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LOZ044 Expires:202404240915;;269447 Fzus51 Kbuf 240222 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1022 pm edt Tue apr 23 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-240915- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1022 pm edt Tue apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am edt Wednesday through Wednesday evening - .
Overnight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north. Rain showers in the morning, then scattered rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south less than 10 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 241745 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 145 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
Lingering showers, that may briefly changeover to a few wet flakes before ending, will taper off from north to south this afternoon with lagging cloud cover then slowly clearing out from north to south through the remainder of the day. An expansive area of Canadian high pressure will then assure us of fair dry weather Thursday and Friday. While some showers will be likely this coming weekend, especially on Saturday, a good amount of dry time will be built in. Looking further down the road, we can look forward to a summer-like warm up Sunday and Monday with the mercury surging well into the 70s and even a few spots into the 80s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Downright Cold Tonight

Back edge of rain shower activity now working across the Lake Ontario and the North Country, and will continue to taper off from north to south through the afternoon. A few wet flakes still possible across the higher terrain before precipitation ends, mainly over the Tug Hill.

As we work through the afternoon, notably drier air will work southwards from Ontario. This in combination with increased subsidence will lead to slow but pronounced clearing from north to south. Unfortunately, this could mean that areas closer to the Pennsylvania border could be fairly cloudy right up to sunset.

In any case, it will be chilly for most areas today, as a gusty northerly wind will accompany temperatures falling into the low and mid 40s, and into the upper 30s higher terrain.

A large Canadian surface high over the upper Great Lakes this evening will then gradually expand across the entire Great Lakes region overnight and Thursday. This will guarantee fair dry weather throughout the region, although temperatures will be solidly below normal. Mins tonight will be solidly in the 20s away from the immediate lake shores with highs on Thursday only ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. These readings will average some 10 degrees below typical late April levels.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will remain camped over our region Thursday night and Friday. Subsidence will limit cloud cover, and this lack of cloud cover and light winds, with a dry lower atmosphere will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions Thursday night, with lows near freezing along the lakeshore, to lower 20s inland.

A warm front will near our region Friday night with increasing clouds and rain showers reaching the western Southern Tier late.
Ahead of the rain, southeast downslope winds could reach 35 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Warm front enters our region Saturday, and accompanied by a shortwave aloft a brief period of rain showers is expected. Basin average rainfall will be on the order of a tenth to a third of an inch. Some thunder may occur with limited MUCAPE values less than 500 J/KG, especially over Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier.

A few showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, may linger behind the front later Saturday and Saturday night with again limited instability. Mild Saturday night with lows in the lower 50s inland and east of Lake Ontario, to near 60 across the favorable downslope areas of WNY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
On Sunday the initial surface low will wash out across northern Quebec...while the second cutter system develops into the northern Plains States
These developments
coupled with continued building upper level ridging aloft...will help to stall out the initial system's cold front to our north...leaving our area awash in warm air typical of late spring/early summer with 850 mb temps reaching the +11C to +13C range by afternoon. Such warmth will be supportive of highs reaching well into the 70s south of Lake Ontario...and into the lower 70s across the North Country. The warmest readings overall will be found across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes...where it's appearing increasingly likely that some locations (for example, Dansville) could crack the 80 degree mark. With synoptic-scale forcing notably weaker with our region lying within the warm sector and under the building upper level ridge...any convective potential will likely be more dependent upon diurnal heating of our warm and borderline humid airmass...and with this in mind have focused some chance PoPs across the typical areas inland from the lakes during the heating of the day...though the day is also likely to feature a considerable amount of dry time overall.
Any such activity should then tend to fade with the loss of heating and continued building of the upper ridge Sunday night...leaving behind mainly dry and unseasonably warm conditions for the bulk of the night...with lows mostly ranging between 55 and 60.

Expect similar conditions to prevail on Monday as the second cutter low makes its way northeastward and across Lake Superior...with temps likely to reach even a few degrees higher than those of Sunday as 850 mb T's climb to between +12C and +15C. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms may then arrive Monday night and Tuesday as the surface low makes its way to Quebec and slides its trailing cold front across our region...with somewhat cooler (but still well above normal) temperatures expected on Tuesday owing to the frontal passage.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Widespread IFR/MVFR CIGS late this morning, along with some lingering rain or higher terrain wet snow showers, as the southward bound slow moving cold front now enters the western Southern Tier.
During the course of the afternoon these low CIGS will slowly thin and clear from north to south, leaving mainly VFR weather for the latter portion of the day, last to improve toward the NY/PA line (KJHW). Along with the pronounced clearing, a gusty north to northwest wind will occasionally gust to 30 knots at times.

High pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes this evening will then slowly settle over the region tonight and Thursday. This will guarantee fair dry weather weather with VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE
In the wake of the passing cold front, winds have shifted to the north and freshened. This has resulted in low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario, while the short fetch and relative brief duration of the elevated winds will only produce choppy to occasionally rough waters on Lake Erie.

Expansive high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes this evening will then gradually build across the lower Great Lakes overnight and Thursday. This will significantly lower winds and waves throughout the region tonight, with only gentle breezes and negligible wave action expected for Thursday as the surface high passes overhead.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042- 045.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043-044.

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