NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LOZ044 Expires:202311281015;;518804 Fzus51 Kbuf 280223 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 923 pm est Mon nov 27 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-281015- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 923 pm est Mon nov 27 2023
.gale warning in effect until 7 am est Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..West gales to 35 knots. A chance of lake effect snow showers late this evening, then lake effect snow with some rumbles of Thunder possible after midnight. Waves 12 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Tuesday..West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 30 knots in the afternoon. Lake effect snow with some rumbles of Thunder possible. Waves 11 to 16 feet subsiding to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers with some rumbles of Thunder possible. Waves 10 to 13 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely with scattered Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers Thursday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Rain likely during the day, then rain showers likely Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 280920 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 420 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow showers will continue this morning across most of Central NY into the northern tier of PA. A more significant lake effect snow band will drop south this afternoon off of Lake Ontario and impact Oneida, Onondaga, Cayuga and Madison counties with periods of snow. Cold weather will continue into Wednesday, before warming up late in the week. The next weather system brings mainly rain to the area on Friday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

415 AM Update

Main concerns in this period are the locally heavy lake effect snow, isolated snow squalls this afternoon and cold wind chills/temperatures through Wednesday. Lake effect snow warnings are in effect for northern Oneida, Onondaga and now Madison counties...today through early Wednesday morning. Winter weather advisories for lake effect snow and areas of blowing snow are also in effect for Southern Oneida, and now Southern Cayuga counties, starting later this morning through late tonight.

Current water vapor loop shows a broad, expansive and cold upper level trough centered over the Northeastern US at this time. A shortwave is evident across Lower Michigan and souther Ontario that will press into our area later today. The current flow is around 260-270 degrees, which is bring one weaker band of snow showers all the way off of Lake Erie and into the Twin Tiers/Susquehanna region of NY...this could bring a localized dusting to 1 inch by daybreak or mid-morning. The other, more intense snow band is off of Lake Ontario and is currently mainly impacting the Tug Hill plateau, but is also scraping far northern Oneida county...near Florence, Point Rock and Woodgate.
This lake effect band is forecast to very slowly inch south through mid to late morning, perhaps getting into Rome around this time (9-10 AM). Then, as the shortwave drops through from the north, it will displace the lake effect band further south, quickly dropping into the I-90 corridor from Syracuse to Utica by late morning or midday. This snow band could be quite intense with 1, to perhaps 2 inch per hour rates for a brief time. The lake effect band should continue marching south of Syracuse and Utica by afternoon, becoming displaced briefly from the lake and diverging south toward the Twin Tiers and Catskills before merging with additional scattered snow showers.

However, a new band of lake effect snow is expected to develop on a 300-310 degree flow behind the shortwave front late this afternoon and evening...and this looks to become well established through Onondaga and Madison counties during the evening hours, before gradually lifting northward back into Oneida county during the predawn hours early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be cold this afternoon and tonight, mainly in the 20s and forecast soundings show excellent lift within a well saturated snow grown layer. Therefore, snow to liquid ratios could approach 15-18:1 especially this evening. The exact location of the heaviest snow band remains uncertain at this time...but if current hi-res model guidance is correct, a band of 4-8+ inches of heavy snow would form from Baldwinsville southeast to Syracuse, Cazenovia and Morrisville. Snowfall rates could again be 1-2"/hr in the heaviest portion of this snow band. Confidence was high enough in this scenario to add Madison County into the Lake Effect Snow Warning. Storm total snowfall still looks to be 7-14 inches for northern Oneida, with 5-10 inches in Onondaga and western Madison counties. The advisory zones will see between 2 to 6 inches of snow, along with some blowing snow.

The above mentioned shortwave will also bring scattered snow showers and possibly some isolated snow squalls as low level lapse rates are very steep...nearing 10C/km along with up to 70 J/kg of MUCAPE and gusty boundary layer winds. There is also low level moisture evident in the forecast soundings, with RH greater than 80% up to 10-12k ft agl. These could impact the Twin Tiers and especially Northeast PA this afternoon.
Temperatures will be cold enough that the snow may stick to untreated surfaces, or it could even partially melt then refreeze...this would lead to very slick conditions.

