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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1255 Am Est Fri Dec 1 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est early this morning...
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Monday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain and snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 011426 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 926 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will bring a steady rain to the area today, followed by a couple more areas of low pressure crossing the region over the weekend. This will bring generally unsettled, but mild weather with periodic rain chances lasting through early next week. It may become just cold enough by Monday to allow some wet snow to mix in.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak cold front just to our north stretching from the northern shore of Lake Ontario to the Saint Lawrence valley where it will remain generally stalled out through at least the first half of the weekend.

A quick moving, but potent shortwave over the Ohio Valley early this morning will move northeast across western and northcentral NY later this morning through this afternoon bringing a widespread, steady rain to the entire region. The shield of steady rain is now moving into Western NY, and will reach the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes by late morning, and the eastern Lake Ontario region by early to mid afternoon. Precipitation type will be all rain through early this evening.

There may be a brief mix with some wet snow across the highest terrain east of Lake Ontario, before steadier precipitation moves east of the area this evening. A relatively quick mover will keep rainfall amounts modest with basin averages of around one-third to under one-half inch expected. Hydro issues not a concern, even for areas with deep snowpack. Mainly a range of 40s for highs with some upper 30s across the higher terrain.

First wave moves northeast of the area with just the slight chance of a few scattered showers with dry time built in through much of the overnight. However, next area of low pressure in the pipeline will be moving northeast along the stalled frontal boundary still lingering just to our north. This will be a weaker system with most of the measurable rainfall falling across western NY Saturday morning before tapering off to a few lingering showers. Steadier showers will then move across Lake Ontario into northcentral NY later Saturday morning before exiting there by mid afternoon or so.
Rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or so across these aforementioned areas. Expect just mainly scattered showers from the interior Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes as these areas remain to the south of the low track with spotty lighter rainfall amounts.
With lingering moisture and stalled boundary nearby, cannot rule out a few scattered showers through the remainder of the day, however should see some dry time as well. Lows will be mainly mid to upper 30s Friday night. A mild Saturday on tap with highs mainly mid and upper 40s, with some lower 50s possible across the Southern Tier valleys.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A weak baroclinic zone and associated stalled frontal boundary over our region Saturday night should be relatively inactive...as the crest of a broad ridge will be passing through while moisture will be limited to that under a staunch inversion in the vcnty of 5kft.
Have lowered pops as a result...but still the night to mainly cloudy with mins generally ranging from 35 to 40 (well abv normal).

It will become much more unsettled as we push through Sunday. A very robust shortwave over the mid western states in the morning will plow across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening.
A 175 kt UL jet supporting this system will be found stretching from about Kentucky to New England...so the lift provided under the left front quad of this anomalously strong jet will combine with 100dm hgt falls and a divergent upper level flow to nearly guarantee a period of steady rain to end the weekend. Just a note that the ECMWF remains the furthest south with the track of the associated sfc low...while its 'physics cousin' the CanNH and also the GFS bring a complex low up across our region. This should keep the vast majority of the pcpn in liquid form into at least the early evening hours.

Sunday night...the lift associated with a vigorous shortwave and a broad attendant sfc low will push off across the St Lawrence valley and New England. This will allow widespread rain early in the evening to taper off during the course of the overnight...while colder air in the wake of the aforementioned system will encourage the remaining pcpn to change over to at least a mix of rain and wet snow. Negligible snow amounts are anticipated at this time.

On Monday...the next in a series of shortwaves will drop southeast across the region. This will prompt the next round of mixed rain and snow showers with the most focused pcpn being found southeast of both lakes. Given marginal near sfc temps in the upper 30s to near 40 and only nominal lake enhancement...am not impressed for anything more than a coating to an inch of snow accumulation for any area.

Weak mid level ridging will traverse our region Monday night. This will help to minimize the potential for many snow showers...although a weak lake response under a capped environment will be found southeast of both lakes.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A narrow wedge of surface high pressure and shortwave ridging will move across the lakes on Tuesday. Despite 850H temps remaining cold, the lowering subsidence inversion and mid-level dry air will put a large damper on the lake response east/southeast of the lakes.
Uncertainty grows moving further into the mid-week period as one shortwave trough passes southeast of the area across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night, as another pivots around a mid-level closed low over the Canadian Maritimes. Have leaned towards a drier solution based on deterministic trends and as overall moisture looks limited, though best chances for precip Tuesday night into Wednesday will be across the western Southern Tier. Next trough axis will approach the region from the northwest sometime Thursday, with increasing chances for rain and snow showers across the area.

Otherwise...The troughing pattern across the forecast area will cause temperatures to hedge near to slightly below normal through much of next week, with highs mainly in the 30s and lows ranging in the 20s...Though likely colder across the Tug Hill and Western Dacks with highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mainly low VFR CIGS through mid morning, however already seeing some isolated MVFR CIGS across the Southern Tier as low level moisture increases ahead of a wave of low pressure approaching from the southwest. Conditions will only deteriorate from here on out.

Wave of low pressure moves across the area today bringing a widespread steady rain. Expect conditions to worsen through the day as MVFR CIGS continue to develop through the mid and late morning hours, with IFR CIGS becoming more widespread by midday into the afternoon hours. Rain will be steady later this morning into the afternoon, but not that heavy, so expect no worse than mainly MVFR VSBYs.

Steadier rain tapers off late in the day into the evening, with mainly MVFR/IFR conditions across the terminals. Expect IFR to once again become more widespread tonight as low level moisture will again be on the increase ahead of the next area of low pressure approaching from the southwest.

Outlook...

Saturday...Restrictions likely in widespread rain and possible fog.
Sunday and Monday...Restrictions possible in scattered to numerous rain showers, possibly mixed with snow for higher terrain.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible in scattered lake effect mixed showers.

MARINE
Southwest flow has continued to come down as expected and was allowed to finally let the one remaining Small Craft Advisory expire this morning.

Otherwise, winds and waves will continue to subside today, with conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through much of this weekend. The exception will be across central and western Lake Ontario as east-northeast flow freshens Sunday afternoon possibly bringing a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to these areas during this time.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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