Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North East, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:26PM Friday August 14, 2020 6:37 AM EDT (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:38AMMoonset 4:17PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ169 Expires:202008141430;;425399 Fzus61 Kcle 140754 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh Issued By National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 354 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis.. High pressure 30.30 inches will remain centered over western quebec today, and extend back across the eastern great lakes. This area of high will move across new england this weekend as a trough averaging 29.80 inches moves into the western great lakes. A cold front will move southeast across lake erie Sunday afternoon. A trough averaging 29.90 inches will linger back west over northern ohio and northern pennsylvania Monday. A warm front will move northeast across the lake Tuesday. Lez061-166>169-141430- lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny- lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh- lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh- lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh- lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny- 354 am edt Fri aug 14 2020
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms early. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ169


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East , PA
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location: 43.17, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 140653 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY 253 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. An upper level low slowly passing across the Ohio Valley will trigger a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight and Saturday. A cold front will advance through the area Sunday, ushering in much more comfortable levels of humidity for the start of the work week. An area of high pressure will dominate through mid week with much of the time rain-free.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. This early morning regional radars display a few showers and thunderstorms over the warm open waters of Lake Erie. Greatest instability, and weak surface convergence will reside over these open waters of Lake Erie this early morning . with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible through about 12-14Z.

Elsewhere much of the region will remain dry through the morning with a mix of clouds and sunshine.

An upper level shortwave over the Lower Ohio Valley this morning will slowly track eastward across the Ohio Valley this period. By this afternoon instability will be increasing with MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/KG across far western zones and sharply decreasing eastward. It is along this instability gradient across western zones, and ahead of the upper level shortwave that showers and thunderstorms will likely form this afternoon. Activity will remain scattered . thus will maintain chance PoPs to the west . and slight chance or lower farther to the east and north. Upper level winds remain weak, and with PWATS around 1.5 inches to our far south . a downburst of rain will be the greatest concern.

Isolated to scattered storms will taper down through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. However with the upper level low still in close proximity to our south and lingering instability a few showers or isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across southern zones tonight. Temperatures tonight will be very similar to this early morning, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/. Upper level trough will shift east across the area Saturday with an associated area of positive vorticity advection. Moisture associated with this upper level feature is expected to move east across the area as well by Saturday evening. A weak wave of low pressure at the surface will move east across the Ohio Valley with an inverted surface trough extending north across the local area Saturday night. Due to the upper level support and wave of low pressure along with the aid of day time heating, expecting showers and a few thunderstorms to develop Saturday and then lingering into Saturday night. A cold front is expected to move east across the area Sunday afternoon with a bit of a surge of moisture associated with the front and convergence along the boundary. This should bring a line of showers and thunderstorms east across the local area during the afternoon. Once front shifts east Sunday night, threat for showers and thunderstorms will diminish Sunday night into Monday morning. Then, by Monday afternoon, a surface trough and deep digging negatively tilted upper level trough will move over the local area. Cold air advection and upper level support will likely cause some lake induced showers over the northeast. Temperatures through the period will be in the middle to upper 70s most areas; except lower 80s extreme west Saturday. Lows Saturday night will be in the lower to middle 60s and highs Sunday in the middle to upper 70s east and upper 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. Lows Sunday night will be in the lower to middle 60s followed by highs in the middle to upper 70s Monday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Large upper level trough will shift east of the area Monday night into Tuesday. Another upper level positively tilted trough will linger behind into Wednesday as an upper level high pressure over the Plains States continues to amplify and remain nearly stationary. This whole upper level pattern remains somewhat unchanged through Thursday but there are some signs the trough in thee east will make an attempt to break down slightly over southern Canada and cut-off the trough by the end of the week. Weak surface high pressure will build southeast over the eastern Great Lakes during this forecast period and will for the most part keep the forecast area dry. Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s each night and highs will be in the middle to upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday and warming a bit for Thursday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. VFR flight conditions for the 06Z TAF cycle. Small risk for some radiation fog between 08-12z, mainly at KFDY/KMFD where dew points are higher. Otherwise, expect SCT-BKN150-250.

Outlook . Non-VFR with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday night.

MARINE. Winds on the Lake today will remain northeast, with a large area of high pressure over western Quebec. Winds are again expected to increase to around small craft range, with these winds not decreasing in strength until the second half of tonight.

Otherwise, light southeast flow develops into the weekend. A cold front is expected to move east across the area Sunday afternoon and this will result in some cold air advection to the area. There is the possibility for some waterspout activity Monday with the cold air advection. Winds will diminish and become light north to northwest by Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT early this morning for OHZ009>012. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ144>147.

SYNOPSIS . Thomas NEAR TERM . Thomas SHORT TERM . Lombardy LONG TERM . Lombardy AVIATION . TMA MARINE . Thomas/Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 75 mi38 min ENE 12 G 13 71°F 1018 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA77 mi47 minE 410.00 miFair71°F55°F59%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE4NE8E7NE8N12NE9N12NE17
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NE11NE15NE9E7NE8NE6E5E5SE7E3NE6E4
1 day agoCalmCalm3E6N8N7N8N10N10N9N6N8NE7NE7NE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoS10S8SW9SW13W14
G18
W9W8W10W9W11W10W9W7W3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmNE4CalmS3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.