It will be very cold tonight and blustery, with the lake effect snow continuing. Overnight lows fall into the 10s and lower 20s with minimum wind chills in the single digits to teens.

The lake effect snow lifts north of our CWA by around sunrise Wednesday morning, with a break in any precip for most of the day on Wednesday. A warm front does lift through the area out ahead of a low pressure system passing well to the north across Canada...there is a chance for some snow showers to develop in the warm air advection regime Wednesday afternoon across Central NY, but any amounts would be very light. It remains cold on Wednesday, with highs only in the upper 20s to mid-30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
340 AM Update...

Lake effect snow showers are expected to lift north and out of our region Wednesday night as low level winds shift to the southwest.
Temperatures overnight are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s. Brief zonal flow aloft will bring drier conditions on Thursday along with warm air advection. This allows temperatures to climb back into the low to mid 40s in the afternoon. Skies are expected to clear temporarily before the next system starts to move in Thursday night into early Friday morning. Lows overnight remain mostly above freezing except for areas with higher elevation terrain.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
340 AM Update...

A weak wave of low pressure from the southwest starts to track into our region on Friday. Meanwhile an additional weak coastal low develops and also tracks into our region. Both systems are expected to interact with one another increasing pops over our region. Most of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain with temperatures ranging in the upper 30s to low 40s. A cold front will then cross our region Friday night bringing temperatures close to freezing overnight. This is where we could see a mix of rain and snow showers, although if colder air pushes in a little sooner behind the front, then some light snow accumulations may occur.

High pressure/ridging builds in on Saturday with warm air advection taking hold through the weekend and into next week. Another system is expected the beginning of next week, however, forecast details will be dependent on the eventual track of the low. At this time, most model guidance agrees on a warm solution with precipitation falling as mostly rain.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
100 AM Update

Snow showers continue across portions of Central NY early this morning, with a weaker band off of Lake Erie extending across the ITH, PEO and Cortland area, bringing occasional MVFR VSBYs.
The stronger Lake Ontario snow band is remaining north of our TAF sites for now, up across Oswego, Jefferson and Lewis counties...this will eventually drop south toward RME by 8-12z this morning and SYR by around 15z.

With mostly WSW flow, lake effect showers will continue to spread across the area through the overnight hours. ITH/ELM/BGM will have a chance to see temporary MVFR conditions as these light showers pass overhead through about 12z this morning. AVP is expected to remain VFR.

Winds shift during the morning hours, bringing W/E oriented bands to NW/SE orientation. This brings IFR conditions to RME and SYR during the morning hours and lasting through the afternoon at SYR, but bumping to MVFR at RME as the band shifts SW of the terminal by mid-afternoon (21z). ITH and BGM could see snow showers during this period, but it will depend on where the snow bands move to and given their narrow nature, too much uncertainty is present to go any lower than MVFR conditions at these terminals. If the snow bands shift a little farther SW, then IFR conditions will definitely be possible at these terminals as well. Some scattered snow showers may make their way down to AVP during the afternoon hours but confidence in this is not high enough to include any restrictions in this set of TAFs here.

Outlook...

Late tonight...Lake effect snow bands from Lake Ontario will continue to impact RME and SYR with restrictions likely into the overnight hours. Additional lighter lake effect bands may bring restrictions to ITH, BGM, and possibly ELM in the evening, diminishing later in the night.

Wednesday...Possible lingering restrictions at SYR and RME as lake effect bands shift north in the morning, then becoming VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday... mainly VFR; restrictions possible late in the day or at night with an approaching system and associated rain.

Saturday...Possible restrictions from Lake Effect snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ017.
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ018-036.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ037.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Montague, NY,