but some 40s southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley.

Upper low lifts slowly north and northeast through eastern Canada Wednesday through Friday with overall cyclonic upper flow remaining over eastern North America. The cyclonic upper flow will keep temperatures near normal for highs. Any lake effect snow shower activity would be limited as mean flow from the surface through the boundary layer is expected to be southwest slowly trending to west and weakening Wednesday through Friday. Including some scattered snow shower activity in the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday but again, most activity may be directed north and west of the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley.

Highs Wednesday in the Lower 40s Hudson Valley to NW CT but 30s elsewhere. Highs Thursday and Friday in the mid to upper 40s but mid 30s to around 40 higher terrain. Keeping an eye on potential stormy time next weekend but lots of time to evaluate as there is a lot of spread in sources of guidance/ensembles and it is a week down the road.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Isolated to scattered showers approaching KALB, KGFL and KPSF and will affect the area through about 16Z. Showers are so light, no restrictions to visibility expected, however, even with predominant ceilings VFR, some brief intervals of MVFR ceilings are possible through 16Z. KPOU will be VFR through the entire period 12Z today through 12Z Sunday.

A weak cold front exits the region through the morning and any brief periods of MVFR ceilings will end late this morning. VFR conditions prevail this afternoon through tonight.

Light winds below 6 Kt through mid morning. Wind will west during the midday hours and increase to 7-14 Kt, continuing through this afternoon. Winds diminish to variable at less than 6 Kt this evening.

Outlook .

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHRA. SHSN. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

HYDROLOGY. A strong low pressure system tracking to our west will bring a plume of moisture into the region Monday, resulting in a period of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall, especially during the afternoon and evening. Totals are expected to range from 1-2.25 inches, highest over western New England and the eastern Catskills. Short residence time of the moisture plume is expected to limit the flash flood threat, but isolated urban/poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Thompson NEAR TERM . KL/Thompson SHORT TERM . Thompson LONG TERM . NAS AVIATION . NAS HYDROLOGY . Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 91 mi88 min WSW 1.9 48°F 1014 hPa42°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT21 mi64 minVar 510.00 miOvercast45°F37°F77%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDDH

Wind History from DDH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW6W3CalmW3CalmCalmS3SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmS3CalmSW4SW4SW4SW4SW4CalmCalm5
1 day agoSW5E3CalmSE3--CalmCalmSW3W43SW4W7SW6SW6S5CalmCalmW3SW3CalmCalmSW4CalmW4
2 days agoS8SE44S6S5S53CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4N3CalmNW33W5CalmNW34S6S8

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 03:30 AM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:08 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:59 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:54 PM EST     5.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:39 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.73.54.14.13.42.61.91.20.2-0.20.31.734.14.85.14.73.832.11.10.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sat -- 03:23 AM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:08 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:49 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:46 PM EST     5.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:29 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.83.64.143.32.51.810.1-0.20.51.93.24.24.95.14.63.72.820.900

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.