Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North East, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
An occluded front extending east from the low over IN/OH will continue to track NNE across the region today. It will bring with it a swath of light to at times moderate rain to the eastern Great Lakes region. This area of rain over Western NY at the moment will reach the eastern Lake Ontario region by later this afternoon. As it advances NNE a dry slot will then swing in behind the steadier precipitation across Western NY beginning later this morning and early this afternoon. This will bring a period of less steady precipitation or even a break (dry time) for parts of Western NY.
That said...don't think it's over there's more on the way for this evening and tonight. With this first wave of precipitation QPF amounts will range from 0.75" up to 1.00" before we see the aforementioned break. Given latest guidance the next wave of precipitation will race in here after 21Z. We even could see some a few rumbles of thunder and heavier precipitation with the next wave, especially across the S. Tier.

Tonight...low pressure will near the western end of Lake Erie, with steady stream of moisture wrapping in across the region. Expect periods of rain overnight as the low slowly spins away to the west.
Overall...rainfall amounts will generally range from a quarter to a half of an inch.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Expect cool dreary weather for the later half of the week due to a deep broad upper level trough centered across the Great Lakes Thursday morning will support a couple of closed lows to rotate across the eastern Great Lakes and New England through Friday night.
At the surface a closed low over Lake Erie Thursday will gradually shift east through Thursday night before merging with a deep coastal low off of the New England coast Friday. All of this being said, a pool of moisture will remain across the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night supporting widespread rain. Then Friday, as a lobe of DPVA moves south out of Canada and meets the pool of moisture, supporting widespread rain to continue across the region.
Considering the dreary couple of days, rainfall amounts will average between a quarter to a half of an inch across the region.

Temperatures Thursday and Friday will average below normal for mid to late May. Highs will be a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal with highs in the mid to upper 50s both Thursday and Friday. Lows will also be below normal but only a few to 5 degrees below normal ranging in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Broad upper level troughing will persist across the Northeast through the weekend. Moist, cyclonic flow will support chances for showers, especially during the afternoon and early evening (due to peak heating and diurnal effects). The trough will begin to flatten out Sunday night through Monday, causing moisture to be stripped away from the area, and therefore resulting in mostly dry weather Monday.

Looking further ahead, another closed low will likely shift into the Ohio Valley Tuesday and into mid next week supporting another bout of unsettled weather.

Overall, cool air will continue to rotate across the area supporting below normal temperatures this weekend and into next week.

AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR cigs will deteriorate to MVFR-IFR today, this will occur as the occluded front moves across area TAF sites. An isolated rumble of thunder also cannot be ruled out across the Southern Tier, including KJHW later this afternoon, but confidence in this occuring at the airfield is low.

Tonight...low pressure nearing the western end of Lake Erie will bring periods of rain with IFR to LIFR.

Outlook
Thursday through Saturday
MVFR to IFR with showers.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

MARINE
A low pressure system moving into the eastern Great Lakes from the Ohio Valley will move slowly eastward through Friday. This will cause easterly winds to slowly strengthen today. The highest wave action will stay mainly offshore through tonight night, but Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected along the western shoreline of Lake Ontario through tonight with choppy conditions on Lake Erie south of Sturgeon Point.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042.