Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Constantia, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
950 PM Update...

The shower activity has tapered off across much of the area and skies have started to clear. There are some pockets of fog beginning to develop, so did add in some patchy fog for tonight through early tomorrow morning, although with increasing clouds ahead of a morning round of showers and thunderstorms, much of the fog may be through around 08-09Z. The CAMs were a bit slower with the arrival with the morning convection, so did slow down the eastward progression after 10Z. The rest of the forecast remains on track at this time.

345 PM Update:

As an upper level trough axis is moving through this afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed. These thunderstorms have been on the weaker side with somewhat limited instability and very little shear. That being said, with a weak steering flow present, these showers and thunderstorms have been on the slow moving side. As a result, while flooding has not been an issue so far, there is still a possibility for some isolated instances of flash flooding.

The scattered showers and slow moving isolated thunderstorms quickly diminish this evening, with dry weather expected for most of the overnight. Stratus clouds and patchy fog are likely to develop once again. A decaying MCS/QLCS quickly approaches from the west late at night into early Friday morning; likely reaching Steuben/Bradford counties around daybreak. This line should be weakening as it rolls through due to limited instability in place. It will be mild overnight with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

The weakening line of showers and isolated thunderstorms quickly moves east across most of the forecast area Friday morning. After this initial morning convection, conditions should dry out and clouds break for partly sunny skies heading into the afternoon and evening hours. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the afternoon along a cold front. However there is some question on how dry mid level air and capping could limit convective development.
Otherwise, Friday will be rather warm and humid with highs in the upper 70s to mid- 80s and surface dew points in the low to mid-60s.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday night with very brief weak ridging building in and the loss of diurnal heating. Lows are expected to be mainly in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
300 PM Update...

Warm front moves through the region Saturday morning bringing a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Showers will move from west to east making an exit by early afternoon. The timing of the initial round will suppress/lack instability, model sounding show a cap in the morning hours. Once the showers move through skies attempt to clear behind allowing for some afternoon heating. Temperatures will be warm with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s with some spots in the low 80s in northeast PA. NAM sounding shows CAPE values ranging 1,000 to 1,500 J/Kg with 30-35 knots of bulk shear. The cap is not expected to break until the afternoon hours when a cold front moves through. This will set off a second round of showers and storms with more potential to produce isolated strong to severe storms. SPC has upgraded most of our region to a slight risk with a fraction of our western region still in a marginal risk.
Otherwise the frontal system moves out of the region Saturday evening, with showers and thunderstorms ending with its departure. A brief dry period follows overnight with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Upper level low continues to rotate as it moves east with wrap around moisture allowing showers to linger into Sunday. Model guidance has slight variations of the placement of the low keeping showers mainly in central NY. Although showers may also extend into northeast PA as well. Temperatures on Sunday will be cool behind the front with highs climbing into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Showers will dissipate Sunday night with drier conditions settling in.
Overnight lows will fall into the low to upper 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
300 PM Update...

Cool pattern continues into the start of the week with northwest flow in place along with an upper level ridge building in. Dry conditions will finally hold Monday with high pressure building in at the surface. Skies will clear out by the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s for most of the region with some areas in northeast PA reaching the mid 60s. Similar cool and dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with a system passing just to our south. While the next round of showers is not expected until Wednesday, there is some uncertainty on the timing and ensemble, regardless NBM guidance still supports a slight chance PoPs. Uncertainty continues towards the end of the period but model guidance hints at another chance for showers Thursday.
Otherwise temperatures remain cool during this period with highs in the low 50s to upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s with some patchy frost may be possible Monday night.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

150 AM Update

Mainly VFR conditions expected through daybreak at our taf sites. There is valley and patchy fog forming early this morning, along with an area of MVFR stratus clouds over the Catskills and Poconos. High clouds are starting to overspread the area from western NY at this time, and the thinking is that these will prevent thick fog from developing in the Chemung river valley. ELM did see some brief LIFR fog, but it dissipated. Kept a mention of MVFR fog in the taf here through daybreak or 10-11z.

A weakening line of showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms is forecast to push into our western terminals between about 12-14z this morning, reaching BGM--ITH-SYR by 13-15z and finally AVP by 14-16z. There is uncertainty in just how strong this line of showers and potential t'storms will be as it moves through. For this updated added in tempo groups at all taf sites except RME, for MVFR vsbys, CIGs with moderate to locally heavy rain...best chance to see TSRA will be at ELM with this morning's activity.

PROB30 groups for additional scattered thunderstorms were added for all taf sites between about 18-23z but confidence is currently low for exact timing at any one terminal.

Outlook...

Tonight through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunder possible, along with associated restrictions.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.