Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brewerton, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Showers and thunderstorms weaken as they move into the region tonight.

2) A quiet stretch of weather is expected early next week; frost is possible Tuesday morning.

3) An active pattern looks to return mid to late next week, as the overall weather pattern begins to trend warmer into next weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms to develop looks to be present across WNY and WPA late this afternoon into the evening. However, we have been firmly under a stratus deck today due to a warm front lifting northward. As a result, the showers and thunderstorms should weaken quickly as they move through the Finger Lakes eastward to the I-81 corridor due to the loss of instability. The cold front will be slow to exit the region so a few lingering showers Sunday in NEPA are not out of the question. Warmer temperatures tonight given the clouds and highs Sunday should get to at least 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will slowly build into the region by Tuesday.
Winds have trended lighter for the early morning hours Tuesday.
With clear skies and temperatures falling into the low and mid 30's, the potential for frost formation is present. If the potential increases headlines may be needed for portions of the Finger Lakes and Wyoming Valley where the growing season has started.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures slowly warm up for the remainder of the week.
However, a slow moving low pressure system looks to dive into the Ohio Valley and off the Mid-Atlantic coast. While timing differences are present within the ensemble suites, a fairly uniform signal exists for more showers. Highest chances look to be Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Clouds have scattered out around the terminals early this evening, but another round of quick-hitting showers is expected with the next upper-level shortwave and frontal boundary working their way through tonight. With the late-day breaks of sunshine, some modest instability has developed, so an isolated thunderstorm embedded in the line of showers cannot be ruled out, but given low confidence on where some lingering lightning strikes may be, this will be handled via TEMPO as necessary. The main timeframe for the next batch of showers to move through is 03Z-07Z. Behind the frontal boundary, there can be a brief period of lowering ceilings prior to or around daybreak, especially around the NY terminals, before west to northwesterly winds increase during the mid-morning and into the afternoon and usher in drier air and the return of VFR conditions. With a light and variable wind becoming more southwesterly early tomorrow morning, some patchy fog can't be ruled out at AVP coming up the Wyoming Valley.

Wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected tomorrow after 15Z-16Z. A few isolated showers can't be ruled out tomorrow afternoon around AVP, generally after 18Z.

Outlook:

Sunday Night...Mainly VFR.

Monday through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Showers likely with associated restrictions as low pressure pivots into the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.