Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lewiston, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:15PM Monday August 19, 2019 12:36 PM EDT (16:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:29PMMoonset 9:12AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 1028 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Becoming mainly clear.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds. Sunny.
Tuesday night..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day.
Friday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ030 Expires:201908192115;;469314 FZUS51 KBUF 191428 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1028 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-192115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewiston, NY
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location: 43.19, -79.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 191434
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1034 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
Warm and muggy conditions will remain over the region through the
middle of the week. A weak high pressure ridge will provide mainly
dry weather outside of a few widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms today and Tuesday. A strong cold front that will pass
through the region late Wednesday will then introduce a cooler and
notably more comfortable airmass to our region for the second half
of the week.

Near term through tonight
This morning's short wave trough and associated weak cold
frontal passage is nearing completion on the eastern fringe of
the forecast area this morning. Shower activity has been
relegated to eastern lewis county, and it should be out of there
even within the next hour or two. Behind this front, slightly
lower dewpoints won't make the air mass feel much more
comfortable, however they will make it a bit less unstable
today. Thus, shower chances really decrease behind the front.

Some lake breeze activity is possible around peak daytime
heating, however it should remain fairly isolated. Otherwise,
lake convergence zone clouds off of lake erie should break up by
afternoon, resulting in partly cloudy and warm conditions for
the entire CWA by afternoon.

Weak high pressure will build across the great lakes region
tonight, which will push the weak frontal boundary southward
into pennsylvania. This will result in dry weather tonight, a
north to south clearing trend. This will provide good radiational
cooling conditions and also the risk for some fog. This will
most likely develop across the typical southern tier valleys as
long as there are ample breaks in the cloud cover. Low temperatures
will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Tuesday, a weak bubble of high pressure will be over the area, with
this feature pushing a frontal boundary southward across
pennsylvania. This will allow a drier airmass with less humidity to
settle across our region to start the short-term period. As this
high advances eastward through the day, a southerly return flow will
lift the frontal boundary to our south northward as a warm front. A
few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across wny Tuesday
evening.

Shortwave timing has been key the past few days, with each wave
flaring up convection. A shortwave will approach wny late Tuesday
night and this should again blossom showers and a few thunderstorms
late Tuesday night and towards dawn Wednesday morning. There will be
plenty of instability to start the day, with MUCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 j kg.

As this wave passes through the region, convection will likely wane
some behind the shortwave. We will still remain very unstable and
storms are expected to again blossom in the afternoon as lift ahead
of a sharp upper level shortwave arrives. As winds aloft begin to
increase ahead of a cold front the combination of instability
increasing towards 2000 j kg in the mid levels and a pre frontal
trough will likely produce strong thunderstorms across the region.

Damaging winds will be the primary threat, and while CAPE is
impressive aloft... The higher wbz heights of around 11k feet may
limit hail. However the warmer lower levels (deeper warm cloud
depth) and pwats nearing 1.75 inches will make for favorable
conditions for heavy rain.

Storms will advance towards eastern lake ontario region Wednesday
evening, and likely remain on the stronger side as deep instability
remains.

Showers and thunderstorms will be swept eastward later Wednesday
night as a cold front slices across the area. This front will also
bring lowering humidity.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
In the wake of a strong cold front... A much cooler and drier airmass
will continue to overspread our region Thursday and Thursday night...

with 850 mb temperatures falling to within a couple degrees either
side of +7c. The combination of lingering secondary surface troughing
and a digging upper level trough could lead to a few more isolated
to widely scattered showers on Thursday... With the cooler airmass
and loss of diurnal influences then potentially supporting a weak lake
response east and southeast of lake ontario Thursday night into early
Friday... With this limited by the rather dry nature of the airmass.

Otherwise... The Thursday-Friday time frame will be dry and notably
cooler as expansive surface-based ridging slowly builds southeastward
across the great lakes. Expect highs to mostly be in the lower half of
the 70s both days... Though some of the higher terrain may see readings
confined to the upper 60s. Meanwhile lows will be mainly in the 50s...

with some upper 40s possible across interior portions of the southern
tier and north country.

After that... The axis of the aforementioned surface ridge will crest
across our region on Saturday... Then will drift to the atlantic
coastline on Sunday. This will provide our region with continued
fair dry weather both days... With diurnal airmass modification
and eventually warm air advection allowing highs to climb back into
the mid to upper 70s on Saturday... And to the upper 70s to lower 80s
on Sunday.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
There will be some lingering showers, with patchy MVFR CIGS due
to lingering low level moisture. There may be a brief period
with lower ifr CIGS northeast and east of lake erie at kbuf and
kjhw this morning due to moisture pooling just ahead of a weak
cold front.

Otherwise, today will be mainly dry, with widely scattered showers
andVFR flight conditions by this afternoon. High pressure will
build into the region tonight with mainlyVFR conditions. The
only exception is where patchy radiation fog develops. This
will likely occur at kjhw, and may occur briefly at other
locations.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...VFR with areas of ifr in thunderstorms. Some storms
may be strong with gusty winds and hail.

Thursday and Friday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
While winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory
criteria throughout the lower great lakes today... They will freshen
somewhat. This will especially be the case on the eastern half of
lake ontario where moderate westerlies will generate choppy
conditions for the open waters and the nearshore waters north of
oswego.

Winds will weaken this evening and become light and variable
overnight through most of Tuesday... As high pressure will drift
across the region.

A cold front will cross the lower great lakes late Wednesday and
Wednesday evening. This will generate numerous showers and
thunderstorms... With some storms likely producing strong gusty
winds.

Strengthening northwesterlies in the wake of the cold front will
lead to solid small craft advisories for the lake ontario nearshore
waters Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile... A shorter fetch and
lower wind speeds may allow conditions to remain below small craft
advisory criteria on lake erie.

Tides coastal flooding
A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes late
Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Strengthening northwesterlies
in the wake of the front may combine with increased wave action
and already high lake levels to produce more significant
shoreline erosion and flooding Wednesday night into Thursday
evening. A lake shore flood watch has been issued from niagara
county to oswego county to address this increased risk.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
evening for nyz004>006.

Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for nyz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel rsh
near term... Apffel fries
short term... Thomas
long term... Jjr
aviation... Apffel
marine... Rsh
tides coastal flooding... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 17 mi55 min 75°F 1017 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 30 mi49 min WSW 13 G 16 73°F 76°F1017.4 hPa60°F
45142 - Port Colborne 31 mi97 min W 9.7 G 12 73°F 74°F2 ft1016.8 hPa (+1.9)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 32 mi37 min W 11 G 14 72°F 1016.6 hPa (+1.4)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 37 mi55 min 73°F 1016.9 hPa
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 43 mi97 min SW 12 G 16 71°F 70°F2 ft1015 hPa (+2.2)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 48 mi37 min WSW 11 G 15 74°F 1017.3 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi44 minW 710.00 miOvercast75°F64°F71%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13SW10SW10SW12SW13
G22
SW16SW10SW9S6S8S7--S9--SW7----W7W9W8W10W9--W7
1 day agoS9S10S13SW17SW12
G20
SW10SW11SW12SW8SW5SW6SW7SW4S3Calm--CalmCalmSW9SE3----S7S9
G15
2 days agoNE7NE3N4--N7NE6CalmCalm--SW7SW9--SW5S3S6S7--SE4SE5E3--W4SE7SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.