Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dover, NH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
A late season Nor'easter continues to track into the Gulf of Maine tonight, spreading rain from south to north, bringing gusty winds along the coast, and producing some high elevation snow. The steadier rainfall is moving into southeast New Hampshire this afternoon, and will continue to expand northeastward through the evening. Breezy conditions have already been felt along the coast today, but winds will continue to pick up through the evening hours a the low deepens and moves closer. Winds gust to around 40 to 45 mph through the overnight. Some power outages are possible now that the leaves are out on the trees. Breezy conditions can be expected inland as well, but the strongest gusts remain confined to the coast.

Cold air aloft allows the higher elevations above 1500 feet to see some snowfall tonight, with accumulations generally confined to the higher peaks of the White Mountains.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
The low continues to move through the Gulf of Maine on Friday.
The steady shield of rain becomes more periodic by the morning, with bands of rain becoming more scattered through the day. The rain also becomes more showery in nature as the upper level low approaches from the west, and the surface low drifts into the eastern Gulf of Maine.

The bulk of the rainfall will have fallen by tomorrow morning, but with the showers through the remainder of the day amounts generally end up around 1.0-1.5 inches south of the mountains, and less than an inch north of the mountains. The highest rainfall amounts are still expected through the Seacoast and into southwest Maine where some of the heavier bands of rain reach.

Showers become more widely scattered through the overnight tomorrow night, but will linger into Saturday morning as the low only slowly moves into the Canadian Maritimes. Temperatures don't fall much from Friday's chilly highs, with lows generally in the 30s across the north, and 40s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Overview: Some wraparound showers possible on Saturday as a low moves northeastward. A quick moving shortwave moves southeasterly over the northeast, bringing a chance to see an isolated shower or two over New Hampshire Sunday. Skies clear for the first half of next week, though a diurnal shower or two can't be ruled out across western NH. Towards the end of the week, two upper-level lows merge over New England. The upper-level lows could bring more unsettled and cooler weather next weekend.

Details: Low pressure retreats to the northeast through the day Saturday. Continued overcast skies will keep high temperatures cool, with 50s likely across NH and western ME. Wraparound convective showers are likely as the environment shows a small layer of low-level instability, with ~50J of CAPE up to about 800mb/7000ft. Light winds across the vertical profile should make showers move southeasterly, and should continue through Saturday evening. Light northwest flow should allow for cool lows Saturday night, with lows in the 40s.

Skies start to clear out on Sunday, as high pressure moves in. The clearing skies should also allow for a noticeably warmer day, high temperatures make it into the low 60s for most. A weak shortwave from the northwest will bring a chance to see an isolated shower or two in the afternoon. Skies then continue to clear out Sunday night. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for radiational cooling, with lows again in the mid 40s.

Temperatures look to warm in the first-half of next week, with upper- level ridging moving in from the west. A few diurnally-driven showers remain possible in the afternoons, though Monday-Wednesday should be dry and mostly clear for most. Generally looking at upper 60s and lower 70s, though Tuesday is forecast to be the warmest day of the three, with low to mid-70s.

Towards the end of next week, two upper-level lows arrive in New England. One comes from the west, with unsettled weather arriving on Thursday. This low could merge with another upper-level low from the north on Friday. The two upper-level lows over the area next weekend may suggest that another wet and cool weekend is on tap.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...Conditions continue to lower to IFR through the evening as rain overspreads the region. Gusty northeast winds of around 25-30kt are expected along coastal terminals tonight.
Some improvement is likely through the day tomorrow, but IFR to MVFR likely prevail most of the day with ongoing showers. These conditions continue Friday night, with the showers becoming less frequent overnight.

Long Term...
Ceilings and visibility likely improve during the day Saturday, as a low moves out of the area. Mostly VFR is expected afterwards through the first half of next week as high pressure moves in from the west.

MARINE
Short Term...Northeasterly gales continue into Friday morning as low pressure moves through the Gulf of Maine. The low only slowly moves into the Canadian Maritimes by early Saturday, with SCA conditions continuing after the gales through Friday night.

Long Term...
Seas of 2-5ft are expected Saturday, diminishing to 2-3ft by Sunday morning. Northwest winds of 8-12kts are likely through the weekend, diminishing through the day Sunday. Fair marine conditions are expected through the first half of next week, as high pressure moves in.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As winds and seas increase today they will begin to drive a growing storm surge thru tonight. Guidance is forecasting a surge somewhere between 1 and 2 ft...peaking around or after midnight. The good news is that this is going to occur closer to low tide than high tide. However water levels approaching action stage and large near-shore waves could lead to splash over at the more vulnerable coastal locations tonight and again Friday morning.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for MEZ023>028.
NH...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Gale Warning until noon EDT Friday for ANZ150>154.