Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Rose, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cold weather will continue through tonight, with scattered snow showers lasting through this afternoon.

2) Dry and warming temperatures expected Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold weather will continue through tonight, with scattered snow showers lasting through this afternoon.

GOES water vapor imagery shows a deep upper level trough across the Great Lakes region this morning. A pool of anomalously cold air for mid-April will drift across the area today. Temperatures at 850mb are expected to reach -11C this morning before increasing tonight. Following a chilly start, high temperatures will only reach the mid 30s to low 40s today, which is 15 to 20 degrees below normal. As surface high pressure and drier air move into the region, mostly clear skies and light winds will allow overnight temperatures to fall into the 20s, with some teens possible across the Saint Lawrence/Black River Valley.

Cold, northwest flow will support a chance of lake effect and upslope snow showers across the Niagara Frontier and south of Lake Ontario this morning. Today, steepening low- level lapse rates and diminishing low- level moisture will support isolated to scattered snow showers across the region. However, with drier air moving in, coverage is expected to be less than Sunday. No accumulation is expected during the daytime hours. Dry conditions are expected across the region tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather along with warming temperatures expected after Wednesday.

High pressure will bring mainly dry weather Tuesday with temperatures beginning to modify. Given H850 T's will still be - 8C to -2C expect highs in the 40s across the North Country with a range 50s near 60F elsewhere. A shortwave will then quickly dive southeast Tuesday eve/night through the northwest flow bringing with it a chance of a few light showers.

After that...it looks dry Wednesday with temperatures continuing to modify. Unsettled weather potentially returns Friday eve and then may last into the weekend.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Lake effect snow showers are possible across the Niagara Frontier and south of Lake Ontario this morning. Additional scattered snow showers may develop through this afternoon.
Surface high pressure and drier air will build into the region this afternoon and showers will come to an end. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected in lake clouds and snow showers, with VFR conditions elsewhere through this afternoon.

Widespread VFR conditions are expected tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance of rain showers mainly late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of afternoon showers.

MARINE
Elevated northwest winds and waves will diminish on the Lakes through this morning. Winds will back and increase this afternoon resulting in another brief round of 15-20 knot winds across eastern portions of Lake Ontario. Lighter winds will then follow tonight as the axis of surface high pressure crosses the Lower Great Lakes.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ043>045.