Tuesday, April20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:54PM Tuesday April 20, 2021 6:18 AM EDT (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 2:01AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 135 Am Edt Tue Apr 20 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Overnight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers after midnight, then occasional showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Rain and snow overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Snow and rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow and rain showers likely in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Thursday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
LOZ044 Expires:202104200915;;828655 FZUS51 KBUF 200535 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 135 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-200915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 200809 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 409 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. A front drifts into the area with morning showers, mainly Finger Lakes to New York Thruway counties, during otherwise fairly quiet weather today. However, a storm system will abruptly move in late tonight through Wednesday with showers, possible thunder, and even some wet snow. Gusty colder weather is expected into Thursday with a few snow showers around.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 400 AM Update . Rather robust system impacts the region in the near term, particularly on Wednesday with rain, snow, thunderstorms, and gusty winds all playing a role in different parts of the area.

Today will be fairly benign, though not without some features impacting the weather. A surface low in Quebec is dragging a cold front into the area early this morning. This front will settle southeast through most of the region while becoming shallower today. At first, Some showers will accompany it for the Finger Lakes to NY Thruway counties. But as it becomes shallow and loses support, showers will struggle to press farther southeast, though at least frontal clouds will get into the Twin Tiers.

With the extra clouds and weak cool air advection behind the front, highs for much of Central NY will be in the lower to mid 50s; mid 50s to near 60 for the Twin Tiers. Meanwhile, sunshine will be more dominant for the Wyoming Valley-Poconos-Southern Catskills, mixing out the shallow front if it even reaches there. Highs will be well into the 60s for those areas; perhaps even near 70 at lower elevations of Pike County.

In the big picture, a strong upper trough will dig into the Midwest today. It will sharpen and nearly take on a negative tilt while pivoting across the Ohio Valley tonight and into our region Wednesday. The upper trough will initiate cyclogenesis of a surface low out of Kentucky, which deepens while traversing West Virginia to Pennsylvania late tonight into New York Wednesday. Ahead of the low, warm air advection will force the frontal zone northward a bit yet not all the way through our region. Contrast will sharpen across the frontal zone which will serve as the track for the low. By late Wednesday morning, the warm sector of the system will be in the 50s-lower 60s south and east of Towanda-Binghamton-Oneonta; yet only mid 30s-mid 40s to the north and west.

At this point, models depict a few to several hundred J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy being generated in the warm sector Wednesday, with stout southwesterly flow throughout most of the column. The abrupt front should have no problem generating a convective line of showers and probably some thunderstorms, which will be increasingly capable of strong gusty winds as it heads east of Interstate 81 in early to mid afternoon before exiting. The Storm Prediction Center designates that area as a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with a damaging wind threat. Behind the front, northwesterly gusts of 25-35 mph will be common as cold air rushes across the region.

Precipitation breaks out late tonight into Wednesday morning as the low moves in, and models are now in agreement that the 925-850mb temperatures northwestern edge of our area will remain below freezing. Steuben-Yates counties, to the NY Thruway corridor and higher elevations of the Finger Lakes, will likely have wet snow for much of this time. Accumulations will be very terrain-dependent as is typical for any snow this late in the season, with higher elevations probably receiving 1-3 inches through Wednesday; additional accumulations thereafter. Farther south and east, most of the precipitation will be in the form of a few tenths of an inch of rain, though a brief shot of wet snow will probably occur behind the front as it exits for as far south as the Twin Tiers.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. 400 AM Update . Main concerns in the short term are focused on the potential for accumulating lake enhanced snow across central NY Wed night through Thursday morning with a cold and gusty northwest wind through Thu evening, and warmer/drier conditions on Friday.

