Marine Weather and Tides
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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|Sunrise 6:25AM||Sunset 8:15PM||Monday August 19, 2019 12:36 PM EDT (16:36 UTC)||Moonrise 9:29PM||Moonset 9:12AM||Illumination 83%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewiston, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbuf 191434|
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1034 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
Warm and muggy conditions will remain over the region through the
middle of the week. A weak high pressure ridge will provide mainly
dry weather outside of a few widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms today and Tuesday. A strong cold front that will pass
through the region late Wednesday will then introduce a cooler and
notably more comfortable airmass to our region for the second half
of the week.
Near term through tonight
This morning's short wave trough and associated weak cold
frontal passage is nearing completion on the eastern fringe of
the forecast area this morning. Shower activity has been
relegated to eastern lewis county, and it should be out of there
even within the next hour or two. Behind this front, slightly
lower dewpoints won't make the air mass feel much more
comfortable, however they will make it a bit less unstable
today. Thus, shower chances really decrease behind the front.
Some lake breeze activity is possible around peak daytime
heating, however it should remain fairly isolated. Otherwise,
lake convergence zone clouds off of lake erie should break up by
afternoon, resulting in partly cloudy and warm conditions for
the entire CWA by afternoon.
Weak high pressure will build across the great lakes region
tonight, which will push the weak frontal boundary southward
into pennsylvania. This will result in dry weather tonight, a
north to south clearing trend. This will provide good radiational
cooling conditions and also the risk for some fog. This will
most likely develop across the typical southern tier valleys as
long as there are ample breaks in the cloud cover. Low temperatures
will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Tuesday, a weak bubble of high pressure will be over the area, with
this feature pushing a frontal boundary southward across
pennsylvania. This will allow a drier airmass with less humidity to
settle across our region to start the short-term period. As this
high advances eastward through the day, a southerly return flow will
lift the frontal boundary to our south northward as a warm front. A
few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across wny Tuesday
Shortwave timing has been key the past few days, with each wave
flaring up convection. A shortwave will approach wny late Tuesday
night and this should again blossom showers and a few thunderstorms
late Tuesday night and towards dawn Wednesday morning. There will be
plenty of instability to start the day, with MUCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 j kg.
As this wave passes through the region, convection will likely wane
some behind the shortwave. We will still remain very unstable and
storms are expected to again blossom in the afternoon as lift ahead
of a sharp upper level shortwave arrives. As winds aloft begin to
increase ahead of a cold front the combination of instability
increasing towards 2000 j kg in the mid levels and a pre frontal
trough will likely produce strong thunderstorms across the region.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat, and while CAPE is
impressive aloft... The higher wbz heights of around 11k feet may
limit hail. However the warmer lower levels (deeper warm cloud
depth) and pwats nearing 1.75 inches will make for favorable
conditions for heavy rain.
Storms will advance towards eastern lake ontario region Wednesday
evening, and likely remain on the stronger side as deep instability
Showers and thunderstorms will be swept eastward later Wednesday
night as a cold front slices across the area. This front will also
bring lowering humidity.
Long term Thursday through Sunday
In the wake of a strong cold front... A much cooler and drier airmass
will continue to overspread our region Thursday and Thursday night...
with 850 mb temperatures falling to within a couple degrees either
side of +7c. The combination of lingering secondary surface troughing
and a digging upper level trough could lead to a few more isolated
to widely scattered showers on Thursday... With the cooler airmass
and loss of diurnal influences then potentially supporting a weak lake
response east and southeast of lake ontario Thursday night into early
Friday... With this limited by the rather dry nature of the airmass.
Otherwise... The Thursday-Friday time frame will be dry and notably
cooler as expansive surface-based ridging slowly builds southeastward
across the great lakes. Expect highs to mostly be in the lower half of
the 70s both days... Though some of the higher terrain may see readings
confined to the upper 60s. Meanwhile lows will be mainly in the 50s...
with some upper 40s possible across interior portions of the southern
tier and north country.
After that... The axis of the aforementioned surface ridge will crest
across our region on Saturday... Then will drift to the atlantic
coastline on Sunday. This will provide our region with continued
fair dry weather both days... With diurnal airmass modification
and eventually warm air advection allowing highs to climb back into
the mid to upper 70s on Saturday... And to the upper 70s to lower 80s
Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
There will be some lingering showers, with patchy MVFR CIGS due
to lingering low level moisture. There may be a brief period
with lower ifr CIGS northeast and east of lake erie at kbuf and
kjhw this morning due to moisture pooling just ahead of a weak
Otherwise, today will be mainly dry, with widely scattered showers
andVFR flight conditions by this afternoon. High pressure will
build into the region tonight with mainlyVFR conditions. The
only exception is where patchy radiation fog develops. This
will likely occur at kjhw, and may occur briefly at other
Wednesday...VFR with areas of ifr in thunderstorms. Some storms
may be strong with gusty winds and hail.
Thursday and Friday... MainlyVFR.
While winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory
criteria throughout the lower great lakes today... They will freshen
somewhat. This will especially be the case on the eastern half of
lake ontario where moderate westerlies will generate choppy
conditions for the open waters and the nearshore waters north of
Winds will weaken this evening and become light and variable
overnight through most of Tuesday... As high pressure will drift
across the region.
A cold front will cross the lower great lakes late Wednesday and
Wednesday evening. This will generate numerous showers and
thunderstorms... With some storms likely producing strong gusty
Strengthening northwesterlies in the wake of the cold front will
lead to solid small craft advisories for the lake ontario nearshore
waters Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile... A shorter fetch and
lower wind speeds may allow conditions to remain below small craft
advisory criteria on lake erie.
Tides coastal flooding
A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes late
Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Strengthening northwesterlies
in the wake of the front may combine with increased wave action
and already high lake levels to produce more significant
shoreline erosion and flooding Wednesday night into Thursday
evening. A lake shore flood watch has been issued from niagara
county to oswego county to address this increased risk.
Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
evening for nyz004>006.
Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for nyz001>003.
Synopsis... Apffel rsh
near term... Apffel fries
short term... Thomas
long term... Jjr
tides coastal flooding... Rsh
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY||17 mi||55 min||75°F||1017 hPa|
|BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY||30 mi||49 min||WSW 13 G 16||73°F||76°F||1017.4 hPa||60°F|
|45142 - Port Colborne||31 mi||97 min||W 9.7 G 12||73°F||74°F||2 ft||1016.8 hPa (+1.9)|
|OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY||32 mi||37 min||W 11 G 14||72°F||1016.6 hPa (+1.4)|
|PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY||37 mi||55 min||73°F||1016.9 hPa|
|45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax||43 mi||97 min||SW 12 G 16||71°F||70°F||2 ft||1015 hPa (+2.2)|
|DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY||48 mi||37 min||WSW 11 G 15||74°F||1017.3 hPa (+1.3)|
Wind History for Buffalo, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY||19 mi||44 min||W 7||10.00 mi||Overcast||75°F||64°F||71%||1015.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KIAG
Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||S||S||SW||SW|
|2 days ago||NE||NE||N||N||NE||Calm||Calm||SW||SW||SW||S||S||S||SE||SE||E||W||SE||SE |
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
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Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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