Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday August 9, 2020 4:35 AM EDT (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 10:50AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202008090915;;158555 Fzus51 Kbuf 090542 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 142 Am Edt Sun Aug 9 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-090915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 142 Am Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Overnight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 71 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 090809 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 409 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Today will be fair and seasonably warm. Warmer and more humid weather will return Monday through Thursday. This warmer and more humid air will bring mainly afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. 245 am update . Main concerns in the near term are focused on the patchy valley fog this morning, the potential for isolated weak showers this afternoon, the hot and humid conditions expected Monday along with the threat for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Synoptic conditions this morning defined by a nearly zonal upper level flow and weak high pressure at the surface across much of the Northeast. The air mass is relatively dry overall as well. Light surface winds and a dry/suppressive air mass will continue to create favorable conditions for fog this morning. The presence of a thin layer of high clouds may limit the amt/extent of fog, but still expecting patchy valley fog through about 8-9 am this morning.

An upper level short wave is currently tracking east through the n-central Great Lakes, and will move through nrn NY late this morning. Large scale lift along this trough axis will sweep across the Northeast and act to mainly increase cloud cover over n-central NY, but there is also the potential for a few light rain showers as well. Temperatures will rise into the 80s this afternoon, but with limited humidity, the amt of instability will be low enough to keep thunderstorms from forming.

Tonight, favorable conditions for fog return with skies clearing off south of the Finger Lakes, across the upper Susquehanna and into ne PA. Temperatures will fall into the 60s, and combine with light surface winds to help with the formation of valley fog.

The surface high finally shifts to the east on Monday which will act to create a more robust sw flow into PA/NY, and usher in a warmer air mass. Temperatures will climb into the lower 90s for a good portion of the forecast area. Dew points will inch up into the lower 70s, which will allow heat index values to reach into the mid to upper 90s in some locations. Areas of central NY may need a Heat Advisory Monday afternoon. There is also a threat of thunderstorms Monday afternoon. BL CAPE values above 1000 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates will allow for a positive setup for isolated-scattered thunderstorms. The lack of deep layer shear will keep the severe threat to a minimum, but weak steering flow and PWATs around 1.5 inches may cause a few slow-moving thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours to produce localized flooding issues.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. With the loss of daytime heating, any remaining showers or thunderstorms end by sunset Monday evening. Skies will be mostly clear, aside from some patchy valley fog. Lows will likely be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. With dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s, it will remain quite humid as well.

A slow moving cold front will approach the area on Tuesday from the Great Lakes. Model guidance has trended considerably slower and weaker with this front compared to prior runs. As a result, now expecting Tuesday morning to remain completely dry. Also reduced PoPs significantly for Tuesday afternoon. Greatest chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms remains across Central NY, with a much lesser chance further south and east.

The more noteworthy story for Tuesday will likely end up being the heat and humidity. Highs will likely range from the upper 80s to lower 90s (mid 80s across the Catskills). Some of the valley locations may even climb to the mid 90s. Dewpoints look to be mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will lead to widespread heat indices in the 90s. Valley locations and the northern Finger Lakes/Syracuse area will likely have heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. If these trends continue, these areas may end up needing Heat Advisories as we get closer. The one big question mark is if isolated to scattered afternoon convection keep temperatures down a bit.

Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening with the frontal boundary remaining nearby. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expecting coverage to gradually diminish overnight. Otherwise, expecting partly cloudy skies with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints once again remain in the mid to upper 60s.

The above mentioned frontal boundary likely stalls just south of the area on Wednesday. This will lead to another day of diurnally-driven scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. Greatest chance for this will be closer to the frontal boundary in Northeast PA and the Twin Tiers. Highs will likely be a bit cooler on Wednesday, mainly in the 80s.

With the loss of daytime heating, any lingering showers or thunderstorms taper off overnight Wednesday. Lows will likely be in the 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The above mentioned frontal boundary very slowly drifts southward during during the mid-late week, but remains nearly stationary. With this boundary around, diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, especially across the southern half of the area (Twin Tiers into Northeast PA). That being said, no particular day looks to be a washout at this time since coverage will be isolated to scattered and mainly concentrated during the afternoon.

Temperatures remain above normal during much of the long term period, with highs mainly in the 80s. By next weekend, a slightly cooler airmass moves in, likely bringing temperatures back closer to normal for this time of the year.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Most area terminals VFR through the forecast period except for a period of valley fog at KELM and possibly at KITH as well. May see a 3 hour window of at least 1/2SM in fog with ceilings around 200 feet at KELM this morning. Confidence remains weak to moderate. A lower chance of MVFR vsbys in light fog at KITH between 08-12Z this morning. Rest of terminals will see mainly high clouds overnight with patchy mid clouds at times. Then during the day today there will be a scattered deck of VFR cumulus across much of the region.

Winds will be light west to southwest under 10 knots.

Outlook .

Sunday night through Monday . Mainly VFR, except at KELM where valley fog is possible again. Small chance of a shower/isolated thunderstorm Monday afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday . Chances for restrictions in showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJT NEAR TERM . BJT SHORT TERM . BJG LONG TERM . BJG AVIATION . BJT/DJN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi47 min S 6 G 8 69°F 1019.2 hPa61°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi35 min SW 8.9 G 12 68°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi47 min 66°F 1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi41 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F64°F87%1019.1 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi41 minSSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F63°F87%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E3E3CalmSE33CalmCalmCalmSW7CalmW9W6NW76N8NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmN3CalmE3E4E5SE3CalmE8CalmNE5NE6NE6NE7E6E4NE3E3SE3CalmE3CalmE4Calm
2 days agoSW3CalmS3SW543N5CalmCalmSW4E4N4NE4E3N9N6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.