Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 4:31PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 7:24 PM EST (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 3:42PMMoonset 5:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 643 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales in the afternoon. Snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 10 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Wednesday night..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers. Waves 11 to 16 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Snow showers likely in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Sunday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LOZ044 Expires:201912110415;;163282 FZUS51 KBUF 102343 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 643 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-110415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 102302 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 602 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will continue to move east of the region tonight resulting in an end to rain and snow. Another weak cold front brings a few snow showers along the NY Thruway tomorrow evening before high pressure builds into the area to end the workweek. Another low pressure system moves up the coast Saturday bringing rain.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A cold front as of late afternoon is located across NE PA and the Southern Catskills and will continue slowly moving east tonight. Colder air will continue to advect into the region behind the front. The frontal boundary should slow enough this evening due to a weak area of low pressure moving along it to allow the cold air to chance precipitation to snow for a few hours across NE PA and the Southern Catskills. Snow accumulations in these locations look to be around an inch and to some degree confined to grass. Still HWO wording is maintained for a few slick spots around the morning commute tomorrow.

Further west, enough lake moisture looks to get involved with the west and northwest flow for some scattered snow showers tonight. A few grassy coatings will be possible with the most likely timing in the early evening. A RGEM/NAM blend was used to approximate the locations of these lake effect snow showers. Low temperatures tonight should fall into the 20's across the region.

On Wednesday, winds will shift to southwest ahead of a weak cold front moving through the Great Lakes. This should largely shut off any chance for Lake Effect snow showers. However, with an arctic airmass in place modeled boundary layer temperatures indicate a struggle into the low 30's for afternoon highs. Winds shift to westerly and northwesterly Wednesday night. Modeled wind directions will tend to favor locations along the NY Thruway for a period of more sustained Lake Effect snow showers Wednesday night with a few inches potentially falling. The highest totals should fall in northwestern Oneida county. Lows Wednesday night will fall down into the 10's.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. 130 PM Update .

Lake effect snow will be continuing Thursday morning across the Syracuse/Utica/Rome area off of Lake Ontario. The low level flow will shift from 290 to 250 shifting the snow showers north and out of the area by afternoon. Snowfall amounts during the day of an inch or less.

Friday morning high pressure will be at the surface centered over PA. This will provide some sunshine but colder than normal temperatures. Temperatures in the teens rise to around 30 Friday afternoon.

The high pressure quickly moves east to Nova Scotia Thursday night. A southerly flow sets up so it will be hard to keep any low level cold air. Clouds move in but precipitation stays out. Low temperatures from the upper teens east to the low and mid 20s central and west.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. 130 pm update . Little change. Upped pops to categorical late Friday night. Friday to Saturday event will be another rain event. Progressive but eastern areas could get an inch of rain. Precipitation may start as a brief period of mix Friday evening in the Tug Hill and western Catskills with temperatures near freezing.

340 AM Update . Respite late Thursday into early Friday will be short-lived, as pattern remains active through the weekend.

Southwesterly flow will quickly induce warm air advection and eventually increased moisture as well. After lows of upper teens-lower 20s Thursday night, temperatures will bounce into mid 30s-lower 40s Friday with thickening clouds. Temperature may dip slightly late Friday as precipitation starts to move in with initial wet-bulbing. Thermal profiles support mostly if not all liquid precipitation, thus we will have to keep an eye on whether or not any surface temperatures in higher elevations east of I-81 could lead to spotty ice as the rain moves in.

Temperatures continue to rise Friday night, to highs of 40s-near 50 Saturday with likely rain as low pressure moves through the region. Behind the low, a shot of somewhat cooler air should knock temperatures down back closer to average, with a continued chance of precipitation yet uncertainties for type and amounts.

Models do spread a bit by Monday, with a range between colder air having better success continuing to advect into the region with resultant lake effect snow, or instead fairly flat flow and a dry air mass with quiet weather.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A colder and drier air mass will begin to spread across the region tonight and allow any lingering rain/snow showers to taper off. May see a few light snow showers and MVFR vsbys at KSYR, KITH, KELM or KBGM this evening before 06Z . and a few trailing light rain showers at KAVP before 04Z. MVFR/fuel- alternate required ceilings are likely through the night at KITH, KELM, KBGM and KAVP. Ceilings at KSYR and KRME are expected to improve to VFR before 06Z.

Ceilings KITH and south should improve to VFR after 13-15Z with any precip at KSYR or KRME holding off until after 00Z Thur.

Winds will be west to northwest 5 to 10 knots through tonight and into Wed morning. Winds increase out of the west around 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt possible in the afternoon.

Outlook .

Wed night and Thursday . Snow showers possible near KSYR and KRME with MVFR-IFR restrictions, otherwise VFR expected.

Thursday night . VFR expected areawide.

Friday . VFR to start, then rain moves in late with possible restrictions.

Friday night through Sunday . Restrictions likely in periods of rain through Saturday then rain and snow showers on Sunday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MWG NEAR TERM . MWG SHORT TERM . TAC LONG TERM . MDP/TAC AVIATION . BJT/MWG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi55 min WNW 17 G 22 1017.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi25 min NW 19 G 22 30°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi61 min 29°F 1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S17
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G25
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S16
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S13
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G22
S15
G21
S15
G23
SW7
G18
S11
G17
SW8
G17
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G17
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G19
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G30
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S20
G28
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G30
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G28
S18
G33
S16
G27
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G24
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G27
S16
G20
S15
G22
S15
G21
S13
G20
S12
G18
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SE12
G17
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G19
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G18
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G14
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G18
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NW14
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W11
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S7
G14
S5
G9
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G12
SE12
G15
SE10
G14
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G14
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G17
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G19
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G21
SE16
G22
SE12
G21
S15
G21
S16
G25
S14
G24
S14
G26
S16
G28
S17
G31
S20
G29
S18
G27

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi31 minWNW 113.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F28°F85%1017.4 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi31 minWNW 76.00 miLight Snow32°F25°F75%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S13S10S10S9S8S6SW7SW8SW11W9SW12W13NW13NW13NW11W9W14W12W14
G18
NW12
G19
W14NW11
1 day agoS17
G21
S11S9
G17
S14
G18
S14
G20
S9
G18
S10S9S8SE5E6SE8SE11SE10SE11SE7SE7SE5SE7SE9SE5S11
G19
S16
G23
S12
G20
2 days agoSW4S3CalmE3SE4SE4E5E6E4E7E9E7E9SE7SE4SE14
G21
S12
G18
S10
G19
S6
G25
S11
G21
SE7
G17
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G24
S17
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G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.