Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bridgeport, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
945 AM Update...

A few minor adjustments made at this time, mainly to winds as they were a little high over portions of the area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

640 AM Update

Forecast is on track, with the rain moving in on schedule and only minor tweaks to sky cover and temperatures over the next few hours based on obs and trends.

400 AM Update

A low pressure system will move into the area from the upper Ohio Valley today. Clouds will steadily increase this morning, with rain developing across the Wyoming Valley and Central Southern Tier by mid-morning...spreading north and east to Binghamton, Ithaca, Penn Yan and Honesdale by around 11 AM. The rain then reaches Oneonta, Norwich and Auburn by 1-2 PM and finally Syracuse/Rome by 4-5 PM.
It will be cool, with well below average temperatures today; as highs only reach the low to mid-50s for most locations...except near 60 further north at Syracuse, Utica and Rome. Rainfall amounts by sunset this evening range from 0.10" at Utica-Rome....to between 0.25 to 0.75 inches across the Susquehanna region, Twin Tiers, Catskills and all of Northeast PA. Southeast winds increase between 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph making it breezy out there.

Additional periods of rain continue all night tonight, as decaying MCS move into PA, and then into our area...with forcing supported by the primary low over Lake Erie and a developing coastal low southeast of Atlantic City. This will keep an anomalous, moist easterly conveyor of Atlantic moisture aimed at Central NY and Northeast PA. Rainfall amounts will be steady and light, with another 0.25 to 0
50 inches expected for most area
locally up to 0.75 inches over Sullivan & Pike counties possible. Cool overnight lows in the low to mid-40s areawide...with a steady east wind at 8- 15 mph expected. Thursday features more periods of rain as the developing coastal low moves toward southern New England and the primary low becomes vertically stacked over Lake Erie. The easterly flow from the surface up to 700mb continues to provide a constant supply of Atlantic moisture to the area. The heaviest rainfall with the coastal low mainly stays east of our forecast area...with additional light rainfall amounts between 0.10 to 0.33 inches expected for CNY and NE PA. East-southeast winds 8-15 mph continue and daytime highs are exceptionally cool only in the mid-40s to mid- 50s across the region. These readings are close to record low maximums for the calender date. Binghamton's lowest max temperature for May 22nd is 47 degrees set back in 2006, Syracuse's record low max is 51 degrees also set in 2006 and Avoca's record low max of May 22nd is 50 degrees set back in 1909...these records may be in jeopardy. Total rainfall through Thursday evening is forecast to range from 0.50 to 1.50 inches across the forecast area, with most locations close to 1.00 inch.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
315 AM Update...

Upper level cutoff low will rotate to the ENE Thursday night, with a surface low continuing to meander across the CWA through the night before being absorbed by the stronger surface low off the coast of Maine. Scattered rain showers will continue through the overnight hours, but they are expected to be light, with up to an additional 0.10 inches of rain. Overnight temps will be a few degrees cooler than Wed night as we see NE flow from the surface low near Maine push some cooler air into the region.
Lows should bottom out in the low 40s, with upper 30s in the Catskills and northern Oneida county.

Friday will continue to see clouds and rain, although rain showers in the morning should be lighter and more scattered than the previous days. Another upper level shortwave lobe will move into the are in the afternoon, allowing for more widespread showers to develop and rainfall amounts up to 0.10in. Temps will be cold again for the end of May, with highs topping out in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Upper level troughing continues Friday night through Saturday night, with a few mid-level shortwaves rotating through the pattern. NW flow pushing cool air over the lakes will help enhance rain shower chances through this period, although showers that develop will be light and scattered, with a few hundreths of an inch of additional precipitation expected.
Temperatures will remain consistent with the previous days.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 AM update...

The stronger upper level low pushes eastward Sunday as another shortwave moves into the area from the northern Great Lakes.
Light showers will be possible Sunday afternoon through Monday as the lobe of energy pivots over the region. Temps will warm into the 60s Sun and Mon as some warmer air moves over the region.

Uncertainty remains for Tuesday as models are handling the evolution of a trough across the central US differently. A lean toward one model or the other cannot be objectively done this far out so NBM guidance was used, which placed 40-50% chance PoPs over the area for Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A mix of Fuel-Alt and IFR conditions will mainly be in place through the rest of the afternoon as rain continues to move from southwest to northeast. RME and SYR are expected to see restrictions settle in over the next hour or so. There is a window this evening where the rain is expected to become more intermittent before another round of steadier rain moves back in as an area of low pressure gradually approaches from the west.
This low will keep showers around and mostly Fuel-Alt to IFR ceilings in place through the remainder of the TAF with brief bouts of IFR visby possible. There is a low chance for an isolated rumble of thunder as the second batch of rain arrives, mainly from 01-03Z around ELM and AVP as convection currently located over eastern OH and western PA rotates in, so this will be something monitored for the next update.

Winds will remain east to southeast through TAF forecast with occasional gusts to around 20-25 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon into Saturday...Wet pattern persists with restrictions and waves of rain showers likely.

Sunday into Monday...Isolated showers with a low chance of restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.