NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Expansive surface high pressure will move east to just off the New England coast overnight, where it will hang around this same general vicinity for quite some time, while remaining ridged back across the lower Great Lakes through at least this weekend. Aside from some thin wispy upper level cirrus and patchy areas of wildfire smoke in the upper levels passing overhead from time to time, this large area of surface high pressure will provide mainly clear skies tonight, although a weak mid level shortwave passing to our north across southern Quebec may bring some additional mid cloud toward the North Country and Saint Lawrence Valley later tonight. Otherwise, good radiational cooling conditions owed to mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for the formation of patchy Southern Tier valley fog again later tonight. Regarding temperatures, as the high tracks east to the New England coast overnight, weak southerly flow will bring continued gradual warming aloft that will help keep temps several degrees warmer tonight with mainly a range of 50s (upper 40s Tug Hill and western Dacks).

The southern fringe of a weak mid/upper level trough will pass across the area Thursday producing no more than some additional mid and upper level clouds, otherwise a mainly sunny and very warm mid- September day is on tap. Continued warming of our airmass will help boost highs on Thursday into the low to mid 80s across much of the area, with some mid and upper 70s hanging on across the interior hilltops of the Southern Tier and higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. These readings will be some 10 to 15 degrees above average.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Delightful late summer weather will be firmly in place throughout the northeastern United States during this period, due to the forecast area being directly beneath the core of a mid-level ridge.
This anticyclone will be part of a Rex block that will have its axis to our west during the bulk of the period. The other (equatorward)
component to this block will be the extratropical remnants of Hurricane Francine, centered over the Lower Mississippi valley.

The aforementioned ridge to the north act like a brick wall, blocking the northward push of moisture from Francine. With the help of widespread subsidence, skies will mainly be cloud free through the period. However, clear skies are not forecasted as a fair amount of elevated smoke from a wildfire in Idaho will blanket the area Thursday night through at least Friday night. Specifically across the area, smoke should be most noticeable near and east of Lake Ontario, with the heart of the smoke plume likely over Canada.

All of this being said, it will feel more like late July than mid September late this week and early this weekend, with daytime highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows of 55 to 60. Daytime highs will average a full 10 degrees above normal values.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The protective Rex block (as mentioned previously) will be in the process of breaking down, or at least becoming reoriented heading into Sunday. While this will begin to allow for moisture to filter back into the region, ensembles and certainly operational guidance packages are insisting that fair warm weather will persist, which looks quite reasonable.

The deep area of high pressure that made up the northward component of the block is forecast to drift to the east across our forecast area to New England by Wednesday. While the last vestiges of Francine will be well to the west of the forecast area over the Upper Mississippi valley, a new moisture source to the southeast will take the spotlight. The next tropical system could be making its way northward from the Southeast coast, and with a negatively oriented ridge in place over our region, tropical moisture over the Carolinas will gradually advect northward across the Mid Atlantic region. This could translate into increased cloud cover and some rain as early as Tuesday night or Wednesday.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Widespread VFR conditions and light winds expected right through Thursday evening with high pressure resulting in fair dry weather.
The exception will be the continued potential for valley fog to develop again later tonight lasting through mid morning Thursday across the Western Southern Tier. This will have the possibility to impact KJHW with localized MVFR/IFR VSBYs during this timeframe, but is not a guarantee.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...VFR. Patchy fog with local IFR each late night and morning, mainly across the river valleys of the Southern Tier.

MARINE
High pressure dominating the region will result in mainly light winds and negligible wave action on the Lakes right through the upcoming weekend. The light winds and strong differential heating will allow lake breezes to form most days, with a local onshore flow developing each afternoon.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.