Cold upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes will be tracking eastward Wed night and Thu as a surface low lifts newd through nrn New England/Maine. The air mass wrapping around the back side of the upper low will be Canadian in nature and cold enough to generate lake enhanced snow showers during this time. Lake Ontario surface temperatures are sitting at about +7 deg C, and the air mass pushing in Wed night will have 850mb temps around -10 to -11 deg C. This temperature differential will induce low level lapse rates and lake induced instability sufficient for snow showers off of Ontario into central NY. The challenge will be determining how much of this snow will be able to accumulate this late in the season. Latest NYS Mesonet 5 cm soil temperatures are hovering around 45 to 52 deg F . and may cool a few degrees before the snow begins Wed night, but still may be too warm for much accumulation. The most favorable areas will be elevations above 1500 ft in the eastern Finger Lakes and western Catskills where around 2 to 3 inches is possible . and generally an inch or less for other areas and lower elevations in central NY.

Temperatures Wed night/Thu morning are expected drop down into the mid to upper 20s . some 20 deg below average. The other concern during this time will be the gusty northwest winds. High pressure building in quickly from the west will be tightening the sfc pres gradient against a deepening sfc low over Maine. Much of the region can expect sustained nw winds around 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 35 mph Thu morning and through the afternoon. This will make it feel like teens to the 20s through the day.

The lake enhanced snow will start to mix with rain by the mid to late morning hours Thu as the boundary layer warms and eventually become mostly rain and taper off later in the day and into the evening hours. Temperatures will warm into the upper 30s and lower/mid 40s . and then cool back down into the lower to mid 30s Thu night.

High pressure is expected to build eastward through the region by Friday with temperatures climbing into the 50s in central NY and into the upper 50s and lower 60s in ne PA. Weather conditions should remain dry on Friday with increasing sun through the day.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. 400 AM Update . Dry and quiet weather conditions are expected Friday night into early Saturday with weak high pressure in place. The ridge amplifies slightly Saturday morning in response to a digging trough across the upper Midwest gradually phasing with a southern stream short wave moving across the TN Valley into the mid Atlantic region. This system will draw north a slightly warmer air mass and an uptick in moisture as well. Temperatures on Saturday will warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s with rain showers sweeping in from the southwest. The chance of rain will continue into Sunday before tapering off west to east late in the weekend. As the rain tapers off another push of cold Canadian air will be felt across the region Sunday night into Monday. There may be some snow mixed in on the back edge of the system, but still a great deal of uncertainty at this time.

A cool and dry air mass becomes situated across the region by Monday with highs into the 50s . gusty northwest winds and a fair amount of cloud cover.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A frontal boundary sags into the area through mid morning, with MVFR ceilings and a few showers for KSYR-KRME. MVFR ceiling will probably also reach KITH and possibly briefly KBGM. Otherwise VFR will dominate most of today through early evening, though ceilings will begin to lower later as next system approaches. MVFR should arrive at KAVP prior to 06Z Tuesday; remainder of terminals to follow shortly after as precipitation develops. Variable/light southwest wind this morning, will veer west to northwest 8-12 knots as the front slips through during the day. Further veering occurs this evening; becoming light northeast KBGM-KELM-KAVP-KITH and northwest to north KSYR-KRME.

Outlook .

Late Tuesday night through Wednesday . Abrupt low pressure system and restrictions; rain showers in time mixing with snow showers and some thunder possible as well during the transition.

Wednesday night through Thursday evening . Gusty northwest winds with scattered lake effect snow showers/associated restrictions, mainly for the NY terminals.

Late Thursday night through Saturday night . VFR, then a system arrives Saturday night with rain/deteriorating conditions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . MDP SHORT TERM . BJT LONG TERM . BJT AVIATION . MDP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi49 min WSW 11 G 17 42°F 1010.6 hPa39°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi79 min WSW 7 G 12 43°F 1011.5 hPa (+1.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi49 min 42°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi25 minNW 810.00 miLight Rain44°F39°F83%1010.6 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi25 minW 910.00 miLight Rain41°F37°F86%1010.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3SW4W7W6SW65NW9
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W7W10NE3S5SE6SE4SE5SE7SE4S5SW6W3SW5SW3W12NW8
1 day agoSW6SW6W8W11W6W6W8W10
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W17W11W11W5CalmCalmNW3S4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW7NW7NW4NW3NW64N6NW9W9W9NW12
G19
NW12NW8W7CalmW3W4W3CalmW6W7SW4SW4SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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