Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Constantia, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) An upper level trough will bring showers and storms this afternoon, especially east of the I81 corridor.

2) Frontal system will push through the region tomorrow with more chances for showers and thunderstorms along with increasing winds.
Greatest chance for widespread showers and storms will be during the morning, with higher chances across north central NY during the afternoon.

3) High pressure pushes in on Friday with cooler and drier conditions through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another weak shortwave will move into the region this afternoon, bringing additional chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms.
While only limited instability is expected due to minimal sunshine, forecast soundings still indicate 400-500 J/Kg of MLCAPE, which should be sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon into early evening, especially east of the I-81 corridor. Activity will quickly diminish around sunset as the short wave exits to the east.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A brief lull in precipitation is expected this evening between the departing shortwave and an approaching warm front. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front will move into the region late tonight. Additional showers associated with the cold front will move through tomorrow morning and continue into the early afternoon. Some of this activity may be tied to a remnant MCS tracking east from Michigan this evening. However, the timing of these showers and storms appears unfavorable for severe weather tomorrow. Model soundings show modest CAPE values tomorrow afternoon along with favorable wind shear values. This suggests that if any strong to severe thunderstorms were to develop, strong to damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. SPC continues to keep most of the region in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with the far eastern portion under a slight risk.

Despite thunderstorm development and severe potential, forecast soundings still indicate strong winds mixing down to the surface along with strengthening thickness gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. These conditions will support gusty winds Thursday morning through the afternoon. Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible, with locally higher gusts across areas of complex terrain. Winds will be increasing early tomorrow morning and persist through the afternoon. Wind Advisories were issued for portions of the Western Mohawk Valley and Eastern Finger Lakes regions. In summary, it will be a windy day, and only modest convective mixing would be needed to produce higher gusts.

As drier air filters into the region late tomorrow afternoon/early evening, showers should gradually come to an end. High pressure will build in tomorrow night into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Surface high pressure will build in behind the cold front for Friday. This will bring drier and cooler conditions through the weekend with low humidity. However, there will remain some upper troughing over the region, so can't rule out some diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity around the peak heating hours of the afternoon. The next chance for widespread rain will come towards the beginning of next week, but any thunderstorm potential with this next system is uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A weak wave passing through this afternoon may generate isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps thunder. Monitor individual TAFs for amendments; confidence as of 18Z was only high enough for KRME to include a thunder TEMPO Group. Fairly quiet conditions late afternoon through evening, but an approaching strong low pressure system will cause increasing flow just off the surface for a period of Low Level Wind Shear during the early morning, was well as some showers. Embedded thunder cannot be ruled out through Thursday morning-midday, yet confidence is very low. Either way, winds turn rather gusty out of the southwest as a frontal system carries into the region.

Outlook:

Thursday afternoon through evening...Gusty southwest to west winds as strong low pressure system finishes moving through.
Still a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR, though isolated to scattered showers possible each afternoon with associated intermittent restrictions. Westerly wind gusts could exceed 20 knots Friday- Saturday afternoons.

Late Sunday night through Monday...Wave of low pressure with rain, restrictions, and possible embedded thunder.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009- 015>018-036-037.